The most important question of the day

What kind of post-covid world is it in the making? That is the key question that should be in many minds. That is the debate that needs to take place. With realism and balance, with tolerance but accepting all types of opinions. The answer is obviously a complex one. And certainly not a positive one unless we can convince the leaders to change course. I doubt. The crisis is too big and most of them just want to throw money at it to minimise its effects. That is not change, that is not innovation. It is just the continuation of the recent trends, with all their shortcomings.

Fighting the extremes

Polarisation and radicalisation of views might become two of the main consequences of the current health tsunami. People will withdraw into their little familiar spaces and will end up by seeing everybody who is outside of the small circle as a potential threat. Everyone will be perceived as either belonging or being a stranger. In the best of cases, they will look at them with a great dose of indifference. Political activists, from both extremes will try to take advantage of those feelings. There is a serious risk of seeing the extremist positions becoming more combative. The point is to be able to spot such trends early enough and be able to decry them. There are many tasks ahead, in these extraordinarily complex times. One of them is for sure to oppose any move towards radicalisation and identity politics.

Daring times

Many thinkers in our part of the world are advocating for a changed world. They are convinced the current global health crisis is a golden opportunity to build a more reasonable future. On the same vein, the UN Secretary-General is also talking about a “better world”.

I certainly would support an approach that would reduce the fragilities many people are exposed to and respect the environmental balance we all know it is needed. The big question is, however, how can we do it with the same old leaders? If there is no change in leadership, the chances we will see a transformation are extremely limited. Therefore, the point is to challenge the current leadership.

How feasible is that?

My question should not be seen as giving up. I am convinced it is important to draw lessons from the crisis and battle for them to influence the next choice of options. We are facing the first global crisis of the modern times. This is a global world with a global shock and a common set of deep problems. We have in our hands a unique opportunity to think differently and act otherwise. The UN should take the lead and set up a set of proposals for the consideration of the world leaders. It might not be heard to at the beginning. But it could rapidly generate enough popular traction and then the political leaders would have to take those ideas into account.

This is no time to be short in ambition and frightened by crazy people in power. It is just the opposite that must happen. It is time to show we can respond to the call of the future.   

The UN Charter and its long history

75 years ago, visionary leaders have signed the UN Charter and initiated what they thought would be a world without major wars. Their dream has not been fully realised but the Charter remains a solid pillar of the international order. We cannot discuss international affairs without referring to it. And the UN System is still around and doing important things in some key areas, such as peacekeeping, humanitarian and development assistance, and the promotion of justice and human rights. It could do much more, no doubt. But it is not easy, because of the deep antagonisms that currently exist within the Security Council and the lack of support for multilateral solutions, an approach that is particularly strong in Washington and Moscow. This unfavourable reality might change as we go into 2021, but the shift might not be as deep and wide as some expect. In my view, the best option is to bet on a stronger voice coming from the system itself. Experience has taught me that when the UN leaders opt for an independent and principled approach, they regain the initiative and augment their credibility. For that to happen, they must think about the function they are supposed to perform and less about themselves.

It is true we live an extraordinary complex moment. But the 75 years of presence in the world affairs remind us that history is long and can be better than the difficulties and the pessimism of the times.

We must be able to convince

The cooperation between nations has been seriously impacted by the current crisis. Each country decided the best way to battle the pandemic was to close the borders and focus on the its domestic issues. Such an approach can somehow work if the country is wealthy with a modern, extensive, and diversified economy. Australia is a good example. Even Norway, at a much smaller case, can also be mention as an example. But every country, rich or poor, depends on international trade, investments, or development aid. These three areas have lost speed. They will take quite a bit of time to recover. But above all, we must insist that today’s and tomorrow’s world can only address the issues of recovery, peace and security, climate change, and poverty, if countries cooperate and see themselves as part of a community of nations with a common destiny. The United Nations System and all the regional arrangements must regain their credibility. The challenge in this case is to be able to lead the narrative about a better world. It must be a convincing one, based on a constructive and balanced approach. Most of the visions that are being shared are not seen as balanced. They create a lot of fear in the minds and hearts of those who control economic power and the information networks. That is the reason why they do not get to the front pages. It is time to be a bit smarter when talking about the world we all need to put in place.

