To know when it is time to exit

It would be unfair to ignore Pope Benedict XVI on the day that marks the end of his papacy. From a leadership point of view, Benedict XVI will remain as unforgettable example. For me, the ultimate test of good leadership is the exit one: a first-class leader knows when time to exit is. 

Riding on the Italian elections

Some opinion makers here in Brussels and in some other European capitals are taking advantage of the Italian election results to openly express their dislike for the German political elite. It is amazing to see important people coming out of hiding and placing the blame on the Germans for the anti-EU feelings some voters are expressing left and right. 

Today I got a mail from the Executive Director of a leading Think Tank that keeps its doors open because of generous funding received from the European Commission. The man was calling my attention to an interview that a French TV had broadcast early in the morning. In his opinion, the interviewee – a prominent Parisian  economist – had been able to explain that all this popular opposition to the EU had gained strength because the German government had imposed austerity all over the place in Europe.

I watched the interview and was not convinced. Then I read a few media pieces here and there attacking austerity. It is now very fashionable as a theme. I looked for alternative suggestions but found no credible answer to the question. The only avenue that made some sense was about a different policy approach to public financing by the European Central Bank (ECB). The Bank should be more forthcoming with resources. But then one key question remained unanswered: how to get the necessary consensus among the member states about the ECB change of policy?  

Italy's dramatic move towards the future

In view of the election results, many analysts of the Italian political scene think that Beppe Grillo is the true winner and the king maker. I beg to differ. This is an election without winners. To let Grillo play the role of king maker would be a strategic mistake. His support – tacit or explicit – to a centre-left led government would be terribly unstable. Sooner or later such a government would collapse. Then, new elections would have to be called. And these elections would bring Berlusconi back to power. Let’s have no doubt about such a scenario.

I trust Bersani, the leader of the centre-left party PD, understands this.

That’s why I would agree with those who say that the country looks “ungovernable” at this stage. But a political impasse is no solution either. In my opinion, and I say this with trepidation, the centre-left has to reach out to Berlusconi party and try to form a grand coalition. It might not last very long. But it is the only way to compromise both sides in a process that will certainly be painful. Italy’s future – not to mention the chaotic state of the country at this juncture – requires such a dramatic approach.

Clowns and Mafiosi

At this hour, the results of the Italian general elections are not yet clear. But what is obvious is that a large segment of the country’s population leaves in a strange planet. Those who voted for two men that are far from being serious – Berlusconi and Grillo – have not yet realised that Italy needs a deep transformation and modernisation. Populism and cronyism of the Silvio’s fashion are just the continuation of the road towards bankruptcy, more corruption and chaos. Grillo’s anti-establishment platform will, in the end, lead to almost the same results: bankruptcy, chaos, street politics and political instability. 

Italy is an example of what can happen to a major economy when the rule of law is replaced by the rule of political favouritism and the rule of the mafia groups. Let the situation go on for decades without being tackled and see what you get: clowns and Mafiosi being voted into office. 

One single Europe...

In 2012 European car sales in South Korea have increased significantly, as a result of the Free Trade Agreement signed the year before.  Volkswagen’s sales recorded 48% growth. Audi’s figure, plus 46%. BMW’s growth was 21% and Mercedes –Benz, just over 4%.

Curiously all these makes come from one single country within the EU…

What about the French, Italian, Swedish and other car makes? 

South Korea in the EU

Yesterday I could notice how strong the group that represents South Korea’s interests is in Brussels. They are very well connected with the European External Action Service and with the Universities of Brussels and Leuven as well as with other think tanks. It is true that South Korea is considered a strategic partner of the EU. It is also true that Europe is a bit confused sometimes and calls a number of countries “strategic partners”, which makes the concept weak. EU cannot have a strategic partner in every street of the world, it makes no sense. Strategic for what?

Trade is a major area of focus for the partnership between the EU and Korea. A Free Trade Agreement has been under implementation since July 2011. That has seriously boosted the exchanges between the two sides. But, as expected, on the European side it has been Germany the main winner of the new opportunities.

