Biden and Putin: they have the keys

Biden and Putin: an indispensable dialogue

Victor Angelo

 

When leaders like Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin spend two hours in a frontal discussion, we, simple mortals, can look at it positively, even when the results seem uncertain. I have always argued that major crises should be directly discussed between those who actually hold power. Leaving such crises to be dealt with at the level of foreign ministers, however experienced, is not enough. So often it only serves to aggravate misunderstandings and pander to extreme positions. We often see ministers who are more papist than the Pope. Even when they foresee solutions, they do not dare mention them, for fear of the leader's reaction. It is up to the leader to send appeasement signals, to show the way and mark the bounds, which are now known as "red lines".

That is what Biden and Putin sought to do. And this is the way they should continue, preferably in personal meetings. Diplomacy is done with handshakes. Even in times of pandemic. Leaders know this. That is why Emmanuel Macron was in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia a few days ago, with much success, regarding the French war industries - and much criticism from human rights activists. And Pope Francis, who does not stop despite apparent physical frailty, went to Cyprus and Greece. Vladimir Putin himself made a lightning trip to India on Monday to spend a few hours strengthening relations with Narendra Modi, encouraging trade and, above all, deepening political-military cooperation.

A positive outlook does not prevent us from seeing the gravity of the current situation. The massive deployment of troops and exceptional logistical means in Russian regions close to the eastern border of Ukraine makes one think, whether one likes it or not, of the preparation of a military offensive. That is the interpretation that prevails in the main European capitals and in Washington. Some academics and others with an open window to the media street say it is a way for Moscow to apply pressure, to get certain political guarantees coming from the opposite side. That may be so. But the truth is that this reading is not accepted by Western leaders, who see in Russia's military moves all the signs of a short-term warlike action against Ukraine. The pretext for such action would be to counter a hypothetical campaign by Kiev against the pro-Russian separatists who control the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. The Kremlin swears it has no intention of intervening militarily, but this message does not get through, because of the extraordinary degree of mobilisation on the ground. Putin needs more than solemn declarations on the right to homeland defence, a statement that makes no sense since nobody intends to invade this or any other part of the Russian Federation. 

Indeed, Russians and Westerners need to get out of the trap they have let themselves fall into, especially since 2013, as if there should be a permanent hostility between the two. Unfortunately, it seems that only demonstrations of force make eyes open. So, on the Western side, there is now a threat that has been clearly explained to Putin. But it is not a military threat. It would be a package of measures that would have a huge impact on the Russian economy, which is no longer in good health. Russia would be cut off from a large part of the international financial and payment systems, which are in fact controlled by the Americans, it would have immense difficulties in changing its roubles into euros and dollars, not to mention other restrictions in terms of investment, trade, and travel to Europe. Biden was very shrewd in his approach. Before and after his conversation with Putin, he involved Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom in the consultation. We have a cohesion of five. For prudence's sake, I believe, it does not include Poland or any other Eastern European country. It is clearly an agreement that tells us that we are at a dangerous crossroads and that the continuation of the conversation between the leaders is the indispensable way forward. 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper. Edition dated 10 December 2021)

 

 

A stronger European Union

The European Recovery Fund, proposed by the President of the European Commission, was favourably received in the various capitals of the Member States. The Italians and the Spaniards were happy, on one side, and the Scandinavians as well, notwithstanding earlier positions regarding the need for conditionalities.

It is, in fact, a balanced plan, which reserves a good part of the resources for grant-type financing. And it adds an incredible amount of money to other resources already announced, either by the Commission or by the European Central Bank. Ursula von der Leyen demonstrated opportunity and vision. Her standing as head of the Commission comes out strengthened. Of course, behind all this, we can guess there is the support of Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble, who is now President of the German Federal Parliament and who continues to have a lot of power, on the domestic scene of his country. In the end, these things happen if the Germans are on board. They do not express it too loudly, but their voice is the determinant one in matters of common economic policies, agriculture excepted.

Africa is calling me

I got a few calls in the last couple of days from African friends who live in different parts of Africa. They all wanted to know if I was feeling well. They were worried about me and my family, as we live in a dangerous part of the world, the unsafe Europe. I was very pleased to be able to chat with them. And amazed that the concerns were now running in the opposite direction. It was no longer me calling them to find out how is Kinshasa, or Bulawayo, Bujumbura, Freetown, Ouagadougou, Bamako treating them. That has been the tradition. But now, we live in a new normal, a world that has changed so fast in last few weeks. As one of them told me today, I am now at the epicentre of global crisis. And indeed, we all are, particularly in Italy, France, Spain, and so on. There is only one concern in the air. And every conversation is about the same subject. The same subject that made my worried African friends call me.

