What lies ahead is simply unique

The economic dimension of the crisis is huge. That’s now obvious to everyone, as the figures about unemployment and temporary layoffs become known. And that explains the gigantic size of the recovery programmes that have been announced. The amounts are just mind-boggling, difficult to imagine, because of the large number of zeros that follow the initial figure. Hundreds of billions, many of them close to trillion figures, or even above, as it is the case in the US. We are talking about funds that are simply not available. They will have to be printed.

It is a dramatic situation to many families and a move to extraordinary levels of indebtment by the States, the corporations and firms, and the families. Large amounts of debt, both public and private, were already a key feature in many countries. Our economies have been in the red for several years. But the previous debt levels will look as small fish when compared with the numbers in the next phase, the recovery phase. Most of that debt will be untenable and will have to be write off, sooner or later. That will cause major changes in wealth ownership. The point will be to manage such transition in a way that would avoid the ruin of key sectors of the economy, including the pension mechanisms, the banking and insurance systems, the bond and the property markets.

It is indeed a completely new ball game. We will have to play it and keep defining the rules as we move on. It will require an extraordinary level of international cooperation. That means wise leadership, plenty of foresight and political courage. Unfortunately, wise leadership seems to be a dimension that is seriously absent in the current international relations scenario. In my opinion, that’s one of the key risks that can seriously disrupt the next stage of our life in this small planet. These will be exceptional times.

Tomorrow's world

This pandemic might be a major turning point in many aspects of today’s lifestyles, not to mention politics and international relations. We will see. Some people are already speculating about those changes. That’s a way for them to advance their own personal agendas and political views. They can write many words about the coronavirus and its links to consumerism, inequalities, environmental issues and so on, including the impact of individual liberties. I have already read several pieces that do that expedition into the future of the humanity. And I concluded that all those words end up by being vague and a repetition of current banners. Propaganda instead of prospective thinking.

They distract many of us of the real challenges of the moment: to slow down the spreading of the virus and support the required research to produce a vaccine as soon as possible. These should be the two top priorities at this stage.

If you are a social scientist, a philosopher or an opinion maker, you should concentrate your attention on the first challenge. That’s within your reach. Tell the people they can make a difference in terms of contagion if they behave responsibly. Tell above all the young people to be as prudent as everybody else. The younger ones have been told that the disease would only have a mild effect on them. That was a communication mistake. It can seriously affect them, first. And they can catch it and pass it on to older people, with disastrous consequences.  

The debate about the future will take place at the appropriate time, once things are again under control. It will certainly be a very interesting discussion. Tomorrow’s world will be a post-coronavirus new reality, I am sure.

EU: the foundations of the common building are shaking

The current events in the EU are like a major quake. Their impact on the common European project will radically change a number of things. It´s also a long term shock wave.

My advice today is that people who care should start a serious debate about the changes that are in the making. It´s time to think beyond the daily dramas and have a good understanding of the key trends.

We need to hear from minds that can read the future.