Our current tsunami

We cannot look at tomorrow’s world with yesterday’s eyes. But that is what most of us are doing because that is the way we feel more confident. We know there is a major transformation taking place these days. However, we keep hoping that the future will be just a copy of the past, with some adjustments, we can accept that, and nothing else.

I am afraid it will not. This pandemic is a major shock for every nation. It is, at the same time, a global and a local tsunami.

Screen politics

I call it TV democracy. People spend years watching superficial and foolish things on their TV screens – most of the channels are just light on substance and short on comprehensiveness – and then acquire a simple and biased view of public life. They are therefore ready to vote for people like Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro, meaning, for simple minds that speak to the most common stereotypes and views. Those elected have the legitimacy the polls give to the winners. But they do not possess the knowledge and the experience that are required to lead a country. They know that. They react to it through arrogance and a fighting stance. And they keep implementing demagogic and inflammatory policies, to hide their weaknesses and respond to the primary feelings of the TV watchers. Their leadership is based on showmanship, on theatrics, and on headlines.

This ends up by eroding the democratic institutions and creating deep fractures within the nation. These leaders are expert dividers, specialists on managing people’s passions and instincts.

TV democracy is a serious threat to national progress, social cohesion, and stability. Unfortunately, in many countries, we seem to be moving in such a direction.

Pandemic and confusing days

The pandemic is still moving around, in our corner of the world. It is not just a problem in the Americas or elsewhere. It should continue to be seen as a dramatic challenge we all face, everywhere. European countries are opening up. But it would be a mistake to believe we are out of the woods. Every measure of prudence must be adhered to. And governments cannot stop the health education campaigns around the Covid. Better, they must be clear in their messages. And the strongest messages are about wearing masks, keeping a distance and avoid crowds, all types of crowds.

I know we are requested to find a balance between health and the economy. I am for the opening of the economic activities, including international travel. However, all of this must be implemented with a deep sense of civic and personal responsibility. Politicians, associations, and every citizen carry a good deal of responsibility. The roles and expectations must be clearly defined. Then, we know what to demand from each one. And what are the red lines we must follow.

There is a great concern with the economic recovery. In most European countries that is the main worry. I fully understand it. The shock is very deep, and the prospects of recovery are uneven, at best. In some countries, with weaker and less diversified productive basis, the prospects are indeed very sombre. I think the quickest way to recover is to let people be responsible in an environment that respects the sanitary norms and, at the same time, gives each one of us a chance to live in the “new normal” and take charge of our own destiny. This no time for unjustified constraints, beyond those that have a scientific reason.

It is also no time to keep children out of the schools. They must go back to a safe and well-organised classroom. They need to be in contact with their age group and their little friends. That is how the socialisation and the learning happen.

A complex strategic game between China and India

The recent brutal border clashes between China and India caused about 20 deaths on the Indian side and an unknown number of casualties on Chinese camp. People might not know, but no bullet was fired by the opposing armies. There is a compromise between the two countries not to shoot at the other side. The soldiers fought hand-to-hand, with clubs embedded with nails or barbed wire, and other blunt weapons and rocks. Some of the Indian men were pushed into the icy waters of the Galwan river or over the mountain ridges.

That was a vicious confrontation, that brings us back to ancient practices. But it is a good illustration of the strategic rivalry that is developing between these two giants, both armed with sophisticated weaponry and nuclear capabilities. At the local level, in their border disputes – there are at least three fronts where those disputes are continually active – they go for sticks and nails. At the diplomatic level, they play the complex game of subtle threats combined with frequent high-level meetings and, on the Indian side, a special relationship with the United States, a matter that is seen as a major issue by the Chinese.

It is fascinating geopolitics but not for those who fight in the cold of the Himalayas.

