The Libyan route out of conflict

The German government will host tomorrow in Berlin a conference that aims at bringing a solution to the civil conflict in Libya. The first step would be to reach an agreement on a ceasefire between the two main warring factions, the one based in Tripoli and the one led by General Haftar, a man from Benghazi. This is an important initiative, sponsored by Chancellor Merkel and supported by both President Putin and President Erdogan. Both Presidents have a deep interest in Libya, Russia on the Haftar side and Turkey on the national government based in Tripoli. Merkel’s role is simple: to provide a venue and encourage every party to accept the UN’s mediation. It is modest as an ambition, but in the extremely complex context of Libya, it is a big try.

Both Libyan factions will attend. But all the indications I am getting from inside the country refer that no side is ready for a compromise. Their participation in the Berlin conference is more a play to the gallery, an opportunity to show to their supporters that they have a recognised international status. OK, I accept that, but it is still positive to have them around to be told they must agree on a ceasefire.

Both sides have their international backers. And those backers are telling their Libyan friends that they can win the war. That’s a lie, in a country that is so deeply divided. In the context of Libya, as it is today, the only route towards peace is the one built on national concord and a proper power balance between the different regions of the country. That route cannot be drawn based on foreign influence. It must come the Libyans themselves.