Supporting the Vienna process on Syria

A week ago, I criticised the conveners of the Vienna meeting on Syria for not inviting the UN and EU. Now, after today´s new round of discussions in Vienna, I should commend the US and Russia for bringing to the room not only the UN and the EU, but also the other countries that can have an impact on the solution of the long lasting civil war. It was particularly important to have Iran in the conversation.

This basically means that for the first time, after so many years of destruction and human pain, there is a bit of hope for the Syrians. The road ahead is still very difficult. But at least the diplomacy is now seriously trying to initiate a peace process.

The next step is to find a way of bringing in the Syrian representatives themselves. I am confident that it should be possible, if all those who met in Vienna today do their honest part of the bargain.

It is also critically important to intensify the destruction of the Islamic State leadership and power structures. For that to happen, one has to be very frank and have the courage to denounce any double game that might occur in the future. We cannot accept a country sits in Vienna and talks about the future of a peaceful Syria and, at the same time, keeps somehow supporting the terrorists.

Fighting for democracy in Turkey

It requires a lot of courage to be an active democratic opponent of President Erdogan of Turkey. I certainly admire those who in Parliament, in the media and on the streets, through their participation in rallies for democratic rule, dare to express their views. The risks are high. They call for a lot of bravery. 

Restoring hope

People want to feel safe. At home, on the streets and also in their jobs. Times of uncertainty, as we have today in many parts of the world, including in our more developed societies, make people feel fragile and vulnerable. They open the door, if not properly addressed, to all kinds of extremism.

The political discourse has to pay greater attention to these matters. Leaders need to reassure. And they should think again about the role of the State and its institutions, the value of predictability, stability and compromise, and keep in mind that younger generations require special attention. The future is always build on the conviction of progress for new wave, the newcomers. The future will be sombre if the youth believe they will be worst off, that they are the ones who will pay for the follies and the lack of values of today.

In the current circumstances, to restore hope to the young people is a major challenge the political leaders ignore at the peril of everyone. We cannot accept that type of political blindness. 

Weakening Donald Tusk

By and large, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has measured up to his Brussels job. At a time of great challenges, he has been able to respond much better than initially expected. He has shown leadership and prudence. And that is certainly good news for Europe at a time of great political fragility and uncertainty.  

Now, the outcome of his native Poland´s general elections has brought a bigger problem to him. He has lost the support of his government as the new boys and girls in Warsaw are far from being his political buddies.  Without such backing, in his home country, his presidency job in the Council will be based on a much weaker foundation and becomes much more difficult to perform.

That´s bad news for him and also for the EU.  

No good news from the Polish front

Poland has moved to the very conservative side of its political spectrum. The populist and pretty nationalist Law and Justice won today´s elections. They have a comfortable majority. They will make good use of it to promote a traditional approach to politics and to social values.

This is no good news for the repair work that needs to be done in order to strengthen the EU. The Law and Justice leaders are not great supporters of a stronger EU. They will be adding new challenges to those who believe, in Brussels and throughout Europe, that greater harmonization of policies is the way forward.

Celebrating the United Nations and the entire UN System

Time to celebrate the UN and its 70 years of efforts in favour of peace, human rights, development and international cooperation, including in the areas of environment and protection of the world´s heritage.

Time to be positive and commit oneself to a more effective organization, a complex one for that matter but able to perform in the midst of so many national interests and contradictions. 

Syria: calling for a renewed diplomatic effort

John Kerry, the US State Secretary, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister met today in Vienna with their counterparts from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The meeting was about the Syrian conflict and how to get it resolved, after almost five years of civil war and unimaginable suffering.

These four people represent countries that can play an important role in bringing peace back to Syria. Their countries are not the only ones that matter but in many ways they play a major role in the region and can for sure markedly influence the course of events. It is therefore encouraging to see them around the same table. And they should continue the consultations, even if their interests are very distinct, as it is time to see an end to the Syrian tragedy.

I have also noted that the EU was not part of the discussion. It should. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini, has to claim a seat around this table. The EU´s potential role both during the peace negotiations and the reconstruction of Syria cannot be ignored.

The UN has also been side-lined. The Special Envoy of the Secretary-General, Staffan de Mistura, has disappeared from the radar. That needs to be changed immediately. The UN´s participation is critical for the credibility of the Secretary-General and to augment the legitimacy of the current efforts. Here, as in the case of the EU, there is a need to be strong and call for recognition.

The Chinese move to London

The Chinese President´s official visit to the United Kingdom has not received a lot of attention in the European media. This is rather surprising. The visit is significant for a number of reasons that go beyond its obvious impact on the UK´s economy. 

