Poor leadership

In the last days, in different meetings, I was told twice by senior officers and seasoned civil servants that the current crop of Western leaders do not listen to advice. They tend to have pre-conceived responses to key issues and therefore opt for directing their subordinates, without listening their views, without taking into account their experience. This creates a lot of frustration in the senior levels of the public service. It is also a contributing factor to the poor commitment we find in many civil administrations. 

UK on the way out of the EU

I am getting the impression that in Brussels many think that the UK´s exit from the EU is just a matter of time. Prime Minister Cameron has opened a Pandora box. He and the rest of the existing political leadership seem too weak, too uncharismatic to be able to stop the slide in the public opinion. It will be an uphill struggle to change the trend. The genie will not jump back into the bottle.  

Ukraine´s window of opportunity is now

I sense there is a little but encouraging window of opportunity to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine. Tomorrow´s meetings in Vienna, where President Putin has arrived today, could offer a chance for a peace road map. I think that the Swiss have been particularly active in trying to bring Putin and the other parties together, including the new Head of State of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. The Swiss Confederation President, Didier Burkhalter, has also travelled to Vienna this morning. His discussions with the Russian leader tomorrow are something that should be carefully watched. 

Iraq and the great divide

The Iraqi crisis reminds us of how difficult it is to assist a country that is deeply divided along ethnic and cultural lines. The fracture line between Sunnis and Shias cuts the country in two. This is a very high risk divide. It needs to be managed with great balance. Leaders from both sides of the line have to be brought together all the time. Our role, as international community, is to encourage them to cooperate, to help them to build the platforms that bring their interests together, to underline the common ground and look into the future from there.

In many ways, the experience tells us that to intervene in countries that are at the frontier of great divides is not a very easy thing. The best solution is to stay out, as much as possible. If that is not advisable, then the international community must act in a very well informed way, with great prudence and a strong sense of the risks.

That´s true in Iraq as it is also true in Sudan, Mali or Chad, in the Balkans, or any other country that has national communities that are very different, both from a physical point of view and from a religious or cultural perspective. These are countries with a very high risk of falling into major internal conflicts. Outside interventions that are just naive and ill prepared can only accelerate the hatching of the crisis. 

Iraq: a very complex and grave situation

The gravity of the situation in Iraq cannot be underestimated. As one should not be blind to the very serious impact it can have in the entire region. President Obama´s approach, as outlined today, is a prudent one. It requires however a greater degree of coordination with the key States in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, it cannot be enhanced by any type of EU action as Europe has lost its capacity to play a critical military role in the region, particularly in the context of a very violent and complex crisis. 

No time to hesitate: ISIS needs to be crushed

Let´s agree that any move that helps to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as ISIS, is deeply appreciated. It should be taken without delay. But let´s also be clear that things have already gone too far and ISIS has taken too much power and influence. It has become more difficult to thrash them. They have gained a very serious impetus thanks to our inability to foresee and take quick action. And now the more we wait the more we will have to deal with them for a very long period of time. We should understand that there is no more space for hesitation. 

Kenya faces major security challenges

One of my colleagues at the UN, a man from a Nordic country, decided to retire by the Kenyan coast, not far from Mombasa. That decision was taken more than 10 years ago. The place was quiet and the weather much nicer than around the Baltic Sea. 

I thought of him and his wife today. The news coming from that part of Africa have not been good. And they have further deteriorated in the last couple of days. People have been massacred by extremists, others have been kidnapped. And above all, the national government seems too weak to be able to tackle the security challenges.

The dangerous situation shows once more that terrorism can spread fast if not properly contained. The chaos that prevails in Somalia, just to the North of Kenya, is a major menace to entire region. And of all the neighbouring countries, Kenya is the most exposed to the expansion of the Somali anarchy. 

An archipelago of collapsing States

There is now an “archipelago of collapse” that goes from Mali to Iraq, through Libya, Egypt and Syria. It´s like an oil slick that tends to expand South, through the Sahel and towards Central Africa, and also to keep moving to the East, to Afghanistan and Pakistan. These “archipelago of collapsing States” is about the failure of proper governance in each one of the countries concerned. But it is also, more and more, an indication that the international community, in particular the Security Council and other key international players, need to think again about their role. Their contribution to international human rights, peace, human security and stability is facing very serious challenges. It has to be thought through again. Intervention? What kind of intervention? How to prevent collapse? How to keep different communities together under the same national flag? What is the responsibility of the international community? What are the lessons learned in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere?

This is a debate that is getting more and more urgent. But who is ready to take the lead in the discussion?

Disconnected

If you want to momentarily forget the world and all its catastrophic or less tragic challenges, just spend the day in a small beach village like De Haan, on the Belgian coast. I did it and I realised, once again, how easy is to ignore the outside world when everything around you is orderly and predicable, the houses are Belle Époque and the people on the streets are just enjoying the quiet and the beauty of the place.

Then, if you put a sunny day on top of it, you are indeed disconnected.

One should be able to disconnect once in a while. In addition to everything else, it gives us a chance to realise how lucky one is because peace, liberty and security have no price. They remain, here, and elsewhere, in Iraq, Ukraine, in the conflict zones and in countries in economic crisis, the ultimate goal for everyone.

And that we should not fail to recall even in a pretty village. 

