Tonight,
after the EU Council meeting, my bet is that the chances of seeing Margrethe
Vestager as the next Commission President have seriously increased.
Manfred
Weber, the leading MEP from the centre-right, the biggest political family in
the European Parliament, is not getting the support of Emmanuel Macron, Pedro Sánchez
and António Costa, among others. They seem prepared to veto his name. That’s
not appreciated by Angela Merkel. But the German Chancellor has lost influence
in the EU Council’s meetings.
Frans
Timmermans, the Socialist leader, is the most experienced candidate. But the
member States from Eastern Europe do not like him at all. As the current number
two in Brussels, he has been tough on them, particularly on matters of rule of
law and freedoms. Those leaders will say no to his nomination.
Michel
Barnier is also a very respected and capable politician. His leading role
during the Brexit negotiations have shown his high calibre. And he has the
right posture. But he is supported by Emmanuel Macron and that’s enough for
Viktor Orbán or the Italians – with Matteo Salvini on the background – to firmly
opposing Barnier.
Is
there another name that could emerge in the next few days, beyond Vestager’s?
It’s possible but not very likely. Unless the Council goes for one of its members,
such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. That happened in
2004, when José Manuel Barroso was chosen out of the blue and as a way of resolving
the impasse.
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