Once
again the opinion polls were wrong. This time they missed the picture in the
Spanish general elections. The forecasts and the final results belong to two
different worlds. And this raises a definitive question: the sampling methods
are outdated. The polls as they are presently carried out can´t be trusted
anymore. A new type of pre-electoral analysis is required. We have an opening
here.
Regarding
the elections outcome, outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should be
congratulated. His party, in the centre-right of the political spectrum, did
much better than expected. But the number of seats he got is not enough to have
a majority. In the circumstances, he would prefer to lead a grand coalition
that would bring together his party, the Socialists and the citizens’ movement
of liberal inspiration, known as Ciudadanos.
I
do not think that will happen. In the end, Rajoy will have to govern alone, and
hope the Socialists will let him move on and stay in charge. That´s a very
precarious arrangement. It will not last. Basically, as I see it, we will have
general elections again any time in the second half of 2017.
