An Indian face in Europe´s politics

The Portuguese Socialist Party has a new leader: António Costa, the current mayor of Lisbon. On Sunday he won the party´s nomination by an overwhelming majority of the votes. He was running against the outgoing Secretary-General of the party, António José Seguro, and received the support of more than two-thirds of the voters. The mandate is clear. And the level of hope invested on him as well.

On the father´s side, António Costa has his family roots in Goa, India. His election places him in a very good position to be the next Prime-minister of Portugal, by next year´s autumn. To have a Prime-minister that is of Indian origin shows how much Portugal and Europe´s ethnicity mix has changed and keeps changing. This is the new Europe, built on old nations and new immigrants. This is also a Europe that has to adjust to a more globalised world.

In my opinion it is good news to open up. We Europeans need to have a much broader view of ourselves and of our position in the affairs of the world. It is not just about being more tolerant. It is also about getting a better grasp about the world´s diversity and how to insert ourselves in an international reality that has changed and will continue to change at a very high speed. 

More on leadership

I have spent the last days reflecting about political leadership in the European context. There is a strong feeling, in many quarters, that leadership is currently in short supply. I am not sure. What seems to be missing is wise political leadership combined with courage to say it as it is. A leader cannot be just the echo of popular opinions. We tend to confuse representativeness and democracy with being like everybody else. The representative of the people brings something else to the common views. His or her role is to provide balance to the views expressed by the loudest members of society, to make the synthesis of the majority opinion and at the same time combining it with the protection of the minority opinion. That is about guiding and building confidence. 

Dilma and Marina

The forthcoming presidential elections in Brazil, scheduled for 5 October with a second round taking place on 26^th, if necessary, should be studied with great attention by those who are particularly interested in leadership issues.

 Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent, is in a tight battle against Marina Silva, an opposition candidate that might bring together the social-democrats and the centre-right. Actually, in the current Brazilian spectrum, it is not easy to talk about left and right politics as the main candidates have founded their campaigns on broad alliances that cover a good number of parties and movements. But that´s not my point at present. The point is about the personalities and the way the two leading ladies conduct their election campaigns. They have two different styles, both very remarkable. There is a lot to be learned from them in terms of political leadership in a huge and very diverse country.

DIlma has against her the fact that her party has been in power for 12 years and that many would like to see a change of direction in the way politics are conducted. The events of the last 14 months, with mass demonstrations and many opposing the way public money has been spent on prestige projects, or embezzled by corrupt individuals in positions of power, run against Dilma´s re-election. She has however many positive trump cards. Would they be enough? Would they be played in the appropriate manner?

Marina, on the other side, represents a bit of fresh air, but with many contradictions in terms of her political positions. She projects however a more caring image and that plays in her favour. It also plays for her the fact that she comes from very humble roots and the simplicity of her discourse. She might be the next president of Brazil. 

Targeting IS

The air campaign against the Islamic State, as those primitive extremists are now called, is basically about good targeting. Target definition is a labour-intensive, time demanding, costly exercise. It results of the combination of a large variety of information-gathering skills, related to human and technological intelligence activities. Very few countries are in a position to do that well. That´s an area where the EU armies need to acquire additional skills and means.

Then, there is the very delicate moment of target approval. Once the potential target has been identified, the action against that target needs to be approved by the right level of authority. This has to be done with great care, to avoid errors and collateral damage.

But all this is very effective in today´s world. This is the new way of neutralising real dangerous enemies. In the current circumstances, the message to the IS fellows is that they will be routed. There is the political will and the necessary coalition to do it. Those at the forefront of the air campaign mean business.

There is another message, this one for the young people in the EU that are planning to join the radicals in the Middle East. If you go, your chances are very limited. Either you will be caught when one of the targets is destroyed or you will be, like many others, killed in a hot fight with other rival groups out there. If you survive both situations, there will be a team of policemen waiting for you in Europe when you come back from Syria or Iraq. Therefore, be wise, keep quiet and do not go. To adhere to the extremism of IS has no future for you.

One-stream approach to crisis management

We are in the middle of a series of discussions about a comprehensive approach to crisis response. 

We all recognize how important it is to take into account the different instruments of power available to deal with a major crisis. And then we design the response, the plan of operations, we decide on the means and the ways. And we focus just on the instrument of power that is familiar to us. One single angle to sort out a multi-dimensional problem.

It is question of comfort zone. We prefer to stay with the tools we are used to handle. 

UN cannot be missing in action

The agreement reached between the two presidential candidates is key for the stability and security of Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani, the future president, and Abdullah Abdullah,  who will have his nominees in key positions within the new Cabinet and as governors of some provinces, are both top politicians and very reasonable, experienced individuals. They are among the best in the country´s political class. But they represent different domestic interests as their tribal links are based on geography and ethnic politics. The agreement between them should therefore be seen as a balancing act between the tribes from the North, closer to Abdullah, and the South that basically supports Ghani.

The balance was struck thanks to the continued efforts of John Kerry and the US ambassador in Kabul. The US made the agreement possible.

