To: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Kremlin, Moscow
From: Niccolò Machiavelli, Secretary to the Second Chancery of the Republic of Florence
Date: 21 January 2026
Subject: On the Necessity of Outcome and the Perils of Protraction
Sir,
I observe your current enterprise from the cold detachment that only history and the study of human nature can provide. You have embarked upon a course that I once described as the most dangerous for any Prince: the attempt to alter a state by force without the means to secure it swiftly.
Permit me to offer a few observations on the verità effettuale—the effective truth—of your situation.
On the Mismanagement of Cruelty
In my writings, I argued that injuries should be done all at once, so that being felt less, they offend less.
You, sir, have committed the strategic sin of a "slow cruelty." By allowing this conflict to endure since 2022, you have not inspired the "salutary fear" that secures a conquest; instead, you have cultivated a "persistent hatred" that fuels an inexhaustible resistance.
A Prince may be feared, but he must avoid being hated, for the hatred of a people is a fortress that no artillery can breach.
On the Danger of Auxiliaries and the Union of Rivals
You have achieved what few thought possible: you have given your enemies a reason for Virtù. By threatening the safety of the European states, you have forced them to abandon their habitual indecision.
They are now seeking their own "arms"—as Victor Ângelo and others suggest—to no longer depend on the "auxiliary forces" of Washington. You have inadvertently acted as the architect of your rival’s unity. A wise Prince seeks to keep his neighbors divided; you have forged them into a hammer.
On Fortune and the People
You have relied heavily on the Fortuna of winter, energy, and political shifts in the West. But Fortune is a woman, and if you wish to master her, you must conquer her by force and audacity, not by waiting for her to change her mind.
You assumed the people of the Ukraine would be "spectators" to their own subjugation. You forgot that a people who have tasted even a shadow of liberty will never rest until they regain it. Their memory of freedom is longer than your memory of empire.
The Recommendation of the Fox
Sir, the lion alone cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox alone cannot defend himself from wolves.
You are currently trapped. If victory is not rapid and decisive, as I have always maintained, the Prince must find a way to "withdraw with dignity" or "reframe the outcome" as a triumph before the state’s treasury and the people's patience are entirely consumed.
Sun Tzu, a man of the East whom I have come to respect in this realm of shades, rightly notes that no nation benefits from prolonged war.
If you cannot be a Lion that destroys, you must be the Fox that negotiates a peace that looks like a victory. To continue as you are is not strength; it is a lack of Cervello—of brains.
In the end, history does not judge the "justice" of your cause, but the "stability" of your result. At present, you are producing only ruin.
I remain, your cold and watchful servant,
Niccolò Machiavelli
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