EU recovery winds

In the EU, this month of July ends with a more optimistic note. At least, that’s what some analysts would like us to believe. They are now saying they see some signs that the worst of the economic crisis is past. That we might return to positive growth rates during the second half of the year.

If we look at the recovery in Ireland, we might come to the same conclusion. I am certainly very encouraged by the level of international investment the country is able to attract, which is a clear indicator that confidence is back and the overall macro-economic framework is getting the right shape. 

But one swallow doesn't make a summer. 

We can even forget Greece and its chronic development challenges. We cannot however be blind to the economic situations in Italy and Spain. These countries are not out of the woods. And they combine economic depression with political fragility. This is the worst combination we can have as one of the keys that opens the door of recovery is a strong government with a clear popular mandate and indisputable political legitimacy.

Repeating ourselves about Zimbabwe

Today I have to go back to the Zimbabwe issue.

After serving in the country for four years, I left Harare at the end of 2004. Now, almost nine years later, and on the eve of the presidential elections, I listen to the political discourse and see that the themes and the worries are exactly the same. 

But not only on the Mugabe and Tsvangirai camps.

SADC, the association of Southern African States, the EU and others in the international community keep saying today what they were already telling us nine or more years ago: this time, we need proper elections, this time we will not accept fraud, this time it has to be different.

And we can only respond what we have said many times in the past: poor Zimbabwe!

Elections Zimbabwean style

On 31 July Zimbabweans will be offered a new chance of being robbed. Indeed, on that day presidential elections will take place. And the Electoral Commission, appointed by good old Robert and loyal to the regime interests, will do again what they have done in 2002, 2005 and 2008: make sure that the Mugabe camp steals the elections. The Electoral Commissioners are very expert at that job. I have observed and also implemented many elections in Africa and elsewhere. I have never seen an institutional machinery so smart as the one in Zimbabwe that can organise chaos, put in place rules and legal obstacles, and create all conditions for the old man to be “elected” in a way that looks good enough.

I would love to be wrong this time. 

Summer time

As we come closer to early August, leaders in my part of the world are more concerned by the summer break than by anything else. Brussels is empty at this time of the year and the same happens in other EU capitals. Even at the UN in New York, it is time for slow motion. I remember well trying to sort out things in August and getting only third and fourth line staffs on the other side of the UN headquarters table.

But do crises take a break? 

The Security Council has to look at the Egyptian crisis soonest

I wrote yesterday’s post hours before the new dramatic developments in Egypt. At the end of my writing, I said “everything else is too tragic to contemplate”.

Today, we have to contemplate it. Many people – the exact figure remains unclear – were shot at when demonstrating in the streets of Cairo. The bullets came from the armed forces and the police side. In some cases, there was a deliberate intention to kill. Sniper fire is about “executing” people. And snipers are very extensively trained sharpshooters that can only be found, in a country like Egypt, within the official security apparatus.

It is time for the international community to come in and offer the bridges and platforms for dialogue that the Egyptians themselves might not be able to construct. Indeed, the Egyptian society seems too divided to be able to sit together on their own and agree together on a way out of the deep crisis and on their future. Key members of Security Council should step in now. The pressure for them to take up their international responsibility should come from all quarters. Without that pressure from the international public opinion, those countries will not act. They will continue to pretend that they are very busy elsewhere and that Egypt is mature enough to solve her own problems.

This is the time to act. 

Egypt needs courageous leadership

Egypt’s domestic situation is very volatile. People have, however, been able to keep the instability within peaceful parameters. In a country that is deeply divided, people have shown a great degree of political maturity. The point is to see leaders emerging, from both sides of the divide. Leaders that can be accepted as credible and perceived as strong enough to move the situation forward, to political dialogue. That’s the only option that can be accepted. And that is the kind of focus that the interventions coming from outside the country should have.

Everything else is too tragic to contemplate. 

Indifference is gaining ground in international affairs

Disguised indifference: this seems to be the prevailing attitude behind the international standing of big nations, the policy line they currently tend to follow. 

Europeans

The latest Eurobarometer survey results published yesterday show that the European citizens value above all the free movement of people, goods and services within the EU and the fact that peace has been kept in the Continent. 62% of those living in the Eurozone also believe that the common currency is a positive development. However, a large number (67%) think that their voice is not heard and counts for little when it comes to influencing European politics.

It is also curious to note that the rich Luxembourg feel very “European” (88% of people in the Grand Duchy say so) and the poor Greek have a very different opinion (only 44% feel as Europeans).  They are at the end of table. 

The baby and the UK economy

Looking at the TV pictures on the Royal Baby, and seeing the crowds and the fever in the national media, I can only say to myself that the British will never stop amazing me.  Then, I look at the Financial Times and find there a very serious assessment of the baby’s impact on the economy. Great Britain, indeed!

