Let the intelligence people do their work

The most dangerous mistake regarding North Korea could result from erroneous intelligence. It´s a real possibility. I know from a number of examples that intelligence agencies, even the best resourced and the most experienced ones, tend to make mistakes on critical matters. That´s particularly the case when they are under serious political pressure, as it is the case.

If the relevant intelligence people come to the conclusion that the North is about to launch some kind of nuclear or other threatening device, our side might then decide that the time for pre-emptive action is upon us. In these matters, decisions are taken fast.

Once they have been taken, it might be too late to contain and mitigate their multiple consequences.

Therefore, the first point in such a delicate situation as the current one is to make sure the intelligence work is carried out as professionally as possible, outside any type of political compulsion. Secondly, it is essential to fully consider the regional leaders ´opinion. Particularly, the South Korean ones, who are at present at the end of a decisive presidential campaign for an election scheduled for May 9. This is their region and in the world of today, their views are of paramount importance. 

Dangerous times in the Korean Peninsula

The North Korea´s dangerously aggressive posture remains a major issue in the international political agenda. Consequently, the UN Security Council met yesterday on the matter. This was a meeting at the ministerial level as to demonstrate the seriousness of the most recent developments related to the country.

The US approach to make use of extreme diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang deserves support. Diplomacy passes through Beijing. The key to convince Kim Jong Un to abandon the accelerated missile and nuclear programmes is held by China. Therefore, the efforts on the diplomatic front must focus on very close contacts with the Chinese leadership.

It is also true that China does not appreciate a deeper US presence in the region. In particular, it remains strongly opposed to the THAAD missile deployment that the US has launched in South Korea. But that disagreement should not be an excuse. China must use all its leverage on North Korea.

The US additional show of force can be justified by the recent threats coming from the North. It should also be recognised that it contributes to intensify the atmosphere of crisis. But it is also obvious that the main cause of tension comes from Kim´s options.

The North Korean leader must understand that the American policy has changed. It is in his own interest, besides the interests of his fellow citizens.

In the last few hours there have been some noises regarding direct action against Kim himself. I would not be surprised if it is confirmed that such action is under review. However, that or any preventive strike – and we have been further away from a strike than we are today – would cause hell in the Peninsula, and in the region.

I trust that people who decide about these matters fully understand what is at play.

On robots

Today I only have questions. And they are in a very different field but in the end they might be of tremendous importance for matters of peace and human rights. And these are the two most important dimensions in any human life.

But let's list the questions. They concern robots.

Can we teach robots ethics and international law? Do we need to?

Is there a real threat that robots could go beyond the actions they have been programmed for? What should be the limits when designing and programming an extremely smart robot?

Maybe it is time to start looking at these interrogations.

Time to be very clear

The campaign for the final round of the French presidential election – to be held on May 7 – has started. The actions so far show a country that is deeply divided. And also, leaders that have lost their sense of direction and above all, the courage to be clear about what is at stake. We are confronted with a terribly dangerous mix of abysmal personal resentment with a large and widespread dose of political confusion.

It is obvious this is a time that calls for profound changes in the way politics are conducted in France.

Le Pen´s camp belongs to the old order. It represents the past in so many ways. Certainly, not the future.

Furthermore, I see a lot of rage in the ranks of her supporters.

And Le Pen's political style and posture reminds me of the caudillos of another era.

We should not be blind to the way she conducts her public performances and deaf to what she says. This candidate and her words are animated by feelings of intolerance, resentment, negative passions, and violence against the opponents. 

These destructive attitudes and beliefs should be exposed relentlessly. 

Focus on a conflict at a time

The recent US statements on the current status of the Iran Nuclear deal are not wise. They contradict the position of all the other signatories of the agreement, leaving the US alone on such a delicate matter. That´s what I would call to paint oneself into a corner by trying to appear smarter and bolder than the other key members of the international community.

Furthermore, the new war of words coming from Washington towards Iran opens an additional front of conflict at a time no one has a clear understanding of the Trump Administration's strategy on Syria and North Korea. Why should they want to have one more problem on the table at this stage when the two others are already complex and dangerous enough? And confusing, as well. 

A comprehensive view of criminal behaviour.

The assailant that yesterday attacked the police officers on duty at the Champs Elysées had a long past of criminal behaviour. He spent many years in jail. And all those who knew him a bit agree he was a deeply deranged fellow.

