Renewed confidence in Europe

The EU leaders participating in the forthcoming G20 Summit, scheduled for next week, met today in Germany to coordinate their views on key agenda issues.

This was a very positive initiative, a development that should be recognised.

It shows a fresh level of determination in matters of European policy coordination and harmonization. It was also a manifestation of the new momentum Europe is experiencing and that gives us a new breath of confidence in our shared future. 

Brexit game

The Brexit formal discussions have finally been launched. The first meeting between the EU and the UK negotiators took place today. It was, from the European perspective, a good beginning.

The UK position evolved a great deal as a result of the popular vote in their recent general election. Today´s meeting showed a conciliatory approach. The British policy line seems to be to keep the country out of the EU political decisions and banner, and, at the same time, to maintain it strongly connected to Europe, including when it comes some critical political matters.

This policy is very British. It´s the extraordinary art of playing with ambivalence. To be out and in, depending which mirror you may use to look at the reality.

Oil and diplomacy

Last year, in the US, the number of shale oil wells has doubled. The American production is now 9.29 million barrels a day. That is about 47% of the country's daily consumption. And it takes significant pressure out of the international oil market.

It also brings the value of the barrel down.

It has consequently a major strategic impact on oil revenues in Russia and other key producers. The economic strength of such countries is seriously affected. And that will be the case in the foreseeable future. More so, as many developed economies are steadily moving out of fossil fuels into renewable sources of energy.

One of the lessons we should extract from these developments is that, when it comes to deal with adversarial countries, economic factors are at present much more effective – and acceptable – than the military ones.

A related lesson is that your adversaries will not take this matter lightly. Therefore, you must be prepared to confront them on the political field as well. And that means, among other things, promoting the appropriate public information campaigns, keeping your own citizens aware of the challenges at stake, and responding to hostile propaganda. But it also means to open dialogue lines of communication with those antagonistic countries. That´s the role of diplomacy. It is as important as ever.