Venezuela: mediation, mediation, mediation

Today’s situation in Venezuela moved a step closer to national tragedy.

Very concerned, the UN Secretary-General called for both Government and opposition forces to exercise “maximum restraint”. That is a necessary call.

But certainly not enough.

It is a passive reaction to a major development in the Venezuelan crisis. Antonio Guterres should also be offering his mediation authority. Mediation between both sides remains the only peaceful opening, the only hope to avoid additional loss of life and humanitarian suffering.

 I know the big bosses in Washington do not want to hear that word, mediation. They are simply betting on Maduro’s total defeat. But the Secretary-General cannot just pay attention to Washington. He is the voice of the world and the standard-bearer of common sense. His duty is to be at the service of peace. For that, he must underline in very clear terms that the UN good offices are the most reasonable way forward as far as Venezuela’s future is concerned.  

A weaker Emmanuel Macron

President Macron is losing direction when it comes to France’s domestic politics. I real think that’s a major issue, both for the French and for all of us, in the EU.

His press conference of this week was supposed to respond to many months of street protests led by the Gilets Jaunes and to draw lessons from the national debate the President had promoted throughout the country on several key topics. Under the national debate, hundreds of public meetings and town halls had been organised. Emmanuel Macron himself chaired some of the gatherings.

The press event has shown that the President has left behind some important political commitments he had made during the electoral fight. One of the most important has to do with the reform of the French state administration. The country needs to adjust the administrative machinery to the new needs of the citizens and, at the same time, rationalise the costs. The last time France had a balanced public budget was 45 years ago, in 1974. Since then, the official administration is living well beyond the means the economy would allow. The country is deeply in debt. Public debt is today around 2,200 billion Euros. This is unacceptable and it will have a serious impact on future generations. Instead of cutting unnecessary expenditures, President Macron announced new measures that will increase public spending and, sooner or later, will have to be translated into new taxes.

He has also been unable to deal with the sustainability of the national pension system. The French, like all of us, are living longer. But, for demagogic reasons, the pension age remains at 62. He should have increased that ceiling. In a related matter, there is a need to review the working week, which is currently capped at 35 hours. This has not been addressed.

President Macron comes out of all this much weaker. He has not been able to appease the Gilets Jaunes. And he is now seen by many in France as just another Hollande, a younger version of the last President. But more arrogant, which is something that is also bringing him down. His communication style is not the best in terms of connecting with people and the media. 

I really hope he will be able to recover from the current predicament. He has three more years to go.

Primitive Saudi Princes

The Saudi authorities have executed 37 citizens this week. They were accused of terrorism, as defined by the Saudis. The fact of the matter is that almost everyone was a Shia Muslim, a minority in Saudi Arabia that is not welcome and is seriously threatened by the regime that controls the country. And there is enough evidence that due process was not followed. Confessions were obtained under extreme torture and brought to the attention of the courts. The judges paid no attention to those claims. They just did what the Crown Prince and his clique wanted. And 37 people were beheaded in these times of today.

I really believe that the West must review its relations with some barbaric and deeply undemocratic countries. Saudi Arabia is one of them. There are more, including in the same vicinity. It is time for a different approach to diplomacy.

Security as a big issue

Terrorist threats will be a key security issue in the years ahead of us. 

In the case of the EU, some extrapolations indicate that in five-to-seven years we will have to keep a close watch on some 40 to 50,000 European residents that might be classified as S. This code letter means that one with an S in front of his or her name is a potential security risk, from a terrorist perspective. 

That’s a lot of people to keep monitoring. It will be very difficult to find enough resources to do it thoroughly. That means that cooperation and coordination between all the security agencies will be a fundamental requirement. It also means that the citizens must be prepared to ensure a greater level of security of their own collective initiatives.

The investigation must be thorough

The brutal acts of terrorism that occurred on Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka raise a good number of key questions. The answers are not yet known. They require time and serious analysis of every piece of information. One of the most important questions must be about the mastermind. The attacks have shown a very high degree of preparation, a well organised chain of command and a deep effort of indoctrination, the brainwashing of the suicide bombers. All this is profoundly disturbing. One needs to find out what kind of structure allowed this level of coordinated, well-targeted destruction. First, the families of the victims must know who is responsible. Second, we all need to be sure that such capacity to do evil is annihilated.  

