The European Council meeting

A couple of senior French journalists, seasoned when it comes to cover events around the EU in Brussels, wrote that the European Council meeting of yesterday and today ended up by being a great victory for President Macron. Such comment is a serious mistake. The summit was not about Macron versus Merkel, as they want us to see it. It was a meeting of leaders, twenty-seven of them. They were presented with three names as possible candidates to Juncker’s succession. The names were based on the spitzenkandidat approach. And none of the candidates got enough traction to be considered for the job of President of the European Council. Not because of Emmanuel Macron’s opposition. Not because the spitzencandidat approach was rejected. It is just that each candidate had several leaders that opposed their nomination. And that’s how Europe should work. The head of the new Commission must be someone that meets the approval and respect of the heads of State and government. That is more necessary than ever. It will take a bit more time to decide. But this is a very important decision. A collective one, not a French chauvinist move.

Juncker's succession is gaining shape

Tonight, after the EU Council meeting, my bet is that the chances of seeing Margrethe Vestager as the next Commission President have seriously increased.

Manfred Weber, the leading MEP from the centre-right, the biggest political family in the European Parliament, is not getting the support of Emmanuel Macron, Pedro Sánchez and António Costa, among others. They seem prepared to veto his name. That’s not appreciated by Angela Merkel. But the German Chancellor has lost influence in the EU Council’s meetings.

Frans Timmermans, the Socialist leader, is the most experienced candidate. But the member States from Eastern Europe do not like him at all. As the current number two in Brussels, he has been tough on them, particularly on matters of rule of law and freedoms. Those leaders will say no to his nomination.

Michel Barnier is also a very respected and capable politician. His leading role during the Brexit negotiations have shown his high calibre. And he has the right posture. But he is supported by Emmanuel Macron and that’s enough for Viktor Orbán or the Italians – with Matteo Salvini on the background – to firmly opposing Barnier.  

Is there another name that could emerge in the next few days, beyond Vestager’s? It’s possible but not very likely. Unless the Council goes for one of its members, such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. That happened in 2004, when José Manuel Barroso was chosen out of the blue and as a way of resolving the impasse.

Brexit is in town

Brexit night, again, here in Brussels. Theresa May wants a short postponement of her country’s Brexit date. That is certainly something that would make sense, now that her government and the Labour Party are engaged in talks. EU leaders could wait for those talks to conclude, be it that in the end there is no agreement between the two sides. The position could stand as a recognition of the merit of such talks, an invitation for a national decision on a matter that is of crucial importance to the British nation.

That would be my position in today’s summit meeting. Such position would give the UK Prime Minister some political strength, at a time when she is very weak, it would show respect to her and it could be supported by the European public opinion.