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

Political clarity in Portugal

Portugal goes to bed tonight with a clear mind: the President has decided that the current Prime Minister and his coalition government will remain in power and will have a chance to complete their mandate.

My hope is that the PM and the leader of the junior party in the coalition have learned one or two governance lessons and become more responsive to political dialogue with others, including the key opposition party – the Socialists – and business and labour leaders. 

Lisbon stroll

I spent the morning walking in downtown Lisbon. And I enjoyed it. 

The city centre has benefit from some serious renovation and at this time of the year is full of light, colour and tourists. Many young tourists, from many corners of Europe, can be seen in the public places, little terrace cafés and other shops that make the heart of the Portuguese capital. 

As we stroll around, we feel safe, which is a key concern when you are visiting a big city and a foreign place.  And if you are just a visitor, you do not notice the crisis the country has been experiencing. Life looks normal. 

Well, that’s good news.

Kerry's efforts

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has spent most of his time, during the last two weeks or so, trying to resuscitate the “final status negotiations” –that’s the official expression to name the talks between Israel and Palestine on border issues, security arrangements, and the fate of the Palestinian refugees.

Today it seems that his efforts are bearing fruit. We might see both countries back at the negotiating table, after five years of interruption and stalemate, next week. This is great news. I think it is important to recognize Kerry’s efforts.

And encourage him – and above all, President Obama – to continue along the same line, notwithstanding every bit of resistance Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to raise. At the end of the day, the key to very complex situation that defines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as much in Washington as it is in the region. 

Mandela is an inspiration

Mandela Day: very well celebrated in many parts of the world. One should feel great for that. And one should also feel good and proud because Mandela has shown that an African can be a global example for peace, justice and freedom.  He has also reminded us that there are politicians that mean well and are truly concerned with the betterment of their people. 

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world. 

What is Qatar up to?

I am confronted quite often with questions about Qatar’s role in the Middle East and North Africa. A lot of well-informed observers have serious difficulties to understand the Emirate’s strategic objectives and its political moves. Besides the role played by Qatar’s stated-funded global TV channel Al-Jazeera, which by the way, I watch with interest, people ask questions about many other things, including Doha’s extraordinary financial support provided to former President Morsi of Egypt.

No doubt, one has to have a deeper look at Qatar geo-strategic ambitions. 

Syria is getting back into the headline news again

The Syrian crisis has been pushed out of the TV screens by the situation in Egypt. And a lot of people in the West are feeling good about this. After deciding that they would deliver weapons to the rebels, many in Washington, London and elsewhere felt very uneasy about this move. The fact that Syria has been forgotten by the media during the last many weeks has given those politicians some respite.  But the tragedy is still there, the Geneva conference seems to be dead in the water and the issue is about to return to the top of the international agenda. What will be the Western response then? 

Alentejo, a Province in Southern Portugal

As I drove over the vast expanses of land that make Alentejo, the Southern Province of Portugal, I thought that all those, all over the world, that are interested in investing in commercial agriculture, food production, biofuels, exotic fruits, should consider visiting the region. There is so much farming land available there, just waiting for capital investment and technology. And the weather, on top of it, is not bad at all. 

Electoral assistance

It is not known by many, but one of the things the UN does very well is electoral assistance. Within the Secretariat there is a special unit, called Electoral Assistance Division (EAD). They have provided some of the best expertise available regarding elections, from Iraq to East Timor and Afghanistan, from Nigeria to Sierra Leone and Congo, and so on, and sometimes in very difficult national contexts. 

Portuguese challenges

The key Portuguese parties have been requested by the President to look for a broad political accord in order to guarantee enough stability during the last year of implementation of the current agreement with the international creditors.

This call is a surprise move by President Cavaco Silva. It reflects in many ways the huge economic and social challenges the country has to confront in the near future. It also reflects a very serious polarisation of the domestic political situation, not just between the government and the opposition, but also within the coalition parties themselves.  

It is a critical moment for the Portuguese. But in general, people have shown a tremendous amount of wisdom and have tried to navigate these difficult times. It is however very easy to give up hope and fall into sectarian partisan approaches. The President’s initiative should allow the political leaders to show that they place the national interest above personality clashes and power games. It is however a very complex call, very difficult to be successful. It can only be achieved if leading party people have the stature of statesmen. That’s, at the end of the day, what is on the table today in Portugal: an invitation to grow beyond one’s own limitations and to show commitment to a larger goal. 

The art of compromise

At 13:45 hours the European Commission made public their proposal regarding the establishment of a mechanism that would have the authority to deal with banking crisis. The proposed institution would oversee each one of the 6,000 banks –that many, indeed, I agree there are too many banks in Europe –that operate in the Eurozone.

A bit over an hour later, around 15:00 hours, Germany said no to the proposal.

In both cases, the positions were extreme, like two enemies in a war. It's a pity, at a time when the banking union should be moving faster. 

The art of balance, common sense and compromise is being lost in today’s Europe. 