Cameron´s strange bedfellows

Friday, 13th June, has not been a very auspicious day for David Cameron. His party has now as fellow parties within the same EU Parliamentary group the likes of the Danish People´s Party, the True Finns and, of all, the German movement that Angela Merkel loves to hate: Alternative für Deutschland, an assembly of anti-euro extremists that the Chancellor considers a serious danger for Germany´s interests in the EU.

It is a very shameful collection of radical right-wingers. Their association with Cameron´s fellows makes Cameron´s position within the EU even more precarious. 

Keep the eyes on the ball

The Football World Cup started today in São Paulo. The TV screens will be full of soccer news during the next few weeks. At a time when the crises in South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Ukraine, Iraq, Pakistan and other places keep deepening, people´s attention will be busy and focused on the ball. As they say, keep the eyes on the ball, we will take care of the rest…

Iraq: The Western allies have forgotten the country

The Iraqi situation is deteriorating faster than we had thought yesterday. Today, the Islamists managed to advance further towards the capital city. The armed forces have been able to fight a few battles, here and there, but they seem to lack proper leadership. And the country´s political leaders are now collecting the results of a very divisive governance.

On top of this, the key Western allies of Iraq, those who were quite fast at moving in in 2003, seem to be in another planet. There has been little movement, in the last few days, to try to get the West together in support of a country that has been, in the recent past, so much present in our political agenda.  

Iraq should urgently seize the Security Council

Iraq is again in deep trouble. The radical combatants of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS) are a very serious menace for peace and stability in the country. Their taking control of Mossul is a very serious indication that the Iraqi armed forces are not prepared to respond to the challenge. It is true that Mossul has always been an unstable city in a restless province. But today´s take over by the extremists of ISIS marks a new stage in a rapidly deteriorating situation.

The government needs external support to effectively stop the ISIS progression towards other regions and in the direction of Bagdad. They should take that request for support to the Security Council without any further delay. 

The European social-democrats are getting me confused

Is the European democratic socialism in crisis?

That was today´s question in a small group that met to discuss what next for the social-democrat movements in Europe. And I have to add that the debate was not very conclusive. To start with, it is getting more and more difficult to make a difference between the left wingers and their opposite parties of the centre right. Then, there are those who place greater emphasis on behavioural matters, such as the gay and lesbian issues, and others that keep the focus on the economy, job creation and equality matters. But you find people from both the right and the left saying the same things about these issues. And one gets confused then.  

Chaos as usual in the CAR

The Central African Republic has disappeared from the news. But the internal situation in the country is as chaotic and violent as it has been in the recent past. Lawlessness is the rule, ethnic cleansing is the daily reality. The international community´s response remains insufficient and unfocused. The UN presence is struggling to cope with the humanitarian challenges but lacks political strategy and a clear sense of direction.  

Summits are crucial for crisis resolutions.

Today´s top level meetings at the D-Day commemorations have shown, once again, that summits matter. Leaders that meet regularly and know each other are in a better position to sort out big issues when a threatening crisis occurs. It is not enough to have the Foreign Ministers around the table. They are, at the end of the day, more radical than their masters. The critical step is to get the political bosses to sit together and talk the issues through. 

Draghi´s measures should have a positive impact

I fully support the measures taken today by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. It´s far too early to talk about their impact, even less about the results. But they are bold decisions. They are a very serious attempt to revive the EU economies, to facilitate access to productive credit and also put a stop to the strengthening of the euro currency. The only problem is that the financial markets are very volatile, they have their own logic, and, in many cases, they are only interested in the short term. And they move trillions of resources on a daily basis. However, there is money out there that is looking for a more predicable economic environment and that is ready to invest long term. Let´s see if they get additional incentives to invest on productive and job generating activities now that Draghi has adopted a more proactive approach. 

Our attention lost sight of the Boko Haram girls

Boko Haram is still very much alive and kicking. They keep attacking civilians in Northeast Nigeria and making sure everybody understands that the federal government is just composed of a bunch of inept political opportunists. The school girls are yet to be freed. And the international security teams that came to help are now realising that corruption within the armed forces of Nigeria is a major handicap. A few generals have now been accused of selling weapons to the armed extremists. But that´s not enough to turn things around. And the world has lost sight of the girls and the extremism and moved its attention elsewhere. 

G7 in Brussels, a messy affair

Tomorrow Brussels will be hosting the G7 Summit. This was actually supposed to be a G8 thing. But the relations with the Russians being what they are now, we will only have seven of them in the room. The Russian ghost will however be there as well. That might be the main phantom. There will some others in the air: the banking and commercial tensions between Europe and the US, the lacklustre commitment of EU to collective defence, Syria, North Africa and, in the American minds, the growing armed instability in the South China Sea. All in all, including from a traffic perspective, Brussels will be messy. 

The waters of West Africa

The security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea are a new opportunity to promote cooperation between the key African States of the region, including Nigeria and Angola. They are also being used to enhance the political relations between those countries and States from outside the region. Brazil is one of those States. The US, of course, is particularly interested. And within the EU, Portugal has been a front player in terms of advancing the partnership agenda between Europe and West Africa.

My advice is that the partnership has to deal with fisheries protection – which key for the economy of the coastal populations of the region – as much as it deals with piracy and freedom of navigation. This dual approach is the only sustainable way forward. Without fishing the livelihood possibilities in the region will shrink further. And the illegal activities will be seen by many young people as one of the very few doors to remain open. 

Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name.