On the political front, South Korea would certainly like to see the EU playing a more vigorous role towards North Korea. The fact of the matter, however, is that Pyongyang is far away from Brussels’ limited outreach in East Asia. EU is no real power player in that part of the world. 

Afghan women and human rights

Afghan woman leaders are very worried about the country’s situation post-2014. They have very little or no information about the on-going secret dialogue that is gradually taking place between the Karzai people and the Taleban leaders and they fear that the priority that is given to peace at any cost will have a very heavy cost as far as women’s rights are concerned. They believe that there is a trade-off on the table that will buy the Taleban in and will place the women out…

The women are also very surprised that the big partners of Afghanistan seem more interested in “sustaining” peace – a way of showing that the many years of military intervention have achieved durable results and that the operational assistance was therefore worth the sacrifice and the money – than on protecting the human rights gains.

These are very legitimate concerns. They are even more justified when one looks at President Karzai’s increasing silence about women's issues. 

Good governance in Afghanistan

I spent part of the afternoon in a public discussion about the future of Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, the international military deployment. End 2014 is around the corner and security remains a major challenge. But some of the Afghan participants told us that more important than the security transition – the transfer of responsibilities from the NATO-led force to the national army – is the political transition that is scheduled for next year. In about 14 months there will be presidential elections and a new leader will take over from President Hamid Karzai. The credibility of those elections is still a matter to be addressed. And, more importantly, as the NATO representative in the discussion said: “we need a good, honest government in Kabul”.

Well, this is indeed a big challenge.

Men and diamonds

Eight men have shown, last night, that diamonds are not just girls’ best friends. These men love them too. They dressed for the occasion, with clothes roughly cut as police uniforms, and rather inelegantly cut through the chicken wire that surrounds part of the Brussels airport perimeter and drove in two cars to the footsteps of a commercial airliner bound to fly to Zurich. This was a scheduled flight, ready to take passengers and also a few boxes containing many shining stones.

The fellows took the stones and left the area through the same hole in the wire. The catch’s worth is estimated at 50 million dollars. Not bad for a five-minute job. 

All that happened at 20:00 hours, not in the middle of the night. At the international airport of Europe’s capital.

Fortunately, they did it for the beauty of the stones. Imagine they were a terrorist group intended at attacking the airliner and a couple of VIP passengers…

One should feel very concerned.

 As for the airport authorities, they should also feel very embarrassed. 

To be frank, they do not seem to be getting the message. Or at least, they pretend to ignore its gravity. They tell us there are three types of police forces at the airport, so we should consider ourselves safe. But that is exactly the point. When we have different forces in charge of bits of the security of a key facility there is also a serious risk of poor or no coordination among them. In addition, there is too much concern about passenger control and too little about perimeter security. Lack of resources cannot be an acceptable explanation. It is just that the emphasis is too much on checking if I carry any soft cheese – I love Camembert – and not enough on men crazy for diamonds. 

Paris and the young Japanese

I spent many hours walking the avenues and also the little streets of Paris. It was a sunny day, a beautiful day after so many awful days of grey. Paris is always a delight particularly when the weather is fine. It is a city that was conceived by people with great sense of ambition and personal glory and that transmitted that to the many palaces, monuments, squares and gardens that make the place an architectural wonder.

Just a first impression after a very long day: one sees plenty of young tourists from Japan in Paris. As I walked the avenues I was asking myself if visiting Paris is a rite of passage for the young men and ladies of today’s Japan. And then I thought, maybe this will make the youth of that far away land a bit more romantic and more interested in love…I am told they desperately need to boost the romanticism in the Japanese society…

To be prepared for the right questions

Yesterday’s question – the key question a leader should prioritise and try to respond to – raised a number of reactions among the blog’s readers. That was, actually, the whole point of the question: to get people to think about the possible answers to it. Because quite often we tend to forget the important questions and give answers to matters that are not particularly relevant.