This has shown, as it is nowadays happening quite often, that the UN mission in the country has not been able to play the mediation role they should have. This is no good news. Particularly because the same weak role is now the trademark of the UN in some other conflicts around the world.

It might be the moment to raise one or two questions about the current state of affairs of the UN´s peace-making efforts.

Fortunately, on the same day the deal was announced in Kabul, the UN envoy in Yemen was in a position to convince the warring parties in that collapsing country to sign a ceasefire accord. That´s a bit of good news about the UN. But it is not enough. 

Sierra Leone´s Ebola keeps everyone at home

Sierra Leone is locked down for three days. The last day will be tomorrow. During this period no-one can be on the streets, anywhere in the country, unless it has a valid official reason. People have to stay in-doors and wait for the Ebola sensitization teams to visit the home and do the talk about the disease.

It is a major dramatic decision to lock everyone in at home for three days. I saw the President on TV, when he explained the reasons. Dr Ernest Bai Koroma, a man I know very well, we had many private lunches together and also many official meetings, looked old and tired. This tragedy has taken a very heavy toll on him and on his countrymen and women.

But his words were very wise. I really hope people will follow the health guidance that is provided. And that the international community will be up to the challenge and willing to augment the assistance. The disease is controllable but the country calls for additional support. And the population has to get rid of the political divisions, the ethnic fears and believe the President. 

Scotland

Very encouraged by the results of the Scottish referendum. It is a good cold shower on all the blind nationalisms and opportunistic politics across the EU. It sends the message that when it matters people come to the polls and express their will with wisdom.

Indeed, this is no time for further divisions in Europe. Just the opposite. The peoples of Europe have to stick together and be strong.

But the UK has not yet won the key battle: the battle against the anti-EU rhetoric that is gaining ground in different corners of the kingdom. That´s the true challenge ahead. 

President Obama´s Ebola call is vital

The decision taken by President Obama regarding the deployment of about 3,000 military personnel to Liberia to help the country to fight Ebola is a game changer. It has placed the epidemic in its true context as a grave menace to the political stability of the country and the neighbouring states, as well as a major human security threat. It is the survival of the entire region that is at stake, its peace and unity.

Ebola, as I have said in these pages in the recent past and also in my Portuguese language columns, is much more than a public health challenge. It has, of course, health dimensions that none can ignore. It is destroying very fragile national health systems, as it is already the case in Liberia. But it is above all a national and regional security threat for West Africa.

The countries concerned need all the help they can get.

Unfortunately, very few countries outside the region are taking the issue with the attention it requires. Maybe that will change a bit now that the US President has given Ebola the prominence it requires.

Cooperation in Europe is the only way to do business

The last thing Europe needs is war. That´s the message we have to send around. But we should also send an additional message: European countries should respect international law and the existing treaties. There is no way we can accept any exception to that. Those leaders who think they can ignore internationally accepted norms and agreements that have been signed by the European nations, including their own countries, are on the wrong side of history. They should be clearly told that. And if they persist, then there are sanctions of all types and sizes that can be applied. But always with the invitation for them to change course and accept that the only acceptable approach to relations among our States is the one based on full respect for the sovereignty and the domestic affairs of each country. The political and economic instruments are quite powerful in international relations. They should however be complemented by a build-up of national security and a strong public information campaign. 

The UN General Assembly is now around the corner

The annual session of the UN General Assembly is about to start. The agenda is diversified and it includes the new global approach to the development goals, environment and climate change matters, population growth issues as well as the usual high rhetoric but politically important speeches by some key world leaders.

Unfortunately, the UN is not in a position to come up with a road map for some very critical on-going conflicts, like the one in Ukraine or the situation in the Middle East, including an accepted agenda to fight extremism and human rights violations. Critics would say it shows the irrelevance of the UN as a mechanism for conflict resolution when the scale of the conflict is too big and related to the contradictory interests of powerful countries.

It is however too much to talk about irrelevance. The UN does what it can, what the member states allow it to do. And in some areas of intervention, like the ones I mention at the beginning of this post, it has done quite a bit. And it is still the only hope that remains for many in very poor and ill governed countries. 

Cuba sends 165 health personnel to Sierra Leone

Cuba has decided to deploy 165 medical and health services personnel to Sierra Leone to help in the fight against the Ebola pandemics. They will serve for a six-month period.

This is great news. It should be reported on the big media. It is important to show that West Africa is facing a major crisis and that the countries of the region need a much stronger response from the international community. 

In Riga with hope

When in Riga, as it is again the case at present, I am amazed by the elegance and good manners of its people. I can only wish they will be able to keep the society together, notwithstanding the linguistic and social divisions, and keep the economy growing.

The region might feel nervous because of the events in Ukraine. But the Baltic States are not in the same predicament as Ukraine. They are now part of the EU and NATO. They belong to a greater political space. And their geo-economic situation can be an advantage, a major trump card. They can be a strong link between the rest of the EU and Russia, once the situation goes back to normal. And I hope that will be the case one day in the coming future. 