Crying for Italy

Today, we should say we are all Italians. The country is going through a catastrophic health crisis. The number of casualties is now bigger than the one experience by China, a nation that is many times more populous than Italy. We can only be deeply disturbed and extremely sorry.

The lessons will be drawn later. At this stage, it is vital to provide all types of support to the Italian health system. That should be a key priority within the EU. Ursula von der Leyen should be speaking about that day and night.

Coronavirus at the heart of Europe

It has been a crazy day in the financial markets. All of them were deeply in the red. The coronavirus outbreak in Italy is a little bit the straw that broke the camel’s back. Northern Italy is a wealthy region. It is very well connected to the heart of Europe. And that has generated some serious panic. Now, the response must be the opposite. To keep everyone, calm. To show that we have the means to circumscribe the outbreak. It is not an easy task. But that’s the role we expect the political authorities to play. So far, the Italians and their neighbours are playing the appropriate cards. Let’s hope they will keep doing it. If any of them decides to restrict the border crossings that will send a very negative signal to the public opinion.

Italy's immediate challenge

As we start the last week of February, the key issue in our part of the world is the outbreak of coronavirus in Northern Italy. In the last forty-eight hours the number of infected cases has grown fast. About ten towns in the Lombardy and Veneto regions have been placed under quarantine measures. Major events, such as the Venice Carnival, have been cancelled. And, above all, there is no objective information about the way the disease has spread in that part of Italy. That must be investigated as a matter of priority. Besides that, the test for the next twenty-four hours is about the progression of the infections, particularly to see if there are new cases outside the areas that have now been placed under control. Let’s hope that will not be the case.

Italy and its fragile new government

Italy has a new government. Giuseppe Conte has been successful at putting together a coalition of dissimilar personalities. It brings together populists, left wingers, centrists and technocrats. All of them have one thing in common: a profound dislike for Matteo Salvini, the extremist. It is obviously a fragile reason to pull together. But it might work. I am one of those who sees some strength in disparity. This government might want to contradict the naysayers.

Italy must reform soon

Giuseppe Conte is back as head of the new Italian government. Not a very easy task that of chairing a coalition between the 5-Star Movement and the PD (Democratic Party, a social-democrat party). They can stay in power for three years, until the end of the current Parliament. They can also fall apart soon. Nobody knows. What we know is that the new government – Conte II – has many divisive issues to deal with. The country is not in a very good shape, to put it diplomatically. It calls for serious reforms. Those reforms require consensus within the coalition, a very wise approach and lots of political courage. In addition, many people think that Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader, is a better option, that he is the one that can transform Italy. He is not, in my opinion, but what matters is the Italian voters’ views. He will be leading the opposition against this new government. In the end, if Italy does not address its problems – and I have serious doubts it will – Salvini might end up back in power again. And bring with him the image of a strong and resolute man. That would be a game changer. Certainly not a good one, in the end, but it would be too late to stop him.

Salvini will become Trump's man in Europe

The Italian people will decide what next, when called to vote for a new government. That’s how our democracies work. It is however quite clear that one of their potential choices, Matteo Salvini, is an anti-European Union, for reasons he knows better than anybody else. He is also an extremist, fully supported by the most reactionary sectors of the Italian society. Many voters might think that he represents the kind of leadership the country needs. But there are also large sectors of the public opinion that see him as the wrong type of choice, someone that can bring disaster to the country. And that disaster could happen quite soon, it is not just a question of long term.

From a European perspective, if Matteo Salvini becomes Prime Minister that is bad news. He will carry division, xenophobia and ultra-nationalism to the European debate. Consensus building will become even more difficult than it is today. He is the enemy from inside. There is no bigger enemy than the one that lives among us.

He is also the strongest ally of the EU’s outside enemies. Some analysts mention his subordination to Vladimir Putin’s money and interests. That is dangerous enough. Putin’s agenda is to destroy the European unity. But I see an additional peril. He will become President Donald Trump’s agent within the EU, in the Council meetings and every time a key decision that might contradict the American policy is on the table. President Trump is no friend of the EU. If I were asked to prioritise the outside leaders that are hostile to the common project, I would start by referring to his name as number one. And I would add that such antagonism is particularly risky, as it comes from the leader of a country that has very close ties with Europe and a strong presence in some of the EU countries, not to mention that it is the most powerful nation on earth. President Trump and his circle will be making good use of Salvini’s duplicity and radicalism.

These are indeed new challenges. They certainly require a different understanding of the old established practises.