The many leaders I met – the true ones – where people that new how to ask questions. They would look at you and raise a point for you to respond to. And many times I felt embarrassed because I had not thought deeply – or at all! – about it and had no good answer to provide. I would then feel dwarfed by my interlocutor. And that is a feeling you cannot allow people to get you to experience if you have aspirations and want to been perceived as a match.

An incomplete question

Is it a good time, on a Saturday evening, to remind all of us that the key question a leader should ask himself/herself is ….?

Today's word in Spain

There is one word in today’s Spain that has plenty of currency among the ordinary people. It is a word that expresses the disgust and displeasure of almost everyone with present-day politics and the politicians. It is also an indication that the crisis in Spain is much deeper than the economy, the banking situation and the skyrocketed rate of unemployment. No need to guess. The word is … corruption!

Complexities and the deficit of confidence

  The dynamics of geopolitics and key international events are moving faster than our capacity to forecast, grasp their meaning or measure the intensity of their impact. We live at present in a world that is in constant flux and too complex.

Above all, there is a major inadequacy between the global nature of many challenges and the mechanisms to respond to them. That’s why the reform of the UN System is more urgent than ever.

But there is also a very serious crisis of confidence in the leaders and in the institutions. And that makes some places even more dangerous. 

Obama's great speech

President Obama’s speech on the State of the Union is inspired by a progressive outlook and modernity. It is highly advisable to read it carefully. It is a great lesson on politics and public speech. The style is direct and conversational. It has a strong human touch, with several references to real people. And above all, it proposes a number of directions and this is the trademark of a leader: to set the ambition!

Its references to clean cars that will move on alternative fuels, not on oil, to women’s rights and full empowerment, to the need to stop the violence against women,  and also the observations about development co-operation are remarkable paragraphs in a statement that is full of extraordinary reflections.  

Leadership, play, mysticism...and keep smiling!

As I perused my old personal notes about leadership, I came across one written almost fifteen years ago that says that there is bit of “ theatre” – representation – included in the practice of leadership. And just after that line, the following reads that there also a touch of mysticism in a leader. 

I would add that a good leader has also a good sense of humour.

Then I looked at some of the men that are in charge of Europe today – Angela Merkel is a different ball game – and couldn't find the actor ( with the exception of Berlusconi, of course, but he has no mysticism, all in him is fake and paid for, you can ask Ruby) and also couldn't think of anyone who inspires people.

An example is poor François. He is not comfortable in his role, as if he were the wrong cast for the job of President, and he can’t fire the flame that the European left had hoped he would. But at least, he seems sincere.

Can we say the same about many others?

The Pope, Syria and Berlusconi

My editor had to rearrange this week’s magazine, which was about to be finalised and sent to the printers, after the announcement by Pope Benedict XVI of his resignation. In the magazine as in all media outfits the news arrived as a major earthquake. It has shaken all the other items. Space being a rare commodity in all types of media, particularly in the magazine type, the Pope’s decision has chased out many other pieces of information and editorial comments on other matters. From what I know, it is the Syrian crisis and the Italian elections articles that paid the highest price. They moved out of the pages and focus, or were given just a token space. The Pope took precedence. The matters of God won over the tragedy of people in Syria and the comedy of Berlusconi in Italy. 

Peacekeeping experience in the Sahel

Now that there is a proposal on the table of the UN Security Council to approve a DPKO-type follow-on force to take over from the French in Mali, my suggestion would be very clear: please have a look at the MINURCAT experience. MINURCAT, the peacekeeping mission in Chad and Central African Republic (2008-2010), took over in 2009 from a European force, led by the French in circumstances that were not too different from the current Malian one. There was a successful transition between the French/European forces and the UN military and civilian contingent, but there were also a number of lessons that have been learned and should be taken into account.

It is true that the international community tends to have a short memory. But 2009 is not that far back. And the sands of Northern Chad are comparable to the ones in Mali.

Furthermore, with a strong Chadian contingent being deployed to Mali, there is one more reason to look at the way the UN mission (MINURCAT) interacted with the Chadian army. As I have already mentioned in a previous post, of all the African troops being sent to Mali, the Chadians are probably the most combative and effective.