We are going back the big way

If I had to select a piece of today’s news, I would go for the WHO Director-General’s warning that the pandemic is still growing in many parts of the world. It has now reached every nation. Many countries are now at a standstill. In some of them, even internal travel is not allowed.

Poverty is expanding rapidly in developing countries. The world is losing what it gained in decades of development assistance. It hurts to acknowledge such a fact, particularly for someone who spent decades in the development line of work. The only hope is that once the pandemic is under control the know-how that has been created in those countries all these past years will be mobilised for a quick recovery. For that to happen, those countries will need major capital injections. The international institutions will have to be the key advocates of such assistance.

Dark clouds in the horizon

The eurozone banks are borrowing heavily from the European Central Bank. Current borrowing amounts to €1,31 trillion. They take the money at negative interest rates, which means that they are paid to borrow. The negative rates are now around minus 1 per cent. By doing so, the ECB is telling us that the funding needs are enormous and that the crisis resulting from the pandemic is very deep.

The picture shows me three more things.

One, that we have too many private banks in the eurozone. Some countries, with small economies, have an incredible number of banking players. Tiny banks are particularly vulnerable to shocks. They represent an additional financial risk at a time of many hazards.

Two, most of the borrowing has been applied by the banks in the purchase of government bonds. That means the ECB is using the commercial houses – and paying them a fee – to finance exceptional and current government expenditures. Public debt is growing fast and in a non-productive way. Its growth goes hand in hand with the tremendous levels of debt of the enterprises and of the poorer segments of the population. Overall debt, in some countries of the zone, is reaching unsustainable levels.

Then, my third point. Conservatives and extreme right parties and movements in richer eurozone States are getting ready to challenge the policy options of the ECB, particularly their easy money funding programmes. These challenges will combine political activism with legal proceedings. As an example, the ultra-nationalist and extremist German party Alternative for Germany has announced today they will move a legal action against the ECB’s emergency programme. It would be a mistake to underestimate this decision. That goes along the recent ruling of the country’s Constitutional Court on a comparable matter. And it must be seen in conjunction with the position that The Netherlands, Finland, and a few others have taken, asking for conditionalities to be added to the Von der Leyen rescue plan.

As I see it, all this contains the seeds for further divisions in Europe. This time, the division might mean severe rupture. It is the future of the Union that is at stake.

Fighting for a changed approach to security in conflict zones

Following what I wrote yesterday about the national armies in some of the Sahelian countries – that their low operational capacity is one of the key problems, on top of their human rights shortcomings and other serious governance issues – I was reminded by a friend of the example of Somalia. The international community, including European resources, have been engaged in the country for a long time with little results. Billions have been spent and many lives lost. However, the terrorists are all over, including in the capital city. And the national army, that we all have trained and keep repeating is essential to solve the insecurity threats, has a fighting capacity that is estimated at 8%. That means that almost everyone in the army is not prepared to fight an asymmetric war and cannot collect the intelligence needed to crush the terrorist cells. Or, there are two fundamental dimensions of any stabilisation project. They are not enough but if they do not happen nothing else can be achieved.

That’s why I keep repeating that we must look at these matters with frankness and be clear about what is going on and what needs to change. If we fail to do it, if we keep pretending and talk niceties, we will keep investing in the sand of those vast deserts. We will be wasting resources and lives. And we will be undermining the credibility of the international institutions and other players that are operating in such contexts. Can’t we find the courage to shift our approach?

The Europeans and the Sahel: a fake dialogue

A ministerial meeting of the International Coalition for the Sahel was held on Friday, 12 June 2020 and co-chaired by Mauritania, the EU and France.

