The Hungarian parliamentary elections and Viktor Orbán's ruses

Hungarian voters will decide this Sunday, 12 April, which political forces will be able to form a majority in the National Parliament and, consequently, who will be the country's future Prime Minister. The rest of Europe is anxiously awaiting the outcome of this election.

Viktor Orbán, who has led the government since 2010, is seeking his fifth consecutive term. Orbán, who plays on three boards simultaneously—Putin's Russia, Trump's America, and Brussels' Europe—has systematically exploited each of them to maximise his chances of re-election. He represents a contemporary form of political authoritarianism exercised within a formally democratic institutional framework. According to several analysts, this is one of the clearest examples of politics centred on the almost absolute power of the leader—an ancient phenomenon that is being reborn in the European space, in parallel with what is happening in other parts of the globe.

The ruses he has employed are varied. Electoral districts were redrawn to maximise the relative weight of rural votes, where his party, Fidesz, controls the electorate more easily. Conversely, the weight of urban votes, which traditionally favour the opposition, has been diluted. He abolished campaign spending limits, which disproportionately benefits the current governing party, Fidesz; according to the conclusions of various analysts, the party uses state resources as if they were its own money. This is, moreover, a recurring pattern of deliberate confusion between public resources and partisan or private interests. Various reports and analyses have noted that public funds, besides enriching those in power, are used as "ready cash" to muster support in rural areas.

Furthermore, the current government has made it easier for Hungarians living abroad—who traditionally support Orbán—to register to vote. He controls, directly or indirectly, about 90% of the media and manipulates social networks, all with the aim of spreading the message that the main opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, would be a puppet of Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Trump administration openly supports Viktor Orbán. Vice President JD Vance, a strangely ideological and profoundly retrograde politician, was in Hungary just a few days ago. He shamelessly interfered in the electoral process of an EU country. We must have the courage to say that interference of this kind is an unacceptable act.

Vance came to support a European leader who has very special ties with Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has the destruction of the EU and NATO at the top of his political agenda. He is a politician who asserts himself as our enemy and who seriously threatens our democratic space.

Orbán is a "Trojan Horse" for Putin, as recently suggested by The Washington Post. According to this prestigious American daily, there are credible reports—endorsed by multiple European sources—that the Hungarian government keeps the Kremlin informed, in real-time, of what is discussed in high-level meetings in Brussels. For example, there are credible allegations, published by major media outlets and cited by political intelligence sources, that Hungarian officials take advantage of breaks in European Council sessions to call Sergey Lavrov to obtain direct instructions from Moscow. On the other hand, it is suspected that NATO has stopped sharing certain strategic military plans with Hungary. There are fears that Orbán's government could compromise Alliance secrets regarding the defence of Ukraine.

Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, considers Orbán and his clique a direct threat to the security of the EU and its member states. The opinion of Tusk, who served as President of the European Council and leads a country well-acquainted with the Kremlin's clandestine practices, cannot be ignored or swept under the carpet, as some politicians are wont to do.

One of the most characteristic events of Orbán and Putin's cunning way of operating involved an attempt, attributed by many to Russian secret services, to orchestrate a fake attack against a pipeline or against Orbán himself on the eve of the elections. The intention would be clear: to blame these "staged crimes" on the opposition, allegedly in the pay of Zelenskyy and foreign interests, thereby emotionally boosting the chances of victory for Orbán, the "true" defender of the fatherland.

The European parties allied with Fidesz form one of the most reactionary families in the European Parliament: the Patriots for Europe. In truth, they possess neither patriotic sentiment nor any desire to defend European values. Democracy with ethics in public life is not their concern. They do not believe in the vital importance of cohesion within the European Union and do everything to undermine it. This political family includes Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (France), VOX (Spain), Lega (Italy), and ultra-nationalist and xenophobic parties from Czechia, Austria, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, and even Chega from Portugal, to name but a few of the most radical. The greatest danger comes from France: if the RN were to win the 2027 presidential elections, the Patriots for Europe would be in a better position to help achieve what both the Kremlin and Donald Trump's MAGA movement so desire—to implode the European Union.

It is fundamental that the Hungarian opposition obtains a majority on Sunday. More than just an anomaly, the Orbán case exposes a persistent European fragility: the difficulty of defending democracy when its hollowed-out from within its own institutions or member states.