  

Cameron, the European...

Still on yesterday’s meeting of the EU Council, and on the budget for 2014-2020, the big winner is David Cameron. He managed to get Angela Merkel, the Dutch and the Scandinavian leaders on his side. Cameron is the man to watch as far as the future of Europe is concerned.

Another winner, I should emphasise it because people tend to forget his role, is Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council. He led the process with great ability and managed to obtain a consensus without any public recrimination from any of the heads of state or government. Even François Hollande, the most visible face of the losers, kept quiet. 

EU Budget: too long a period at a time of uncertainties

I should write about the EU budget 2014-2020, as approved today by the EU Council. And add that even if the total amount matters, what matters more is how money is allocated. How much money goes for the big issues that have a strategic impact over the future of Europe? That’s the key question.

And what are those issues?

First, those related to the economic disparities between different corners of the European space. How can we unite the Continent when some countries and regions are kept far behind in terms of development and the gap keeps increasing?

Second, investments in science and technological research. The future of Europe has to be built on a knowledge economy, not on steel and textiles. Unless, of course, if the textiles are at the sharp end of the creative industries, both in terms of design and advanced materials…

Third, funds and programmes for youth employment promotion, youth education for the jobs of the future, preparing a youth with a European mind-set and a global outlook.  

Fourth, internal security, including cyber-security, and security co-operation with the neighbours of the EU.

Fifth, a common external policy, including an effective development aid agenda and enough resources for humanitarian relief and response.

These are the budget lines we need to look at, as a matter of priority.

Having said that, I am also very concerned about a process that approves financial resources for a long period of time – seven years – when we live in a world that is changing rapidly. It is good to have a long term vision but it is better to have a system that is flexible and can be adjusted to respond to new challenges as they develop. I do not think the EU budgetary process is tailored for that. 

On people and power

The world's political environment has changed rapidly since the beginning of this century. This is in many ways related to the massive access to information and the widespread usage of low cost, accessible means of communication. The democratisation of information enhanced the citizen's awareness, self-esteem, sense of force, public participation and leverage.  Everybody is connected, has an opinion and is not afraid of voicing it, if necessary. Fast, power seems to be a click away from each individual. It has become accessible. This means, for many, a new approach towards power as people got convinced that politics is an easy job, accessible, and that they could as well as be the prime minister of their own country or the secretary-general of the UN. The symbolism and distance of power have been lost and the street turns out to be the new seat of authority.

The fact of the matter is that political leaders can no longer ignore public opinion. Even to pretend to be listening is no longer enough. If you are in charge, you better be on guard and listen!

This change has also influenced the way international affairs are conducted. Here, as in national politics, we notice the emergence of a different approach with the individual – men and women – at the centre of the global concerns. Let's take as an example the area of security, as this is a field where the concepts of sovereignty and national security, which are vague and distant for each person, have always dominated. As we moved deeper into the new century, the emphasis on human security, which is about protecting each one of us from all kinds of threats, gained ground and became an important component of the international debate.

In different words, the individual is now the main feature of the new political paradigm, both on the domestic and the international front: the citizen matters more than ever. Policy is defined taking each one of us in mind. At least, it should be, if one wants to remain in power. 

The first decade of the 21st century ended up by being deeply traumatised by the 9/11 events resulting in key western countries becoming heavily engaged in military campaigns in faraway lands, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. In my opinion, these are the last large scale interventions of the West, the final manifestations of a world that is no longer sustainable and acceptable, as sovereign debt, defence cuts and new international power relations make it clear. 

The 2000s was also a period when the different regions of the world gained greater political awareness of their own characteristics and sought to take charge of their own agenda. The launching of NEPAD, in 2001, is an illustration of such trend: Africa decided to change the way it related with the outside world. From then on, the objective became to take care of its own problems and be able to set its specific path towards the future. 

This is also a time of power shifts leading to the consolidation of new centres of influence. The old world’s authority is being challenged by the emerging powers.