Hollande low cost

The French President, François Hollande, has now an approval rating of 19%. This is by far the lowest rate ever. It is even worse than it looks if one takes into account that he is quite new in the job and therefore cannot pretend people are tired of him. People are just disappointed. They had expected a new style of governance, combining sensitivity and reform, and got indecision instead. In times of crisis, vacillation is the worst characteristic a leader can harbour. The voters want clarity, a well-defined sense of direction, resoluteness, and ability to communicate and mobilise. You might not be 100% sure of the best way to sort out the crisis, but you have to be perceived as being fully in control.

If not, you get 19% today and 10% tomorrow. Political devaluation goes as fast as currency devaluation in a crisis country. 

Spying on me is good for my ego

With all this spying that is going on, all over, one should feel important, because so many services are interested in what one is doing and saying.  

Egypt should not repeat the Algerian crisis

Egypt’s situation is in serious risk of paralysing the little that is still working in the country. And it is also moving fast towards a dead end. It is time to realise that a repetition of the Algeria’s crisis of the early nineties is now becoming a real possibility. One should remember the very high costs that Algerian crisis brought in, during so many years, both in terms of human suffering and underdevelopment.  The Egyptian leadership has to be able to rise to the very dramatic challenge that the country faces, be able to talk sense to the nation and propose a way forward that is as inclusive as possible.

If that is not the case, Egypt will move closer to violent unrest. 

Seville

Week end in Seville, Spain. Lots of young people from different corners of Northern Europe and from Japan and China. The city might have fewer tourists this year but is still a major international attraction. And it’s worth the visit. Ever. 

Bolivia and the EU

Just after the incident with President Morales ‘ flight, at the beginning of the week, I wrote in my Portuguese blog “Vistas Largas” that the EU countries involved  - France, Portugal, Spain and Austria – had made a serious mistake. They should not have prevented the Bolivian President’s plane from flying over their air space and the Austrian Police should not have searched the aircraft, after it was forced to land in Vienna. If there was any doubt about Edward Snowden’s presence on board the right approach would have been to request for information about the passenger list and take it at face value. This is the appropriate diplomatic procedure. Everything else was a humiliation of a Head of State. It would be immediately perceived as a very wrong decision taking into account the extreme sensitivities that prevail in South America where many believe the Europeans to be just arrogant and racist.

Now, a few days into this story, people are finally recognising the mistake. But they do not want to properly apologise for it. That’s to add injury to insult. 

The Egyptian transition

The initial reaction from the international community to the Egyptian events has been very measured. This is certainly good news. The country needs to be allowed to go through a new transition without too much interference from outside and be given a new chance to redraft a more inclusive constitution and organise proper elections. Peace and internal security are critical at this stage. As it is full respect for the rights of every citizen, big or small. 

Egypt

Egypt is in very deep waters. One can only be very concerned. As a key country in a very complex region, the international community can only discuss, with great serenity, what can be done to assist the Egyptians in this hour of great difficulties. Any ill-measured statement or decision, be it taken in Washington or Brussels, can only make things worse.

Portugal loves political confusion

Yesterday, the Portuguese Finance Minister left the government. That was no big surprise, in the end, as many had expected that decision for quite a bit of time. 

But today we got the real surprise: the Foreign Minister, Paulo Portas, who is also the leader of the junior party in the coalition government, called it quits. The destabilising impact of his decision is enormous. I do not expect the current government to survive such blow. 

Actually, Portas seems to have the same opinion. By quitting now he is getting ready to come back in late September, in alliance with the Socialist Party. So, he is playing for his political continuity. 

The problem is that all this has a very deep impact on Portugal’s access to the international financial markets. Without proper access there will be no money to bridge the public finances gap. That means plenty of hard times ahead. But in party politics that’s not important. What is really critical is for the political leaders to have access to power and everything that comes with it. They are no statesmen. They are, like you and me, just trying to make a nice living out of bad politics and the country’s ruin. 

It’s a matter of choice. 

Portugal's Finance Minister has resigned

The Portuguese Finance Minister, Vítor Gaspar, resigned this afternoon. He had lost the public opinion battle long ago, as he was seen by the voters as the engine of the austerity programme Portugal has been implementing for two years. His name was, in the people’s minds, linked to taxes and economic recession. This was, of course, an unfair connection, as the economic situation of the country is much more complex than just the austerity measures he had to adopt. But politics are like that: you cannot find yourself without a popular power base.

For a long period, his power came from the confidence the Prime Minister had on his abilities to master the intricacies of the financial adjustment programme in addition to fact that Gaspar had a lot of support in Brussels, Berlin, Frankfurt and other EU capitals. But this was a time-bound power base, condemned to die. As the Prime Minister felt more and more isolated, including within his own party, his support to the man everyone identifies with the austerity could only come to an end. It has now happened. And Gaspar, who is an outsider in terms of the national politics, could read the writing on the wall.