Monday, 2 February 2026

The UN Pact for the Future

 

The UN Pact for the Future was adopted in September 2024.


The Five Core Pillars 

The Pact is organized into five "tracks," each containing specific actions to move from rhetoric to implementation:

  1. Sustainable Development & Financing: A radical push to reform the "International Financial Architecture." It aims to give the Global South a greater voice in the IMF and World Bank and to close the $4 trillion annual investment gap for development.

  2. International Peace & Security: A commitment to revitalize the UN’s role in conflict prevention. Crucially, it includes the most significant language on Security Council Reform in decades, specifically prioritizing the under-representation of Africa.

  3. Science, Technology, and Innovation: Ensuring that the benefits of tech are shared globally. It addresses the "digital divide" and sets the stage for the first global standards on emerging risks like lethal autonomous weapons.

  4. Youth & Future Generations: Transitioning from "short-termism" to "long-termism." It establishes a dedicated Declaration on Future Generations to ensure that current political decisions account for those not yet born.

  5. Transforming Global Governance: The overarching goal is to make the UN "fit for purpose"—more inclusive of civil society, regional authorities, and the private sector.

Saturday, 31 January 2026

Additional note about the Munich Security Conference 2026

The debates in Munich must transcend the false choice between a cold, calculated "realism" and a detached idealism. 

True statesmanship today requires a principled realism: an understanding that while power dictates the limits of the possible, it is values that define the worth of the pursuit. We must acknowledge the "brute reality" of modern coercion, not to surrender to it, but to construct a new international equilibrium where the rule of law is not a mere suggestion, but the very foundation of stability. 

If the "fragmented kaleidoscope" of the West is to hold, it must prove that a coalition of free nations can be as strategically disciplined as any autocracy, yet remains anchored in the belief that the ultimate measure of any global order is the security and agency of the individual.

Security in Munich 2026: a complex debate

The Munich Security Conference is set to take place from the 13th to the 15th of February. It remains a watershed moment in global political discourse; one need only recall the fractious intervention of the American Vice President, JD Vance, at last year’s gathering to grasp the weight of the meeting.

We find ourselves now in an even more precarious phase. As the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, remarked recently in Davos, we are in a state of "permanent rupture"—an era of "brute reality" where Great Powers wield trade and force as instruments of coercion. He is, in large measure, correct. Indeed, his observation is one I have touched upon in recent writings.

I must reiterate, however, that we cannot permit ourselves to be overcome by pessimism, nor by the irrationality and violence of autocrats. To fold one's arms is no solution. The world is not fated to be ruled by narcissists, dictators, or the deranged. Mahatma Gandhi once reminded us that there have always been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they may seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall—always.

The speeches to be delivered in Munich are currently being drafted. It seems to me, therefore, an opportune moment to share a series of thoughts on themes I consider paramount.

I shall begin by quoting Kofi Annan, with whom I worked for several years: "Our mission is to place the human being at the centre of everything we do. No wall is high enough to keep out global problems, and no country is strong enough to solve them alone." Long before him, Martin Luther King Jr. observed that we are "caught in an inescapable network of mutuality" that ensnares us all.

The messages of both men are plain to understand: either we commit to solidarity between peoples, or our societies and the planet, as we know them, can only draw closer to the abyss.

I observe with concern the apologia for "useful subordination," which some term political realism. This so-called realism, to which the Great Powers seek to subjugate us—and which certain theorists and leaders champion—must be regarded as a perilous anachronism. It is a sort of "survival guide" that, under the guise of accepting force as the defining factor in international relations, proposes the abandonment of universal principles in exchange for an illusory stability. This political vision being sold to us stems from the exhausted and dangerous premise of accepting "spheres of influence." In other words, they draw inspiration from the suzerainties and vassalages of yore, claiming them to be the best means of ensuring peace. There must be those in Munich prepared to dismantle this fallacy.

The true strength of a State does not reside solely in its military arsenal. It rests equally upon its legitimacy and the courage of its people. To invest in an atmosphere of fear is the preferred pursuit of dictators and populists. When we allow them to wield that weapon, we march toward perdition. This is happening even amongst us. A climate of dread is developing in Europe. The paralysis engendered by fear is the true weakness of a nation. It is vital that it be said in Munich: we are ready to overcome this terror, from wherever it may come. Audacity, anchored in values, is the answer.