As the French philosopher Michel Foucault used to say, power is not a fixed commodity, but a dynamic relationship that constantly changes. It is changing fast today.

Long weekends at the EU institutions

The EU staff in Brussels did not like my post of yesterday. I advised them to read it again. It is more favourable to them than many other statements we kept hearing throughout the day. Yes, they had again a lot of bad press today, in many corners of Europe.

And I also gave them another piece of advice, gently: please be in the office as scheduled, show you respect the working hours.

The point is that the EU bureaucrats have to move away from the habit of very long weekends. It is quite common to see most of the offices empty by Friday 11:00 am. And if one goes there and walks the buildings on a Monday morning, one notes that many staff are still out. They might be about to arrive at Brussels airport by late morning.

Actually, one gets the impression that there is little work discipline in many of the EU institutions. And the performance measurement mechanisms seem to be lacking. The bosses do not appear to be in charge.

Isn’t it time to start looking at these matters?

Having said that, there are people that work pretty hard. Not everyone is a “professional weekender”. 

EU staff on strike

EU civil servants were on strike today over salary matters. As the EU Council prepares to discuss the budget framework for 2014-2020, Germany and a couple of other countries have expressed the view that the European bureaucrats are dearly paid. They consider that their salary and compensation packages are excessive. Therefore, in line with the austerity that is being implemented in many states, the EU functionaries should accept some cuts to their pay.   

Nobody likes to see his or her salary chopped. But it is also true that many middle ranking EU staff are much better paid than the cabinet ministers in their home countries. But that is the rule of the international game. Salaries are always compared with the best in the sector, not with payments made in low income countries.

However, that is not a justification for a strike by privileged people. They should express their dissatisfaction at their desks and through other means without calling for a strike.

In my 32 years at the UN we had several situations of discontentment with the level of the pay slip. Particularly in New York, where the cost of living is extremely high and the UN salaries barely cover the reasonable needs of a family. But I do not remember we ever engaged on a strike.   

Mali is not Afghanistan

Containing the Islamist threat as Gaddafi’s ghost casts shadow in the Sahel

By Victor Angelo and Marc de Bernis

France finds itself relatively isolated in its intervention in Mali. While its European partners and the U.S. government have expressed support to the French operation aimed at preventing armed Islamic groups from seizing power, this has not translated into concrete co-operation, except for token logistical assistance.

One reason for the reluctance of France's western allies to engage on the ground is the fear that Mali could become an inextricable quagmire comparable to Afghanistan. This perception is wrong. Superficial comparisons lead to procrastination which could result in the escalation of a threat that could have been contained. 

Mali, like Afghanistan, is a developing country whose population is mainly Muslim. The similarity stops here. From a military and operational point of view, the Mali context is much less favourable to jihadists than Afghanistan. The various Islamists groups involved in northern Mali include no more than a few thousand fighters – with estimates of less than 3,000 – who operate within a vast but sparsely populated territory, home to less than two million people. In this desert and flat area – except for a mountainous zone in the north-west, the Adrar des Ifoghas – it is very difficult to hide, including within the local population, thus movements are easily spotted. Jihadist enclaves can be easily identified through intelligence which renders them  extremely vulnerable to air strikes. More importantly, there is no Pakistan equivalent that lies adjacent to Mali to offer safe haven to militants. The Taliban would never have been able to establish their power over Afghanistan and to resist NATO forces without the refuge offered to them next door, in Pakistan. Jihadists in Mali have no access to an external sanctuary or base to train their fighters. Certainly not in Algeria, Niger or Mauritania. Not even in the more fractured Libya.

From a cultural and religious standpoint, the region is dominated by the Tuaregs who co-exist with a mix of other ethnic groups, including Maures, Songhai and Peuls. The Muslim population follows a moderate and peaceful interpretation of Islam, in harmony with the ancestral traditions of Africa. Religious practice is not a primary characteristic of the Tuareg lifestyle. Even if a tiny fraction may be lured into a more extremist form of Islam, as advocated by Salafist groups, with impressionable young men falling prey to the proselytism of jihadist recruiters, it is unlikely that the cultural landscape would allow for the development of a strong extremist movement comparable to that of the Taliban. Recent events have shown the Malian population to unanimously reject the Sharia law as imposed by the Islamist groups in areas under their control.

