EU leaders walking through a minefield

Donald Trump´s presidency remains the main subject of conversation among the EU politicians. They are still figuring out how to deal with the new American leader.

At this stage the prevailing approach is basically about keeping a courteous distance from the man. Beyond the surprise, they don´t like what they see, that´s obvious. But the Europeans know that it is important not to antagonize Trump. However, more importantly yet, the EU leaders are very much aware that large segments of the European public opinion do not appreciate the new White House man at all. Actually, to be clear, those citizens consider that Trump´s values do not match the democratic practice the West has put in place during the last decades. They see Trump both as an extremely negative, destructive political actor and as a serious menace to the international order.

The EU leaders cannot ignore the views of their citizens. They are therefore walking a minefield. They know they have to be very careful. 

Our fascists are very happy

The fascist leaders of extreme right parties, in a small number of EU countries, spent the weekend in Koblenz, Germany, celebrating the victory of Donald Trump and strategizing. Trump´s election is seen with great delight by the most reactionary segments of our societies. And the fascist are convinced this time they can make it to power, as we go for elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

In view of this, we have to be even more convinced they will not get there. And be clear in our political combat against them. Europe has experienced fascism in the past and we should remind ourselves of the terrible pain we got then. It happened in Germany, of course, in Italy as well, but also in Portugal and Spain and some other places, when local extremist parties aligned themselves with the Nazis and their fellow collaborationists.

It´s time to be politically tough. Any mild approach to the fascist leaders will end up by encouraging them further. They might look good on TV. They might be more civil in their manners and speech than their brutal American friend. But they are just dangerous wolves in sheep´s clothing. 

Global leadership

A very simple question for the weekend: now that the new President of the US is manifestly not capable – or not interested, you chose the most appropriate word – of leading the world, who is going to fill the empty space?

Humanity will continue the common quest for peace and prosperity. That´s the way things are today, when there is greater conscience about the issues and a stronger popular determination to move forward. But where can we find the global leadership that such endeavour requires?

You might think of two or three possible names, of course. The question is then: do they have the right level of authority? Do they have the leverage that the leader of the most powerful country in the world used to have?

Let´s think about this. 

Farewell to President Obama

As President Obama completes his official mandate, I want to register my admiration for him as a politician. It is true there are decisions he took I would not support. Or that would make me uncomfortable. But he was by and large an inspiring leader and as humane as one can be when at the head of the most powerful country on earth.

History cannot be confused with the horizon in front of us. The short term commentary about Obama might be unfair and even harsh. We cannot be discouraged by the cruelty of immediacy and the blindness of partisanship.

We should be confident. And be convinced that history will be honest and kind to Barack Obama.

Gullibility

The more I listen to the noises made by the incoming US President on matters of international affairs, the more I get convinced that when it comes to his views about Russia and China he is a naïve. It´s all unsophisticated inspiration and no experience or wise listening to those who know about those countries ´political leaders. And that is certainly not good news, it can´t augur well for the US and their allies, especially when you have on the other side of the table foxy fellows like Putin and Xi. These two are no joke. They do not tweet. They plan. 

Who is in charge?

The journalist from Macao asked me who in the EU is taking the lead in the fight against populist and xenophobic ideas. It was a genuine question with a serious touch of apprehension. For someone from afar two things seemed to be obvious: that there is a growing extremist political wave in Europe and that some personalities are for sure fully engaged in combatting such trend.

Well, for me, the first part is indeed obvious. The current radicalism combined with old fashioned nationalistic fantasies is a matter of concern, for sure. But the other dimension – who is taking the lead and proposing a more generous and democratic alternative that would make the European dream great again, as someone would say – the answer is not so easy. Actually, I am still looking for an answer.

Mario Soares: a great European

Today, at the age of 92, Mario Soares, the former President and also Prime Minister of Portugal, passed away. He had been a symbol of freedom and democratic values during his days in politics. Furthermore, he was a firm believer in the unity of the European nations. Soares was convinced that Europe can only move into the future if it remains in peace with itself, mutually supportive and united. He was also an excellent example of leadership: unusual, not afraid of speaking his mind, and always connected with the feelings of the majority of the citizens. It is time to honour his memory and exalt his example. 

Elections money

Elections will take place in a number of EU countries this year. And interestingly enough, we will see those countries actively borrowing in the capital markets. Italy´s government will be number one. They intend to issue public debt bonds totaling € 271 billion. That´s a lot of money, to be paid by future governments and the younger people. France will be number two. They should be in market to borrow over €200 billion. Even Germany, with general elections later in the year, will be looking for fresh money in the financial markets: €160 billion.

The point here is to spend a lot on public goodies to get the voters happy and ready to support those in place. It´s short term politics against long term liabilities.

US and the EU

We have to get used and draw the consequences but the fact of the matter is that today´s US public opinion is less interested in European matters. Europe has lost space in the American political agenda.

My very best wishes

In my part of Europe, a region that has Brussels at the centre, about 60% of the citizens see 2017 with some apprehension. This disquiet results from a combination of different factors, including the unresolved issues related to mass migrations, domestic and international security, the uncertainty that comes out of the US presidential elections, and the perceived lack of leadership in some of our key European countries and the impact that might have on the future of the EU. Brexit, interestingly, is not at this stage considered as a major problem.

Nonetheless, the majority of the people are still very much in favour of the EU. It is important to sustain such support. And that responsibility should lie mainly in the hands of the national leaders. They should stop the practice of blaming the Brussels institutions or the European Central Bank for their domestic difficulties. We ought to be firm on this and openly criticise those who keep doing it in 2017. They are not the kind of politicians we need now.

This is a time to be positive. And fight for a stronger, clear-cut political New Year.