Ukraine serves as a testament to this. Her people know it well. Ukrainian resistance is an act of moral courage proving that a people of free spirit is invincible, even when confronted by an imperial philosophy that views the world through a nineteenth-century lens. Zelensky’s address in Davos was a plea for reflection, though it was somewhat eclipsed by Carney’s speech. Zelensky openly criticised Europe, describing it as a "fragmented kaleidoscope of small and medium powers"—hesitant, dependent on the United States, and lost in internal squabbles while Russian aggression persists and Putin’s oil flows freely along European coasts. He proposed that this oil be seized and the proceeds used to fund the legitimate defence of Ukraine and, by extension, our continent.

It is true that the financial assistance provided to Ukraine by the EU since the illegal Russian invasion of 2022 already exceeds 193 billion euros—a considerable sum, surpassing even that of the Americans. Zelensky may, perhaps, have gone too far in his rhetoric. He did, however, have the merit of underlining that without fierce determination, financial means (including those necessary to procure arms), imagination, and political steadfastness, it will be impossible to withstand Russia’s unjustifiable violence.

It would be well for Zelensky to deliver a similar speech in Munich, but to replace criticisms with proposals. And democratic Europe must respond by showing it grasps the danger that the intentions of Putin—and others—represent. The hybrid war against Europe is already underway; and while the greatest threat emerges from the East, we must not lose sight of threats arriving from other quarters.

All of this reminds us that national sovereignty is an inalienable right which we have a responsibility to protect. This is enshrined in the world's commitment to the Charter of the United Nations. Munich must underscore this, while simultaneously placing the reform of the United Nations on the agenda. This is among the most urgent priorities on the international stage. Those countries that cherish the rule of law, the equality of rights between all States, and peace, have here a standard around which to rally. And a priority.


Friday, 23 January 2026

Europe and its autonomy

Europe Must Depart the Labyrinth and Establish its Autonomy

by Victor Ângelo


Europe can no longer afford the luxury of hesitation upon the international stage—most especially now, as the global landscape increasingly resembles a field of forces set upon a collision course. For too long, we have permitted our strategic vision to be held captive by two obsessions: a credulous subordination to the patronage of the United States, and a lingering dread of a destructive avalanche from the Russian quarter. In both instances, Europe has suffered a diminishment of its sovereignty and its standing. Our paramount duty is to reclaim them.

We exist today amidst hostilites emanating from various quarters. It is imperative that we confront them. The external strength and the reputation of the European Union are but a direct reflection of our internal cohesion. In these times, it is essential to accord respect to others, to advocate for equilibrium, and yet, at once, to project power. Internal cohesion is, therefore, in my judgment, the foremost concern.

To achieve this, we must bolster European complementarity through decisive measures: firstly, by the harmonisation of our principal policy dimensions, thereby ensuring that internal fragmentation is not exploited by external competition; secondly, by fortifying our democratic resilience against disinformation, establishing an effective protocol to counter hybrid threats and the falsehoods intended to fracture our societies; and thirdly, by massive investment in integrated infrastructures—both in energy and the digital realm—to ensure that no Member State remains a vulnerable target for the blackmail of third parties.

A Europe that is not solid at its core can never truly be sovereign at its frontiers, nor can it exert significant geopolitical influence. This necessitates the strengthening of our common identity—whilst respecting our cultural and national diversities—and the active engagement of our citizens and their representative institutions.

By "sovereign independence," we do not imply a defensive isolationism, but rather the capacity to assert and defend our strategic interests. We speak of a multidimensional sovereignty: energetic, technological, cultural, political, and military. To be sovereign is to ensure that the decrees of Brussels and elsewhere reflect our common priorities, and that our partners are chosen upon the basis of reciprocity, never of submission.

We must not overlook China, which occupies the very heart of the super-powers. Our relationship with China demands a realism unburdened by naivety. Our course must be charted in Brussels. The objective is the reduction of risk, though without a rupture, protecting strategic sectors and ensuring that relations are governed by mutually accepted rules.

Simultaneously, sovereignty is won by engaging with all. It is imperative that Europe, as a singular whole, speaks with Moscow as much as it does with others. To maintain open channels with the Kremlin is not a demonstration of weakness, but a realist acknowledgement of our geographic circumstance. A productive dialogue with the Kremlin is, at present, well-nigh impossible. To Don Quixote, it would be akin to inviting a serpent to one’s table and naming it diplomacy. Nevertheless, I believe that democratic Europe, in its entirety, must attempt a dialogue. Russia, under its current leadership, has been transformed into an ill neighbour; it inspires no confidence—rather the reverse—yet it dwells at our very doorstep. The first step must be to demonstrate to Moscow that the prolongation of its aggression against Ukraine leads to the ruin of all, Russia most of all. Sun Tzu, in his celebrated work The Art of War, observed that "there is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." When victory is not swift and decisive, the wisest course for the aggressor is withdrawal.