The Sahel is going through enormous challenges. Therefore, an initiative like this conference can only be considered as positive. The problem is, however, that the emphasis was basically placed on the security dimensions, without a proper discussion about the human rights issues and the poor governance that prevails in much of the region. The armed forces of the G5 Sahelian countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger – are weak, except for the Chadian ones, and have a questionable record in terms of human rights. The weaknesses are ignored by the European partners and the human rights dimensions are always absent from the debate. Besides that, there has been a proliferation of militia groups, particularly in Burkina Faso. They are supported by the national governments and the experience has shown that they have become part of the problem

The Europeans, led by the French, are not fully sincere when discussing the Sahel situation. Their dialogue with the Sahelian leaders is not frank. It is too formal, full of niceties. It does not touch the root causes of the ongoing conflicts. And without frankness, there is no way the fast deteriorating situation can be addressed. It will continue to worsen.

Libya, Turkey and us

After Syria, Libya has become the new confrontation ground between Russia and Turkey. In both cases, confrontation means bullets, military deployments, and death. In Libya, Russia supports the Benghazi-based Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his forces, whilst Turkey has come into the country to fight side by side with the Tripoli-based Unitary provisional government, led by Fayez al-Sarraj. For the time being, the Turkish side of the conflict has gained more ground than the men Moscow has bet on.

 All this has a strategic impact on Europe and should be seen with great concern. Any decision and any critical move by these two countries might become a serious threat to Europe’s stability and security. Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are no friends of Europe. I say so, and at the same time, I do not forget that the latter is the leader of a country that is a member of the NATO Alliance. Erdogan is the peril within.

First, the confrontation between both can bring Europe into a clash with Russia if Turkey invokes its membership of NATO and calls for assistance. However, I am not particularly worried by such possibility as I expect the key leaders of the Alliance to find a way of saying no to a Turkish request for assistance against Russia. Therefore, this prospect is rather remote.

The real problem is that President Erdogan is now in control of the two main migratory routes that bring illegal immigrants into the European Union. The Eastern one runs through his own country and he knows how to make use of it to put pressure on the European politicians. And now, being heavily present in Tripoli and the surrounded areas, his men and their Libyan allies are in command of the Central Mediterranean migratory lane. That gives President Erdogan enormous leverage when dealing with European countries. Mass migration remains a major issue that can seriously undermine the unity and the continuation of the EU. The Turkish President knows it and will keep playing that destabilising card to his own advantage.

Here, like in other areas, the EU foreign policy is being outsmarted by our adversaries.

Our dictators and our democracies

In any democratic society, as we understand them in our part of the world, to rule by decree or by Presidential Orders can only be accepted in exceptional circumstances. Besides that, it becomes a worrisome practice, that might easily lead to abuse of power and end up as an autocratic way of governing.

The separation of powers is still the best approach to democracy. But we should not forget that it requires an independent, impartial judiciary as well as a legislative chamber that is more than a rubber-stamping body.

Unfortunately, we are seeing the opposite in some of the most powerful Western countries. We stare at Presidents that ignore the institutions and the representative system and govern as if to be in charge means to be campaigning all the time. And we know of Parliaments that act only along partisan lines, with no will to be more than an excellent job opportunity that must be kept by being faithful to the party bosses. Not to mention the judges that are either relics of the past or just too concerned with the public opinion.

There is indeed a crisis of democracy in our countries. And I am not going beyond our corner of the world. In other corners, the situation can be even more dramatic.

Against those who divide us

The true leader brings people together. His/her main strength is the ability to create large coalitions by emphasising what is shared by many and proposing a way forward that appears as rewarding to most of the people. The politics of division and confrontation are the weapons of those who lack ideas and ideals. Politicians of that calibre end up by bringing disaster upon themselves and on those who believe in them. Therefore, it is our duty to combat them and make sure that they are out at the end of the next electoral day.

New era, new questions

Have the big questions changed because of Covid-19? What are the essential questions we all face today? Is there a new ranking in terms of global priorities? Do we see global threats differently? Can we keep trying to respond to shared problems through nation-based measures? Are we asking ourselves the right questions?

A plane trip in the new normal

Yesterday, I took the plane for the first time in this post-Covid era. I had a compelling reason to travel.