Machiavelli writes to Vladimir Putin about Ukraine

 To: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Kremlin, Moscow

From: Niccolò Machiavelli, Secretary to the Second Chancery of the Republic of Florence

Date: 21 January 2026

Subject: On the Necessity of Outcome and the Perils of Protraction

Sir,

I observe your current enterprise from the cold detachment that only history and the study of human nature can provide. You have embarked upon a course that I once described as the most dangerous for any Prince: the attempt to alter a state by force without the means to secure it swiftly.

Permit me to offer a few observations on the verità effettuale—the effective truth—of your situation.

On the Mismanagement of Cruelty

In my writings, I argued that injuries should be done all at once, so that being felt less, they offend less. 

You, sir, have committed the strategic sin of a "slow cruelty." By allowing this conflict to endure since 2022, you have not inspired the "salutary fear" that secures a conquest; instead, you have cultivated a "persistent hatred" that fuels an inexhaustible resistance. 

A Prince may be feared, but he must avoid being hated, for the hatred of a people is a fortress that no artillery can breach.

On the Danger of Auxiliaries and the Union of Rivals

You have achieved what few thought possible: you have given your enemies a reason for Virtù. By threatening the safety of the European states, you have forced them to abandon their habitual indecision. 

They are now seeking their own "arms"—as Victor Ângelo and others suggest—to no longer depend on the "auxiliary forces" of Washington. You have inadvertently acted as the architect of your rival’s unity. A wise Prince seeks to keep his neighbors divided; you have forged them into a hammer.

On Fortune and the People

You have relied heavily on the Fortuna of winter, energy, and political shifts in the West. But Fortune is a woman, and if you wish to master her, you must conquer her by force and audacity, not by waiting for her to change her mind. 

You assumed the people of the Ukraine would be "spectators" to their own subjugation. You forgot that a people who have tasted even a shadow of liberty will never rest until they regain it. Their memory of freedom is longer than your memory of empire.

The Recommendation of the Fox

Sir, the lion alone cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox alone cannot defend himself from wolves. 

You are currently trapped. If victory is not rapid and decisive, as I have always maintained, the Prince must find a way to "withdraw with dignity" or "reframe the outcome" as a triumph before the state’s treasury and the people's patience are entirely consumed.

Sun Tzu, a man of the East whom I have come to respect in this realm of shades, rightly notes that no nation benefits from prolonged war. 

If you cannot be a Lion that destroys, you must be the Fox that negotiates a peace that looks like a victory. To continue as you are is not strength; it is a lack of Cervello—of brains.

In the end, history does not judge the "justice" of your cause, but the "stability" of your result. At present, you are producing only ruin.

I remain, your cold and watchful servant,

Niccolò Machiavelli

Ukraine: the opinions of Carl von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu

A letter from Carl von Clausewitz

 To the "Good European," Victor Ângelo,

You write of a "dead order" and seek a solution to the carnage in Ukraine. You use the language of philosophers and diplomats, but I must speak to you in the language of the Schwerpunkt—the Center of Gravity.

You ask for a solution? In war, there is no "solution" found in a cabinet; there is only a decision found on the field. War is a trinity: it is composed of the blind instinct of the people (hatred and enmity), the play of probability and chance (the military), and the rational subordination to policy (the government). In Ukraine, this trinity is in total friction.

Here is my counsel on your "solution":

1. Identify the Center of Gravity

A war ends when one side’s Center of Gravity is broken. For Ukraine, the center is not a city, but the Will of the West to sustain its supply. For Russia, the center is the Stability of the Regime in Moscow. If you wish for a solution, you must stop seeking "dialogue" and start seeking the "point of collapse." To end a war, you must make the cost of continuing it exceed the value of the political object. Currently, neither side believes they have reached that point.

2. Beware the "Fog of War" and Friction

You speak of "Strategic Autonomy" and "UN80 Reform." These are beautiful maps, but the map is not the territory. Everything in war is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. This is Friction. A diplomat’s pen moves easily; a battalion through the mud does not. Your "solution" must account for the fact that Vladimir Putin is operating within the "Fog"—he is betting that your "European Will" is a fragile thing that will shatter under the weight of a long, cold winter.

3. The Political Object defines the Military Aim

You mentioned that the "International Order is dead." If the political object—the restoration of that order—is truly dead, then the military aim in Ukraine has become untethered. A war without a clear political object is merely a slaughter.

• My advice: Europe must decide exactly what its "Political Object" is. Is it the total defeat of Russia (which requires a total mobilization you are not prepared for)? Or is it the survival of a sovereign Ukraine (which requires a "Limited War" strategy)? You cannot have both with the same level of investment.