11 September

This is a special day because of what happened thirteen years ago. But it is a bit worrying that the news of this day is about an escalation of the tensions between the EU and Russia. On the European side, today was decided to go ahead with the new round of sanctions against the other side. In Russia, the announcement was about military state of alertness and readiness and other conflict-related statements. This is indeed bad news. And this time the markets are getting very nervous about these developments. If you add to it the fact that the latest opinion poll in China and Japan shows that the public opinion of both countries is getting more and more antagonist, more convinced that conflict between them will erupt, then we can say we have a strange feeling about the state of peace in some parts of the world that are not far from our own yard. 

Juncker´s Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker came out as a strong leader, when he announced the Commisssion of the EU that he wants to put together. The choice of the first Vice-President, Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, is a very courageous one. Juncker still recognises the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini of Italy, as a Vice-President, but places the former Dutch Foreign Minister as his right hand. Furthermore, Mogherini has agreed to move out of the EEAS building and joining Juncker at the Berlaymont building. The proximity brings greater coherence, enhances team work and sends the signal that Juncker is the boss.

In addition, the letter sent to each Commissioner by the incoming President states clearly what he expects from each one of them. It also indicates the clusters they belong to and who will be leading each one of those thematic areas. This is modern way of going governance. It is also a message about coherence, cohesiveness and lines of responsibility.

Now, the next step is in the European Parliament. Juncker might face some opposition from the Socialist group. They consider their candidates were not given enough authority in the line-up presented today. It is true. But it is also true that most of the strongest candidates were nominated by Conservative governments that are in power throughout Europe.

The Western public opinion is not getting the point on Ebola

New research information shows that Ebola could spread across a number of regions of West and Central Africa. It is also already destabilising Liberia and Sierra Leone and could easily bring havoc to other neighbouring countries beyond Guinea. It would be a serious mistake to underestimate the human, social, economic and political costs of the pandemic. And we continue to see some opinion makers in our part of the world missing the point. 

The Scottish approach to circling the wagons

The forthcoming Scottish referendum on independence should be seen as part of a movement towards the circle the wagon approach: you and your companions make a circle with all the wagons available, to protect you from the incoming Indians…Scots and other peoples in Europe think they will be better off if they stay by themselves and avoid sharing anything with the neighbours.

This is against the dream of a greater union in Europe. And it is a simplistic and nationalistic response to the challenges of globalization. But it generates a lot of popular enthusiasm, no doubt.

A vote for independence in Scotland will encourage others to go the same road in other corners of the EU.

Keeping the parts together is critical to win

It is not always true that an alliance of states is stronger than one single state. The alliances are particularly fragile when its workings are based on consensus. Consensus at a time of crisis is difficult to build and sustain. And the key set of actions of the adversary is aimed at breaking the consensus, creating divisions, exploiting the differences and diverging interests. Furthermore, the adversary will spend a lot of resources trying to divide public opinion within the alliance. Public opinion is critical in the information age of today. The adversary knows it. Actually, very often it pays more attention to our public opinion than we do. And that´s one of the weaknesses we need to address. No conflict in this age can be won if we do not carry the vast majority of the citizens with us. 

Time to be wiser

Gas supplies from Russia remain a key trump card. We should not forget it. And since yesterday, this option seems less improbable than before.

 But the signs remain very confusing. There is, in many quarters, a clear intention to de-escalate. I also see the opposite, among many influential people. People that believe it is time to go for a fight.

An agreement is better than conflict.

However, capitulation is not the same as an agreement. An agreement is based on concessions on both sides. On being able to demonstrate that conflict is too costly to both sides.

Unfortunately, we are not yet at that stage. We still believe that we can carry the argument without taking into account the other side´s interests. And vice versa. The other side is still convinced they will manage to impose their views.

It´s therefore time for the elders to come up with a wiser view of the relationship. It is time for a dialogue road map. 

To neutralise Islamic State terrorists is a priority

It is urgent to pull together an international response to the Islamic State terrorists. This is no time for further hesitation, for soul-searching strategies, for non-critical political considerations.

The key move at this stage is to form a coalition of like-minded states – that excludes Assad´s government and Iran – and agree on what needs to be done to neutralise the threat. Among other things, it is important to share intelligence on key IS leaders, on convoys and deployments, on depots, and make a much greater use of offensive drones. To contain and destroy should be the key objectives. 

On trust

The Bled Strategic Forum is taking place today and tomorrow. In Bled, of course, Slovenia. This is a new kid on the block of international strategic meetings but looks promising. The Slovenian government invests a lot on it. And it´s trying to make it the key annual event of the kind in the Balkans. It is also making use of it to promote Slovenia as a crossroads in that part of Europe, for politics and business.

This year´s event puts a lot of emphasis on trust. Trust is critical for good leadership. And it is rapidly disappearing from politics, commerce and social relations. That´s a major loss, and I agree with the proposition. No trust, no progress. No trust, no social cohesion.

The debate of matters like this one is important. They look soft but they are at the core of a better world.