EU recovery winds

In the EU, this month of July ends with a more optimistic note. At least, that’s what some analysts would like us to believe. They are now saying they see some signs that the worst of the economic crisis is past. That we might return to positive growth rates during the second half of the year.

If we look at the recovery in Ireland, we might come to the same conclusion. I am certainly very encouraged by the level of international investment the country is able to attract, which is a clear indicator that confidence is back and the overall macro-economic framework is getting the right shape. 

But one swallow doesn't make a summer. 

We can even forget Greece and its chronic development challenges. We cannot however be blind to the economic situations in Italy and Spain. These countries are not out of the woods. And they combine economic depression with political fragility. This is the worst combination we can have as one of the keys that opens the door of recovery is a strong government with a clear popular mandate and indisputable political legitimacy.