Rajoy, a temporary victory

Mariano Rajoy has just been confirmed by Spain´s Parliament as Prime Minister. He won the vote because the Socialist Party (PSOE) decided to abstain. After ten months of political uncertainties and drama, the country has now a full-fledged government.

But Rajoy, who has been Prime Minister since 2011 – in Spain the job is called President of the Government, to indicate the authority that is attached to it – starts his new mandate from a very weak power base. His party does not control enough votes in the Cortes (Parliament). This means he will have to look for compromise at the critical moments of his governance. Not easy, as Spain´s political scene is very fragmented. Moreover, there are many personal antipathies among the key party leaders. And Rajoy himself is not really a man that knows about bridge-building. He is too arrogant to be able to act as a good negotiator.

Rajoy´s term might be short-lived. Spain could have new general elections in a year or two. Fortunately, the economy is doing well and steadily recovering from the deep crisis it suffered a few years ago.

The Spanish elections: Act 2

Once again the opinion polls were wrong. This time they missed the picture in the Spanish general elections. The forecasts and the final results belong to two different worlds. And this raises a definitive question: the sampling methods are outdated. The polls as they are presently carried out can´t be trusted anymore. A new type of pre-electoral analysis is required. We have an opening here.

Regarding the elections outcome, outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should be congratulated. His party, in the centre-right of the political spectrum, did much better than expected. But the number of seats he got is not enough to have a majority. In the circumstances, he would prefer to lead a grand coalition that would bring together his party, the Socialists and the citizens’ movement of liberal inspiration, known as Ciudadanos.

I do not think that will happen. In the end, Rajoy will have to govern alone, and hope the Socialists will let him move on and stay in charge. That´s a very precarious arrangement. It will not last. Basically, as I see it, we will have general elections again any time in the second half of 2017.