Within this new architecture, NATO must transcend its one-way dependency. Aligning with the vision that Mark Rutte has brought to the Alliance at the commencement of his tenure, Europe must strive to construct a European pillar of defence that is operationally autonomous. As the Secretary-General has reiterated: "European security cannot continue to be an imported commodity." To reform NATO is to ensure that Europe assumes primary responsibility for the stability of our own continent.

In the wake of Davos 2026 and the forthcoming Munich Conference, and within the process of the United Nations' reorganisation (UN80), Europe must assert itself as the architect of a reinvigorated and effective multilateralism. The message must be plain and direct: we must restore trust between States. In the reform of the UN—which is now more urgent than ever—Europe must lead the transition toward a system that reflects contemporary reality, advocating for an expanded Security Council wherein the voice of the Global South and regional powers is institutionalised, and the power of veto ceases to be an instrument of paralysis.

This effort toward multilateral reform is currently imperilled by transactional and exclusionary proposals, such as the extraordinary "Board of Peace" suggested by the United States administration. This proposal, which seeks to replace collective diplomacy with a directory at the service of the personal interests of Donald J. Trump, constitutes an unacceptable ambition. By attempting to circumvent international institutions, the "Board of Peace" seeks to impose a mercantilist order, founded upon a vast ego and a nineteenth-century concept of empire that disregards the rights and sovereignty of States. In a word, it is an aberration.

The stability and geopolitical influence of Europe shall not spring from arms alone, nor from the modernity of our economies. They shall result, also, from our capacity to stand shoulder to shoulder at every level with those who wish to subjugate us, from the moral force we bring to the defence of universal values, and from the bridges we choose to build with democratic regimes across every region of the globe.


Wednesday, 21 January 2026

Machiavelli writes to Vladimir Putin about Ukraine

 To: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Kremlin, Moscow


From: Niccolò Machiavelli, Secretary to the Second Chancery of the Republic of Florence

Date: 21 January 2026



Subject: On the Necessity of Outcome and the Perils of Protraction

Sir,

I observe your current enterprise from the cold detachment that only history and the study of human nature can provide. You have embarked upon a course that I once described as the most dangerous for any Prince: the attempt to alter a state by force without the means to secure it swiftly.

Permit me to offer a few observations on the verità effettuale—the effective truth—of your situation.

On the Mismanagement of Cruelty

In my writings, I argued that injuries should be done all at once, so that being felt less, they offend less. 

You, sir, have committed the strategic sin of a "slow cruelty." By allowing this conflict to endure since 2022, you have not inspired the "salutary fear" that secures a conquest; instead, you have cultivated a "persistent hatred" that fuels an inexhaustible resistance. 

A Prince may be feared, but he must avoid being hated, for the hatred of a people is a fortress that no artillery can breach.

On the Danger of Auxiliaries and the Union of Rivals

You have achieved what few thought possible: you have given your enemies a reason for Virtù. By threatening the safety of the European states, you have forced them to abandon their habitual indecision. 

They are now seeking their own "arms"—as Victor Ângelo and others suggest—to no longer depend on the "auxiliary forces" of Washington. You have inadvertently acted as the architect of your rival’s unity. A wise Prince seeks to keep his neighbors divided; you have forged them into a hammer.

On Fortune and the People

You have relied heavily on the Fortuna of winter, energy, and political shifts in the West. But Fortune is a woman, and if you wish to master her, you must conquer her by force and audacity, not by waiting for her to change her mind. 

You assumed the people of the Ukraine would be "spectators" to their own subjugation. You forgot that a people who have tasted even a shadow of liberty will never rest until they regain it. Their memory of freedom is longer than your memory of empire.

The Recommendation of the Fox

Sir, the lion alone cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox alone cannot defend himself from wolves. 

You are currently trapped. If victory is not rapid and decisive, as I have always maintained, the Prince must find a way to "withdraw with dignity" or "reframe the outcome" as a triumph before the state’s treasury and the people's patience are entirely consumed.