Let´s mention some of them. The visit has substantially strengthened the Chinese political and economic interests in Europe, making the UK the preferred launching pad for further Chinese investments in the EU. It has also shown that Beijing believes the UK will remain within the EU. And it is tying the UK´s foreign policy to the Chinese ambitions.

It is true that both countries gain from the closer relationship. However, with time, this is above all a very strategic move by President Xi Jinping. He comes out of it stronger, abroad and at home. 

The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.

Again on leadership

Principles, young man, principles! That´s the secret of good leadership. And if you cannot find the right principle to justify your decisions, then be creative and come up with a new one. Just be clear and very firm when stating that new principle. Ambiguity is not accepted. Ambiguity is good in matters of philosophy and poetry but not in matters of leadership. People want to understand your reasons. You have to be clear. Then, you are a leader. 

What do you mean when you say the Left?

After a very long journey, I just have a question: what does it mean to be a political progressive leader today? Said differently, what is it we should call the Left? What defines it? 

Time to focus on Angola´s democratization

Angola does not attract a lot of media attention. It is an important country in its part of the world, because of its size, wealth and military power. But is also a very poor example in terms of democratic rule and even worst, if we look at governance and accountability issues. 

It is a rich country with plenty of poverty. And it is a country that locks up people as soon as they express any type of opposition to the ruling class. 

That´s the case with 15 grassroots individuals that have been in jail for about three months for the simple reason they organised a public demonstration to call for more democracy and human rights. They are now under the very serious charge of treason and threats against the constitutional order –“coup d´état attempt”-, as accused by the government. It is a farce, a travesty of rule of law.

It is time to talk about it. As it is time to call for democratic change in the country.

Late thoughts

In democratic politics, success is about votes. The more you get the more successful you are. There is no other measure as it is very difficult to assess the theoretical merit of ideas and political proposals. Therefore, if you get involved in politics you should aim at getting as much support as possible. There is no other way out.

I might disagree with your approaches to public matters. But you get more votes than I, I have to accept that you are in charge. Being in charge does not mean however that you are right. It means you have been able to bring on board, to your side, a good number of people. And that is the basis of political legitimacy. And it gives you the authority to be in charge. 

Portugal: are we moving to the far left?

The Portuguese voted on 4 October for a new parliament. No party got a majority vote. There is a need for a coalition government to ensure stability. And the movement seems to be in the direction of a left of the left alliance, under the leadership of the Socialist Party. If it happens, it will be the first of its kind since 1975. And it would be a major shift in the national politics of the country. 

Trident Juncture 2015

I am just back from NATO exercise Trident Juncture 2015.

I have been involved in it for the last 18 months or so. It has been a long process, with different phases of the scenario and the “response” of the international community.

The points here are the following: first, the “crisis” takes place far away from Europe, in an imaginary region to the South of our Continent; second, it is a “crisis response exercise” that follows a model requiring the approval of the UN Security Council; third, it is therefore clear that the exercise is not about defending the Alliance, it is not about collective defence, a concept that is well known; it is about helping a fictional country to address an aggression coming from a neighbouring state; fourth, it is not directly related to the current tensions in Europe or in the Middle East; it was planned well before President Putin´s new posture; and fifth, it was about training the commanders in the context of complex civilian environment.

My role was to play the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-general. It was about sharing many years of UN senior experience. And it is rewarding to see the interest it raised. 

Learning from Putin

During the last many days I have been fully taken by a major military exercise. As a civilian and someone who has a very good number of years on the shoulders, the exercise leaves me a bit worn out, by the end of the day. But it is interesting to see how the top officers respond to a complete set of new challenges that in the world of today go far beyond just military means.

The military campaigns have changed and today´s world calls for a different approach to operational design. Plans have to be complex and combine a good number of actions, many of them within the civilian realm.

In many ways, Putin is one of those political leaders that fully understands the new ways of waging “war”. To pay detailed attention to his modus operandi gives us a chance to learn a few techniques that make sense.

The only problem is that we might learn some methods from him but cannot agree on his approach to international relations. 

After hours in Zaragosa

I took a long walk this evening. It was a pleasure to wander in the main avenues of Zaragoza, in Eastern Spain, and see so many locals just strolling around in a relaxed manner, enjoying the weather, the end of the day and the serenity of the place. Zaragoza is a large city but it keeps a strong human dimension and it is pretty affordable. That makes it, like many other cities in Spain, very attractive and relaxing. 

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…