4. The Defensive is the Stronger Form

You worry that Russia is "intensifying its aggression." Remember my maxim: The defensive form of war is in itself stronger than the offensive. Ukraine has proved this. But the defense has a "culminating point." If Ukraine is pushed beyond its ability to strike back, its defense will become a brittle shell. Your "European Defense Autonomy" must be the "shield of the weak" that allows the defense to remain active and lethal.

5. On the "Spirit of Dialogue"

Dialogue in the midst of a total clash of wills is merely a "breathing space" for the combatants. Do not mistake a pause for a peace. A true solution only arrives when the "diminishing force of the offensive" meets the "mounting power of the defensive" at a point where both sides realize that total victory is a mirage.

My Verdict: Do not seek "optimism," Victor. Seek the "Culminating Point." Strengthen the Ukrainian Center of Gravity until the Russian Will to Power hits a wall of reality. Only when the Kremlin realizes that the "Political Object" (the erasure of Ukraine) is costing more than the "Means" (the Russian State) will the war move from the battlefield back to the "Continuation of Politics"—the negotiating table.

Until then, arm your reason as heavily as you arm your soldiers.

Carl von Clausewitz

________________________________________

The reply from Sun Tzu

From the Pavilion of Infinite Stillness

To the General Clausewitz and the Scholar Victor Ângelo,

I have listened to the General speak of "Centers of Gravity" and "Mass." He speaks of war as a great hammer striking a cold anvil. It is a loud philosophy, full of smoke and the scent of iron. But I tell you: the peak of efficiency is to win without fighting.

General Clausewitz focuses on the Conflict; I focus on the Calculation. He seeks the "Culminating Point" of force; I seek the "Turning Point" of the spirit.

Victor, you speak of a "Dead Order." I say: In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity. Do not mourn the old order. When the old walls crumble, the terrain is finally clear for those who know how to move.

Here is my response to the General’s advice concerning the war in the West:

1. The Strategy of the Sheathed Sword

The General says war is the continuation of politics. I say: All warfare is based on deception. If the Kremlin believes the West is weary, it will strike. If the West shows its teeth too fiercely, the Kremlin will become desperate like a cornered tiger. The "Solution" is not to break the enemy's Center of Gravity with a hammer, but to disrupt his alliances and frustrate his plans before his troops even move. The EU-Mercosur agreement you mentioned is a "Heavenly Move"—it wins a battle in the West by securing the South, without firing a single shot.

2. Know the Enemy and Know Yourself

General Clausewitz speaks of "Friction" and "Fog." I tell you: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. Putin’s strength is his perceived "Will." His weakness is his isolation from the flow of the world. Europe’s strength is its "Order." Its weakness is its hesitation. To win, Europe must make its hesitation look like "Patient Strategy" and its unity look like "Infinite Depth."

3. The Golden Bridge

The General says a war ends when one side collapses. I caution you: Do not press a desperate foe too hard. A surrounded enemy will fight with the strength of ten because he has no choice but to die. If you seek a "solution" in Ukraine, you must build a "Golden Bridge" for your enemy to retreat across. If you leave him no path to save his face, he will burn the world to save his ego. Your diplomacy must be like water: soft enough to offer an exit, but relentless enough to erode his foundation.

4. Speed and Subtlety

Clausewitz speaks of the "Defensive as the Stronger Form." I agree, but with a warning: An army prefers high ground to low, and sunny places to dark. Your "European Defense Autonomy" must not be a static wall (the Low Ground). It must be a "Sunlit Strategy"—an intelligence that sees the enemy’s move before he makes it. Use the "Indirect Way." Strengthen Ukraine not just with steel, but by making the Russian people realize that their leader is leading them into a desert while the rest of the world moves toward the oasis.

5. The Use of "Shi" (Strategic Momentum)

You gather at Davos. Do not use it for "Dialogue"—that is for the weak. Use it to build Shi (Strategic Momentum). When the momentum is high, even a round boulder will roll down a mountain with unstoppable force. If you align the Global South, the European Defense, and the Trade Agreements of the West, the "Momentum of History" will shift. At that point, the Kremlin will not "collapse" under a blow; it will simply find itself standing still while the world moves on without it.

My Verdict: General Clausewitz wants to win the war. I want to make the war impossible to continue. Victor, do not seek a "Decision" on the battlefield alone. Seek to make the enemy’s victory so expensive and his isolation so complete that his own people see his "Will to Power" as a "Will to Ruin."

Victory is not a destination; it is a change in the wind.

Sun Tzu