 As we take these facts into account, we must raise a number of questions about the workings of the penitentiary system, the failures – or at least, the limitations – of the re-education programmes, the inefficiency of the back-to-society policies and also the way our institutional arrangements miss the target when it comes to deal with extremely violent people. 

All these matters need to be seriously thought through, and challenged, if we are indeed committed to making our environment safer.

It´s not enough just to speak about terrorism.  

Turkey´s path

It´s worrisome to see the Turkish society being pushed towards more political radicalisation and deeper national divisions. It´s also a matter of great concern to watch its leadership moving away from accepted democratic principles. And taking the country in a direction that is contrary to greater proximity with the EU. 

Our dear unpredictable enemy

There are a number of shockingly bizarre leaders and unacceptable governance regimes in the world. The North Korean one is certainly the strangest system. But, above all, it is a very serious menace to peace in the region, not to mention the human rights violations its citizens suffer on a daily basis.

It is also an extremely militarised country. By far, number one on this category. And on top of it, it is absolutely unpredictable.

The unpredictability is the main cause of deep concern in the region and also for the US, a country that has a strong strategic presence in the Korean Peninsula and in neighbouring Japan.

Today, the most pressing question is how to deal with such unpredictability. That´s what is under very active discussion in the special rooms where strategy is formulated. 

Talking about North Korea

The North Korean problem is very much linked to Kim´s power base. Therefore, its solution passes above all through a package of actions that can undermine the dictator's personal standing. Among other measures, which also include ridiculing the man, the diplomatic and economic ones are the most impactful. That means a very high degree of diplomatic isolation of the regime and the intensification of the economic and financial sanctions.

The question cannot be resolved through bombs and bombastic declarations. Such an approach would be used by Kim Jong-Un to his own advantage. External military action against the regime will allow him to further entrench himself in power.   

A disciplined and strategic approach

I see the authority of Gen. HR McMaster being consolidated within the White House. And I would like to believe he will be able to get enough support in the Defence and Intelligence circles to master a strategic influence on the President and be able to instil a more disciplined approach by the top cat.

It's true I do not ignore the nature and traits of the President's personality and his tendency to play by his own sheet of music. The question then is very clear: will McMaster and his think-alike friends be able to contain the explosive reactions of their boss when vital matters will be at play? The new trend looks encouraging but it´s too early to make a call.  

The reform of the UN Security Council

Acts of war and drawn-out conflicts are among the key factors that undermine the authority of UN Security Council. Actually, they have a major negative impact on the Council. And they are in open contradiction with the positions stated by some key members of the UN that keep repeating that it is important to improve the functioning of the Council and abide by its decisions.

This reminds me that the reform of the Security Council is not just about revisiting the issue of its membership. That one is already an impossible goal. However, it seems easier to achieve than the issues related to improving the Council’s capacity to resolve conflicts that are directly related to the strategic interests of its permanent members. Or the Council's approach to long lasting impasses. What could be the accepted doctrine on intervening in that type of intractable conflicts?

Trump´s most pressing international challenges

This week, President Trump has been directly trapped by Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Kim Jong-un of North Korea. Both dictators decided to challenge the incoherence that defines the global policy of the new US President. Assad with sarin, the gas that he dropped from his airplanes and killed scores of innocent people. A true war crime, by all measures. Kim by firing a new missile towards the Sea of Japan, just a few days prior to his powerful neighbour´s visit to Florida for a first meeting with the big man from Washington.

He is also being challenged by Vladimir Putin. This special, unique strongman created the most absurd “explanation” to excuse the war crime committed by his ally in Syria. And decided to continue to block any action the UN Security Council could have taken on this appalling crisis.

The US President cannot limit his response to these major challenges to words of condemnation and expressions of outrage. They are essential, indeed, but not enough at this stage. He came to the White House as man of action and determination. He has now to show his resolution. Actions ought to match the promises.

But he has very narrow options.

The first one is about prioritising. He has to focus on one of his challengers and show that man that Trump means business. And that priority as things stand now should be about Assad. It must combine diplomatic initiatives, including a serious push for an international commission of inquiry, with other political measures and direct military pressure. The package has to be multifaceted, clear in its purpose, well explained to everyone but also limited in its range, in its initial stage.