Italy and its political clowns

It would be an exaggeration to say that Italy has become a fragile democracy. The governing coalition might be collapsing tonight or tomorrow, but the State institutions are functioning. The President has the necessary prestige and authority. The judiciary system works. And, in general terms, I think we should recognise that public service is experienced and can be competent, if left alone.

It is the political class that is in deep crisis. It has been like that since Berlusconi´s time, in the 90s. His Forza Italia was a joke, inspired by his own example and megalomania. And it created a lot of additional party clones, as time went on, including the populist 5 Star Movement. It has also opened space to the ultra nationalist movements to flourish. 

In this context, the real challenge is to see the emergence of different type of political leaders. Unfortunately, that seems to be a very remote light, at this stage. 

Libya, Algeria and North Africa

Is there a link between the latest developments in Libya, where the forces supported by the Russians have decided to launch a major offensive against the capital city, Tripoli, and the popular revolt in the streets of Algeria, where a regime close to Moscow could end up by being replaced soon by another one, this time more favourable to the European interests in the region?

North Africa is far from being stable. And, on the other hand, it is a region of great strategic interest for Europe, as well as for a country like Russia. Russia wants to re-establish a strong presence in the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, it is trying to encircle the EU as much as possible, with the key objective of undermining the Union. A strong presence in North Africa would give Moscow a lot of leverage.

EU Parliament and Italy

Yesterday, Giuseppe Conte, the Italian Prime Minister addressed the EU Parliament in Strasbourg.

I do not share some of the views he expressed. However, I would assess his speech as moderate and pro-European.

The Prime Minister talked about immigration – a very central theme for his government but also for the rest of Europe. And about the need to go back to reinforced solidarity among the European States, as well as about defence matters, foreign policy and the EU at the UN. He emphasised that cooperation with North Africa and the Sahel are a priority for his government and invited the EU to be more coherent and proactive towards those two neighbouring regions. But above all, Conte reminded the MEPs that the connection between the EU institutions and the citizens is crucial. Too much emphasis on economic measures without considering the people’s views is wrong, that was basically his opening point and one of the key messages. It’s an opinion that reflects the view that there is a serious gap between the citizens and the elites. We might see that as a populist slogan, but I think it’s important to pay attention to it.

Giuseppe Conte represents a government that is politically distant from the mainstream parties that control most seats in the EU Parliament. Therefore, as many had anticipated, the responses that followed his speech were distinctly negative. The star MEPs focused their critical interventions on some of the recent decisions taken by Conte’s powerful deputies – Matteo Salvini and Luigi di Maio. These are the strong players in Conte’s government. The MEPs gave no truce to Conte on account of those two.

In my opinion, that approach was the wrong one. Conte’s statement was a constructive attempt to build a bridge. His effort should have been recognised. Nevertheless, the MEPs decided to push the Prime Minister into his usual corner, and punch him, instead of offering a helping hand and try to bring him to the centre-ground of the European preoccupations. I judge the MEPs showed little maturity. Once again, they were more concerned with theatrics and sound bites, trying to project a tough public image, than with looking for sensible action.

The Prime Minister must have gone back to Rome with a strengthened impression that key European politicians, in the EU Parliament, do not understand the political realities his country is going through. They prefer to put Italy in the dock.

That's poor political judgement.

Italy's rare birds

To recall one’s ambassador accredited to another State is a major move. A decision that is taken at the highest level of authority. It shows that there is a serious political tension between the governments concerned. France did it today. They recalled their Ambassador to Italy. I can’t recall any similar situation in Western Europe in the last seven decades. This is certainly not good either for both countries or the EU. It takes the EU to a new and unknown type of conflict. And, unfortunately, I do not see who could try to undertake the bridging between Emmanuel Macron and the radical populists that are in charge in Rome. It is also true that one cannot accept the kind of political hostility that is coming these days from Salvini and Di Maio. That must be said in very clear terms. They are an aberration that must be denounced.

Elections money

Elections will take place in a number of EU countries this year. And interestingly enough, we will see those countries actively borrowing in the capital markets. Italy´s government will be number one. They intend to issue public debt bonds totaling € 271 billion. That´s a lot of money, to be paid by future governments and the younger people. France will be number two. They should be in market to borrow over €200 billion. Even Germany, with general elections later in the year, will be looking for fresh money in the financial markets: €160 billion.

The point here is to spend a lot on public goodies to get the voters happy and ready to support those in place. It´s short term politics against long term liabilities.

Renzi´s fall and our worries

Italy has known 63 governments since 1945. That´s a lot of instability during a long period of 70 years. And most likely, the current government, led by Matteo Renzi, will fall after this coming Sunday´s referendum. It´s certainly no good news. Particularly at a time when the Italian banking system and the economy require the support of a strong and stable Cabinet.

