Towering towards 2011

Copyright V.Angelo

Hymn to the imagination, and happy New Year.

The rule of the Kremlin

I am not sure the Kremlin realises the damaging impact of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's farcical trial on Western European views of present-day Russia. The fact of the matter is that there is little trust left on rule of law in Russia.

It is the rule of Putin that matters, this is how the European citizen sees the situation. And many think that investing in Russia is too hazardous, be it about investing money or political trust.

I have written in the recent past some optimistic pieces about Russia. I am one of those who believes in deepening the engagement. But today's incomprehensible court decision is a major hurdle.

Chad on its own

This evening I had a brief discussion with the Chadian leadership. They think the international community is not doing enough to assist the country on the road to peace and progress. They also believe Chad has been a barrier against the expansion of religious fundamentalism in the Sahel but that role is not fully appreciated by the key donor countries in the West.

Chad is again at a critical juncture, with the situation in South Sudan having an impact on the fragile relations between Chadians, Northerners and Southerners. Furthermore, the country is preparing for presidential and parliamentary elections, which should take place within the first semester of 2011. The preparatory work is of poor quality and nobody seems to link that with the potential for troubles down the line. On top of everything, one cannot forget that the democratisation process is still an infant.

The donors are not properly represented in N'Djaména and the dialogue between them and the government is not productive. There has been no real dialogue with Brussels either.

France, the key Western partner, has been without a proper ambassador for several months. The outgoing envoy said good bye at the beginning of summer and then, after a short while in Paris, came back, in a very strange diplomatic situation. He is around but as a weakened player.

The EC has been represented by someone who has little sense of diplomacy and a very unique way of looking at strategy. He was supposed to leave long back, but has delayed his departure. He is not happy with the parking lot that waits for him in Brussels. And the new lady keeps waiting somewhere in the clouds of EU bureaucracy.

The US had a good ambassador in N'Djaména. But he has been sick since the beginning of the year. The new ambassador has only recently been confirmed. The interim chargé d'affaires did a good job, but it is not the same as being the susbtantive head of mission.

And that's very much it, on the side of Western missions in Chad.

The question is then obvious: Are we sure we have our African priorities right?

Empty offices and good food

In the European quarters of Brussels, this is the quietest week of the year. The Eurocrats, the MEPs, the media pack, the lobby crowd, all have left their offices and the city.

On the NATO side, the war is also closed. I trust they have sent a note of information to the enemy.

Those who remain behind, the few people around the European offices, are very focused. Where to find a fine traiteur that sells good lobster, some would ask, whilst the rest are just getting ready for an expensive evening out on Friday.

The Berlaymont ghost

These days, there is a ghost walking the corridors of the Berlaymont building. People talk about him, give him a name, put a French accent in his voice, as they also put words and comments on his mouth, compare him with the present tenant, and feed the malaise.

The current tenant is the one that fears most this strange ghost. He gets very annoyed when he hears his name, and mad when people draw comparisons. He then asks his advisors to talk to the friendly media hacks. The point is to get a favourable press, to show that the ghost is from another time and circumstances. And that, in any case, when he was real, a few decades ago, he was no better then today's man.

EU money matters

The mainstream media has largely ignored the EU budget discussions. There have been some brief references to the difference of views between the European Parliament and the member states, concerning the rate of growth of 2011 expenditures, as well as a few pieces about the British initiative to cap future allocations. But no detailed comment about the contents of the budget. Notwithstanding the fact that some funding decisions would be politically difficult to justify, if the public scrutiny was properly done.

What explains the media silence?

Shut up, the big boys are cutting the EU budget!

The UK Prime Minister has drafted a letter to state his government's position regarding the EU budgets for the next years. Basically, David Cameron would see the budgetary appropriations that finance the functioning of the European institutions and the solidarity funds being capped at the level of the 2013 budget. Even the inflation figures would not be fully taken into account.

The PM has convinced France and Germany to support his demarche.

One understands budgets are being cut all over Europe, in each member state. Therefore, there is no political excuse to let the EU allocations, in the years to come, to follow a different course. That's the bright side of this initiative. The darker side is that the cuts will take place, if the will of these three governments prevails in Brussels, in the wrong accounts. The Common Agricultural Policy, for instance, which is an archaic compensatory system that benefits above all the French, German and British owners of very large farms,will remain untouched. No reduction, there. On the other side of this story, the cohesion funds, that are supposed to bring poorer European regions closer to the Union's wealth average, will see significant cuts.

Tant pis, as President Sarkozy would say. Only the weaker states need such cohesion mechanisms. Their voice can somehow be ignored.

The euro's value

The principle of a permanent stabilisation mechanism has been approved. The goal, as presented by the European leaders, is to save the euro as a currency. But was the euro under serious threat? Is it the euro as a currency that has been under attack, or something else? Or is it just the market playing with a currency that is overvalued?

Obviously overvalued, particularly if one takes into account the economic situation of some EU countries.

Wouldn't it be better for everyone, including for strong outlooking economies such as Germany, to have a currency that is closer to the value of the dollar?

The wise come at nightfall

Approved at the on-going Council of the Eurpean Union, by the heads of State and government:

"The Member States whose currency is the euro may establish a
stability mechanism to be activated if indispensable to safeguard
the stability of the euro area as a whole. The granting of any
required financial assistance under the mechanism will be made
subject to strict conditionality".

It is full of conditionalities, obviously, but it is an important step ahead in terms of calming the euro markets.

It also shows, it is clear, that the future of the euro was under serious threat. The collapsing might have been closer than what we had thought.

The Brussels big and expensive underground parking

The European institutions have become a parking lot for second hand national politicians. All of them have lost speed in the home country. But some are vintage items that are hard to dispose of. It is good, from time to time, to see their pictures and let them run for a few miles. Others, are just waiting to be sent to the trash machine.