Iran and its oil

The US Government’s decision not to renew the waiver given to China, India, Turkey, Japan and two or three more countries regarding the purchase of Iranian oil is very extreme. This basically means that any country buying Iranian oil after May 1 might find itself sanctioned by the Americans. In the tradition of international relations, such decision is equivalent to an act of war against Iran and a hostile move against the countries that import petroleum from Iran. It is a matter of great concern. It must be seriously debated.

Me and myself

Every day, and in the end, the real challenge is all between you and yourself.

Volodymyr Zelensky: the people's choice

Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian and a man of the people, has won the presidential elections in Ukraine. This is no small victory. It is a landslide, with about 73% of the votes in his support. It is above all the expression of a very deep frustration regarding the political elites and their inability to address corruption, poverty and conflict with Russia.

The people has spoken, and their choice is clear. Let’s hope for the best. One should see this result with some optimism.

Poor Sri Lanka

This Easter Sunday has been a sad day for humanity. In Sri Lanka, barbarians planned and executed a series of terrorist attacks against innocent people in churches and hotels. Scores died and many were wounded. And the country itself, still trying to find peace after so many years of a tragic civil war, has also seen its image being seriously affected. Everyone should express deep shock and strong condemnation of such violence.

Easter and our history

Easter is an essential part of our European culture. It is not necessarily about religion. But it is certainly about our roots, history, traditions and the associate narrative. And all that has nothing to do with bunnies and chocolate eggs. Let’s not mix civilisation with cocoa.

Notre-Dame and the response of the wealthy

Many people have shown sincere astonishment and expressed deep shock when told that a small group of French billionaires and some big corporations have pledged close to one billion Euros to finance the restoration of the Notre-Dame Cathedral. People compare such largesse to the poor response given to recent humanitarian appeals.

The gap is indeed abysmal and difficult to understand.

I do not pretend to know the minds of the very rich. But I have met a few. And they are indeed much more willing to give money to the arts, the protection of the natural world, the advancement of scientific research, and other broad issues than to alleviate poverty and address social issues like the plight of the homeless or drug addiction. Patron of the arts is a tradition that comes from the aristocratic times. It occupies a very high position in the status ladder.

Moreover, it is also my reading that many of those who became outrageously wealthy believe that poor people are responsible for their own fate. They kind of share the moral high ground those who have been successful in life love to place themselves. From those heights, they look at everyone else as people who have not been able to create their own life opportunities or have just accepted their condition without fighting back. Many rich people – and I am only referring to those who are generous enough to pay for big causes, I am not talking about the greedy and the corrupt – are convinced that poverty is an individual responsibility. They do not say it loudly. But they think people should have tried harder. They also believe that the social security systems are good enough to take care of those in dire need.

I am not trying to justify their approach, please be sure of that. I am just sharing an interpretation. My point is simple. If we do not comprehend the reasons, we cannot contribute to a meaningful change of the behaviour.

Indian elections and the need for balance

India is voting for a new Parliament. That’s a gigantic exercise, with over 900 million people on the voters ‘roll. It takes over five weeks to complete. But people trust the electoral authorities and that’s very good news. India’s electoral commission is an example to be followed by many developing nations. Particularly if one considers that the Indian political class is seen as very corrupt. There is a difference between the politicians and the senior civil servants. Functionaries are well prepared and very professional in the performance of their duties. And that’s why the electoral system is trusted. There is no political influence in the system.

The table below shows the main concerns the voters have in their hearts and minds. Jobs remain a major issue. India has nowadays millions of young university graduates. But not enough jobs for them. Many end up by performing low-skilled and low-paid tasks. They feel very frustrated.

However, there is hope in the future. When I visited last time, after twenty years without being back, I found a country that is modernising fast and full of optimism.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi might win the elections this time again. He is seen as resolute, clear-minded. However, I think his approach towards the Muslim Indians is not appropriate. He puts too much emphasis on the Hindu side of the culture, forgetting that India is a multicultural society and that social peace can only be achieved by politics of inclusiveness. Let's hope he goes back to a more balanced approach once the elections are over.