In Brussels and in the financial centres of Europe most people believe that there will be no negative impact if Renzi falls and becomes just a caretaker Prime Minister. They have basically in mind the European politics and the markets.

But I think they are a bit short-sighted.

First, there will a very serious impact on the internal politics of Italy. That will give an additional chance to the 5-Star Movement and others, including the racist Lega Nord, to gain additional votes and mess up the domestic politics. Second, the banking system is in a far worst situation than we are prepared to accept. Cabinet needs to have full power to be able to adopt the measures that are required to address the banking crisis. Thirdly, the EU would certainly benefit from a stronger leader in Rome. Renzi has not been able to play an active role in European affairs. If he loses, but stays on, as interim leader, his intervention will be even lighter. If he goes, the new leader will be too busy trying to ground himself in the national politics to have time for Brussels.

For these reasons, one should be worried. 

Libya needs a more coordinated EU assistance

Key countries committed to help Libya to overcome the chaos created in October 2011, when Muammar Kaddafi was overthrown by a Western coalition of countries, met today in Vienna to look for ways of supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) that is now in place in Tripoli. The GNA is led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and has the support of the UN. It´s however facing major difficulties. There are two other rival governments in the Eastern and Central areas of the country as well as dozens of small armed groups all over. The terrorist group Islamic State is also heavily present in a growing number of places.

The EU could play a major role in the stabilisation process. Italy should take the leading coordinating role on the European side. But Italy is very unclear about its own policy approach to Libya. It had suggested it would deploy Italian troops under the UN banner. Now, the government in Rome says it is not prepared to go that way. Fine. But at least they could bring together the EU States and advocate for a common political position. That´s very much needed as France, the UK and others are on their own in the country and working with separate armed groups and factions. Such actions do contribute to add further confusion in Libya. There is therefore room for fighting for a unified EU position. Why is Italy so hesitant? 

Economic migrations

The immigration issue remains at the top of the EU agenda. Every day brings new flows of people into Italy, Greece and elsewhere.

 Many of these migrants come from countries in deep national crisis. From a legal point of view, they are bona fide candidates to be accepted as refugees.

Some others are coming for obvious economic reasons, as they try to run away from poverty and find jobs in Europe. This category should be confronted with greater hurdles to get through the legal process. But there is a growing view that poverty might also be a good reason to be recognised as a candidate to obtain a legal status, particularly if you have taken so many risks to get into the EU.

This is of course a matter that needs to be discussed. A common approach needs to be agreed as far as these economic migrants are concerned. It is urgent, it should be shared by all the Sates in the EU, and it should also be clearly explained to the European citizens.

The leaders cannot give the impression that there is no policy, that there is no clear idea about the issue. And that´s is, at present, the image that prevails.

Immigration: a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility

The numbers keep adding every day. They also make it obvious that there is no European strategy to deal with the migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea. The navy ships do their job, rescue the poor souls at sea and bring them to the shores. And after that, there is an empty policy space – a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility – with everybody else hoping the Italians will take care of the immense problem. 

Dying at sea, but invisible in the political capitals

Scores of desperate people drowned today at sea, when trying to cross the Mediterranean and enter the EU illegally. This is a recurrent drama that hardly gets the attention of the European public opinion. It´s no longer news, in many ways. And because it is not in the headlines any more, there is no real political attention that is given to the matter. Mass illegal immigration across the Mediterranean Sea, a daily occurrence, and the human tragedies associated with it, has become politically invisible. It is a major problem, it would require a clear-cut approach, but our leaders feel content the question is not burning on their desks.

That´s the way leadership is practised at present in our corner of the Earth.  

Illegal crossings and poor politics

The illegal crossing of the Mediterranean Sea by hundreds of African migrants is a daily occurrence. They sail off the Libyan coast and try to reach the Italian territory. But they have disappeared from the news. If one tries to read about these dramatic movements in any of the major European papers one just gets nowhere. The matter is being ignored anywhere outside Italy. And it has also disappeared from the discussions in the the EU fora. The issue, which is of course a common concern, is seen as an Italian matter. And then the Italians just let the migrants loose, in the hope they will move North and out of the country. Many of them will find indeed their way into the Calais area, in Northern France, just waiting for a chance to cross into the UK. Others will move into other EU countries. The issue is plainly out of control, all over the place, from the islands in Southern Italy to Brussels, London, Paris and elsewhere. Nobody cares. It is not in the news therefore does not exist...politically.