It was a three-hour trip out of Frankfurt. And I got a couple of surprises. First, the aircraft was full. Like in the old days. It is true that everyone was wearing a mask, but every seat was taken. And this is still a time of restrictions on travelling abroad, even within the Schengen area. Second, there were all types of passengers, from young families with small kids to older couples, and everyone in between. I would have loved to ask my fellow passengers what the reason for travel was, but I had no authority to do it. I know that the airline had asked them a similar question, in very vague terms and without requiring any supporting document. Third, there was no health or temperature checking before embarkation. Just a request to keep a safe distance before passing through the boarding pass control, a request that was in contradiction with the crowding on board.

Upon arrival at the destination, there was a temperature check. And that was it. We all left the airport to go and take care of our own business.

My conclusion was that it is better to re-open the air travel soon. And, at least, check the temperature of the would-be passengers before boarding. If there are more options to travel, more flights available, there might be less crowding on each plane. This should go hand in hand with the lifting of restrictions on cross border road and train trips.

At the same time, it is important to keep repeating the recommendation for people to think twice before travelling. Many will follow such advice, I am sure.

A busy summer ahead of us

People in Europe are rapidly moving past the pandemic and looking forward to a normal summer. There are still a number of restrictions in place, in most of the countries, but everyone seems convinced that by the end of the month they will be lifted. Optimism is a good thing, particularly after a difficult and long period of deep constraints, not to mention death, sorrow and anxiety. It might be somehow unjustified, but as I think of it, I get convinced we need a good dose of hopefulness. It helps us to move forward.

Beyond the health dimensions, it is true that for a good number of people the prolonged crisis has meant a serious loss of income. For others, it dramatically means either unemployment or job insecurity. It also threatens the survival of many companies, with a serious impact on national wealth and public revenue, well beyond the employment dimensions. We must be aware of all this and promote the right social and economic policies that we believe are most appropriate to respond to the many forthcoming challenges. And as we write or speak about these things, we must find a way of mixing realism with optimism.

The decision the European Central Bank has just announced, adding another 600 billion euros to the pandemic-related bond purchasing mechanism, is at the same time very encouraging and a clear indication of the crisis we are in. Money in substantial amounts is critically important. But we must be very judicious about the priorities and wise, in terms of change. The money must be an instrument of recovery, I agree, but also, a powerful tool to promote change.

One of key priorities must be the reestablishment of the education system. I have seen how the primary and secondary school pupils are being affected by the closure of the schools. Their current virtual studies are little more than a lie or a joke. It is crucial to create all the conditions to re-open the next school year, in September, effectively. Not much is being talked about that, less still is happening in terms of action. Teachers and academic authorities must be assisted from now on to create the conditions for a rentrée that makes sense and brings everybody back to the reorganised classrooms.

In the end, as we approach the summer period, we realise that this should be a very intense period of work. We must recuperate what has been lost and look forward to a better horizon.

The US is going in the wrong direction

Poor American society. I should not say more than that this evening. But I believe there are enough citizens in the United States who understand that the current direction must be changed, by democratic means. To continue the same path can only bring added conflict, divisions, and violence. That is not the kind of ally we want to have. That is not the kind of superpower that can make the world safer

The drifting United States

The US is in crisis and I feel deeply sorry for the many friends I have in that great country. It continues to be deeply affected by the coronavirus pandemic, more than 100,000 lives have been lost and millions of people are without a job. Now, there are demonstrations and anger in many cities in response to police brutality and racism. The African-Americans are the main target of the racist attitudes we can easily notice within the police forces and in some segments of society. But the key problem resides in the political leadership of the country. President Donald Trump is a man that stirs up conflict and social disharmony. His approach to power is based on antagonising part of the American society. It is the politics of the hatred and rejection, splitting the citizens in two clear-cut groups: the supporters and those that he sees as enemies. At a time the country needs solidarity and unity of purpose, President Trump brings in discord and resentment. Seen from this side of the ocean, that is the most direct route to a deeper national disaster. And we can only be extremely worried because the US are the most powerful nation on earth. It cannot be adrift, rudderless.