The politicians and the armed forces

In the “old Europe”, from France to Germany and through the Benelux, the public opinion is very divided regarding the possible increase in military budgets. Half of the citizens agree with the increase; the other half is not convinced. 

This situation places the governments in a very delicate position. They are stuck. And they have not managed to address the security and defence issues with the right words. Politicians in several European countries are not clear about the military. Therefore, many people understand the need for more money to be spent with the police services, with the prisons. But they are not sure about the role of the armed forces.

Europe cannot burn like that

Notre Dame de Paris. A major symbol of the European culture. In flames. In front of our eyes. 

Devastated. What a tragedy.

And, in some sense, what a illustration of the fate of today´s Europe.

It must be rebuilt. Our culture and our history must fight back.

Algeria and Sudan

Algeria and Sudan mean good news. It is so rewarding to have positive developments in these two countries. People are in the streets, fighting for democracy, after so many years of government brutality. And they are not ready to let change go and be just apparent. They want deep political reforms, serious constitutional changes. Civilian rule after the dictatorship of the intelligence services and the armed forces.

They will do it by themselves. There is no need for external pressure or interference. In both cases, we have populations that have shown political maturity and indomitable courage. They learnt, after so many years of hardship, to be strong and clear in their determination.

Assange and the legality of some cover operations

Julian Assange’s predicament leaves no one indifferent, in our part of the world. He has scores of supporters. Also, plenty of detractors. His personality, not just his deeds, is deeply controversial. I will not enter that discussion.

However, I recognise that, thanks to his initiative, it has been possible to demonstrate that a good number of actions taken by powerful Western governments, under the cover of national security and defence, surpassed the limits of what can be considered legitimate. Basic rights and values have been shaken by such actions.

And that brings back a fundamental question that remains unresolved in our democracies. The systems in place do not ensure a proper democratic, ethical and legal control of some undercover operations carried out by special military forces, or by specific police and intelligence services within the security apparatus. It has become obvious that our parliaments are not prepared to exercise such oversight. They intrinsically lack the competence and the political strength to carry out that role. And the justice machinery is basically in the same position of weakness.

I think it is time to envisage the creation of a constitutional body that would bring together a small number of elders, a group of sages who have reached the end of their professional ambitions and careers, and have behind them an immaculate life history, a public image of great credibility. This would be a top-level group mandated to oversee and assess complex legal and ethics practices as carried out by special government agencies. Such independent panel would report to an appropriate parliamentary committee.

This move would certainly respond to some key interrogations that we ought to deal with, based on what Assange and Wikileaks have revealed.  

Assange and the law

Julian Assange has a long legal battle in front of him. The decision about his fate must be based on the law. But his case has so many political ramifications that it will be difficult to separate the legal aspects from their political context. It will be a very controversial process.

Estonia's turn to the far-right

We do not pay too much attention to politics in Estonia. The received wisdom, in Brussels and in the Western part of the EU, is that the country is doing well and springs as an example of e-government and the connected society.

But these days, there are some less tranquilising news coming from Tallinn. The Prime Minister’s Centre Party, a member of the centre-right European family, has now decided, against all pledges, to establish a governing alliance with the extremists on the far-right and offer them five Cabinet positions.

EKRE, that’s the name of the extremist party, is not good political company. Some of its banners are inspired by white supremacist ideas and old-time national-socialist nightmares. 

Estonia is following the same path Austria has already taken. And others. That is certainly not an encouraging development for the rest of the EU. It shows the populists keep gaining access to power in different corners of the Union. European leaders cannot remain silent when these types of coalitions are put in place.  

Brexit is in town

Brexit night, again, here in Brussels. Theresa May wants a short postponement of her country’s Brexit date. That is certainly something that would make sense, now that her government and the Labour Party are engaged in talks. EU leaders could wait for those talks to conclude, be it that in the end there is no agreement between the two sides. The position could stand as a recognition of the merit of such talks, an invitation for a national decision on a matter that is of crucial importance to the British nation.