Sun Tzu, a man of the East whom I have come to respect in this realm of shades, rightly notes that no nation benefits from prolonged war. 

If you cannot be a Lion that destroys, you must be the Fox that negotiates a peace that looks like a victory. To continue as you are is not strength; it is a lack of Cervello—of brains.

In the end, history does not judge the "justice" of your cause, but the "stability" of your result. At present, you are producing only ruin.

I remain, your cold and watchful servant,

Niccolò Machiavelli



Sunday, 18 January 2026

The role of the European Union as the creator of a new international paradigm

BRIEFING NOTE


DATE: 18 January 2026


SUBJECT: Strategic Diversification: Beyond Mercosur—A New Map for European Resilience


1. CONTEXT: THE "POST-ISOLATION" DOCTRINE

The formal signing of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement yesterday in Asunción (17 January 2026) marks the cornerstone of a broader strategic shift. Amidst increasing trade tensions and the suspension of the EU-US framework, the Union is successfully executing a "Post-Isolation" doctrine. This involves establishing a network of resilient supply chains that insulate the Single Market from geopolitical blackmail.

2. BEYOND MERCOSUR: THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL NETWORK

The Mercosur deal is the flagship, but it is supported by a rapid succession of high-value agreements concluded or modernized in the 2024–2026 cycle:

A. The Indo-Pacific Pivot (Security & Technology)

  • India (Finalization Stage): Negotiations are currently in their final week. The EU-India Trade and Investment Agreement is scheduled for signing on 27 January 2026 in New Delhi. This is the largest trade deal in India's history and secures European access to the world’s most populous market.

  • Indonesia (Ratification Phase): Following the conclusion of negotiations in late 2025, the EU-Indonesia CEPA is moving toward ratification. It provides near-total tariff liberalization and secures critical minerals for the European Green Deal.

  • Thailand (Active Relaunch): Following the January 2026 Civil Society Dialogue in Brussels, negotiations have accelerated to counter-balance regional dependencies.

B. The Southern Hemisphere & Africa (Sustainability & Raw Materials)

  • Chile (Advanced Framework Agreement): Having entered into force in 2025, the modernised agreement is now fully operational, securing 99.9% tariff-free trade and privileged access to the lithium and copper "Lithium Triangle."

  • Kenya (Economic Partnership): This agreement, now in the implementation phase, serves as our primary template for sustainable trade with Africa, focusing on green hydrogen and digital governance.

  • New Zealand (Implementation): Fully in force since May 2024, this remains our "Gold Standard" for enforceable sustainability and labor chapters.

C. The Trans-Pacific Dialogue

  • CPTPP Engagement: Commissioner Šefčovič recently launched the EU-CPTPP Trade and Investment Dialogue in Australia. This signals our intent to align with the 12-nation Trans-Pacific bloc, ensuring Europe is not sidelined by a "Pacific-centric" order.


3. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: THE "WEIGHT OF THE WORLD"

European current trade trajectory creates a Strategic Diversification Effect that directly counters Eurasian nihilism:

RegionStrategic FunctionStatus (Jan 2026)
MercosurAgriculture & Energy SecuritySigned (17 Jan 2026)
IndiaDigital Integration & Supply ChainSigning (27 Jan 2026)
IndonesiaCritical Raw Materials (Nickel/Copper)Finalized / Ratifying
ChileGreen Transition (Lithium)Fully Operational
US(Critical Warning)Suspended/Negotiation Pause

4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE COMMISSION PRESIDENT

  1. Weaponize Stability: At the upcoming Davos summit, frame these agreements as a "Coalition of the Reliable." Contrast the Union's consistency with the erratic, tariff-based behavior of other major powers.

  2. Institutionalize the South: Use the UN80 framework to invite our new trade partners (Brazil, India, Indonesia) into a "Council of Strategic Partners." This transforms trade leverage into permanent diplomatic support.

  3. Accelerate "Minilateralism": In sectors where WTO consensus remains paralyzed, utilize these bilateral agreements to set global standards on AI, Carbon Border Adjustments (CBAM), and labor rights.

5. FINAL ASSESSMENT

The Union is no longer a "civilian power" reacting to crises; it is an Architect of Alternatives. By diversifying away from volatile theaters and securing the "Global South" via Mercosur, India, and ASEAN, the Union has effectively nullified the threat of economic isolation.



Victor Ângelo