In economic and political terms, Mali is fragile but not a failed state. Despite of its limited resources, the country, which is among the world’s poorest, has managed to democratise. The real problem lies in the lack of good governance which has led northern Mali to become a smuggling corridor between Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe for all forms of trafficking – in drugs, arms, tobacco, and people. However, the country’s economy is not dependant on illegal commodities, contrary to the case of Afghanistan, which is plagued by the narcotics trade.

The crisis in Mali is related to the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. Many Tuareg men had been employed by Gaddafi as militias. Having lost their jobs, these fighters had returned to the Sahel, particularly to northern Mali, to establish an alliance with various Islamic movements inspired by Al Qaeda. The recent break-up of this coalition demonstrates the incompatibility between the Tuareg National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), which is deeply rooted in the region’s history, and Islamist terrorists. The latter have no legitimacy within the population and no means to control the territory on a sustainable basis, both economically and militarily. As such they can be eliminated through concerted and determined international action in co-operation with the states of the region, including Algeria. At the same time, long term solutions require a renewed dialogue between the Tuareg MNLA and the different Sahelian governments. This should start now, as military operations progress. Meanwhile, the international community should review the delivery of development assistance to the Sahel to achieve a more targeted approach to state capacity-building and poverty alleviation. Particular attention should be given to the urban youth, as their engagement is key to curb militancy and violent uprising.

(721 words)

Victor Angelo was a former UN Under-Secretary-General and the UNSG’s Special Representative for the Central African Republic and Chad.

Marc de Bernis was a former UN Development Programme’s Resident Representative in Algeria and Niger.

Politics is a very strange game

Berlusconi promised today to return 4 billion Euros of property taxes money to the Italian families, if he gets to power after the general elections that take place at the end of this month.  

This man is a consummate populist. This announcement is another demonstration of his immense capacity to offer fantasies and thin air as the solutions to the vast problems Italy is facing. You and I would think that the voters would see how implausible such a promise is. Be aware! The opinion polls are showing that Berlusconi’s party is getting stronger and stronger. Many citizens love to be deceived!

Politics of hope or fear

If you are in politics and public affairs, do not forget to read Cicero’s speeches from time to time. They are a major source of wisdom and oratory. Cicero lived long ago, from 106 to 43 BC, in the Ancient Rome, but his observations about the powerful and human nature remain current.

Today, I looked again at the following observation he made in his work “Oratory”:

“Men are influenced in their verdicts much more by prejudice…or anger…or by some excitement of their feelings, than either by the facts of the case…or by any rules or principles…”

My comment: That’s why objectivity in politics carries very little water!

My conclusion: Better to create hope, then!

Destabilising West Africa

The French President will visit Mali tomorrow. I have no idea of the messages he intends to put across. But there is one I would like to suggest. It concerns the funding of the African peacekeeping forces that are now deploying into the country. At this week’s donor conference $450 million have been pledged against a budget that is estimated at $1 billion. The gap is too big and needs to be filled. F. Hollande should emphasise that he wants to have an effective African deployment in Mali. He should call on donor countries to take the funding as a matter of their own national interest.

But there is more to this matter. If the African forces are not fully compensated that will spell big crises in their countries of origin, once they are back from the front. I have seen that in the 90s and during the last decade in West Africa. And I am afraid the same might happen again now. Soldiers that have become battle hardened and do not receive the allowances they have been promised are a major source of trouble and instability in most of West Africa. They become convinced that their generals and the politicians have kept the money given by the donors – they do not believe in funding gaps or in pledges that did not materialise – and they seek retribution.

I see this financial shortcoming as a major cause for further destabilisation in the region. It needs to be addressed.