That would be my position in today’s summit meeting. Such position would give the UK Prime Minister some political strength, at a time when she is very weak, it would show respect to her and it could be supported by the European public opinion.

Europe and China: let's be constructive

The EU and China have their annual summit in Brussels today. The preparatory work has shown that Europe is now prepared to have a firmer position in matters of trade, investment and protection of industrial patents and copyrights. That is the right approach for the economic relations between both sides. Beijing might not like it, but they understand the rationale behind the European position. They fight for their interests, and we should fight for ours. That is the only basis for a sound relationship between two major international players.

When dealing with China, the EU must remain united around the principles of reciprocity, fair competition, and respect for the natural environment.

The Europeans have also to consider that we are dealing with State capitalism at its strongest form. Behind each big corporation, there is the Communist leadership of China and their concern with their own survival as a regime. For that, they need to expand the Chinese economic interests abroad, control new sources of wealth in foreign lands, and bring back prosperity to the people of China. Europe is a special land of business opportunities, an attractive economic space for big investments. That’s fine, if the basic international rules are respected and the link between each side is open to accept traffic on both directions.

Above all, the Europeans must keep in mind issues of national security. As far as we are concerned, China is a partner with greater potential for business but is also a first-grade geostrategic player. We must be able to keep our strategic sectors under our own control. That will contribute in no small manner to balance the geopolitical power of our Chinese neighbours. The world needs our contribution to the balance. Europe’s big challenge, in this area, is to remain a strong pillar of international wisdom.

Genocide: never again?

Today is a day of remembrance. In Rwanda, in Africa, here in Europe and in many parts of the world.

What started twenty-five years ago – a genocide that would last for over three months – is above all a Rwandan tragedy. But it is also a major failure for all of us, starting with the UN Security Council.

All the lessons have now been drawn. All the key responsibilities have been apportioned. But, can we say never again? I really hope so, like everyone else does.

It is true that countries do not want to recognise when a major calamity is in the making. Even when it is already in the horizon, some do not want to say they see it coming. That is also the case within the Security Council. However, I think the global information mechanisms are today more powerful. And that makes it a bit more difficult to pretend that there is no problem.

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

NATO days

NATO is seventy years old. It remains a unique type of organisation. Including because it brings together two very distinct ways of looking at geopolitics and is based on an ambiguous relationship between the political and military spheres of power.

Today, it operates in a very different world. And it is confronted with a complete new set of challenges. In all its organisational complexity, NATO has changed quite a bit during the last ten years or so. It has tried to adapt. 

But, in my opinion, it has not deserved the attention it should from the political leaders. Most of the political statements and positions on NATO are just ready-made, repetitive and half-baked declarations. That is not very strategic.

Wishing the British good fortune

The key European leaders and all those who have a balanced approach to opinion-making here in Brussels and other capitals have no intention of humiliating the British politicians. Moreover, as neighbours and because we share the same values and so many aspects of our European history, we also have a great respect for the British people.

Nobody wants to see a weaker, divided UK in the future. Such view would be an absolute foolishness.

I am sure Theresa May understands all that.

Brexit's new cards

Some people are saying that PM Theresa May’s statement, made this evening, is more of the same. I disagree. It is not. Cabinet did not spend seven hours discussing the matter for nothing.

The Prime Minister´s words are very clear.

First, there is no way she will preside over a No Deal Brexit. That is a key message. She understands the immense negative impact of such an avenue and might have been able to convince enough people in her Cabinet that such an option cannot be seriously considered. She might be very stubborn, but she is no fool. And she is determined in her opposition to a No Deal. I appreciate that.

Second, she has finally accepted she needs to reach an agreement with the Labour Party. That is also an important step forward. And she seems ready to give it a try. I appreciate the move.

Third, the most plausible option could now be the approval of her Withdrawal Agreement (WA) followed by a confirmatory referendum. Or, just the taking of the WA to the voters. That would also be the best option. The second best would be the approval of the WA in Westminster coupled with the endorsement by Parliament of a revised Political Declaration that would point in the direction of a customs union.

Things could be moving fast in the next few days.