The Spanish elections: Act 2

Once again the opinion polls were wrong. This time they missed the picture in the Spanish general elections. The forecasts and the final results belong to two different worlds. And this raises a definitive question: the sampling methods are outdated. The polls as they are presently carried out can´t be trusted anymore. A new type of pre-electoral analysis is required. We have an opening here.

Regarding the elections outcome, outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should be congratulated. His party, in the centre-right of the political spectrum, did much better than expected. But the number of seats he got is not enough to have a majority. In the circumstances, he would prefer to lead a grand coalition that would bring together his party, the Socialists and the citizens’ movement of liberal inspiration, known as Ciudadanos.

I do not think that will happen. In the end, Rajoy will have to govern alone, and hope the Socialists will let him move on and stay in charge. That´s a very precarious arrangement. It will not last. Basically, as I see it, we will have general elections again any time in the second half of 2017. 

Good examples coming from Spain

The Spanish general elections revealed a very high participation rate – close to 73% - a strong support to two grassroots movements, one at the left of the spectrum, Podemos, and the other at the centre, Ciudadanos. The conclusion is that Spaniards feel committed to parliamentary democracy and want to be heard. As a result, there is a true renewal in the political circles. This should be example to be followed by other European countries, including France next door.

It is also a fact that the outcome of the elections has brought some serious fragmentation to Parliament. But I see that as a positive move. It will require the parties to seek alliances and compromises. And that´s how politics in the EU member states should be. 

Spain´s Podemos is on the streets

The emblematic square Puerta del Sol in Madrid was full of people this afternoon. They came as part of the new popular political movement Podemos (We Can). It was their first big rally in preparation for the general elections that will take place this fall. And by the size and enthusiasm of the crowd – the best estimates mention 150,000 people – I think we can expect a very interesting electoral year in Spain.

But it is also clear that their future is very much linked to the destiny of the new government in Greece. If Syriza keeps its momentum and achieves a good deal of its promises, than we can expect Podemos to be the big winner of the Spanish elections. The connection is clear. Even if Podemos appears to be less confrontational than its sister party in Greece.