An opinion poll released this morning shows that 22% of the
Portuguese voters would vote for the Communists and the leftist party called
Boco de Esquerda. It is indeed the radical left that would take greater
advantage of the social malaise that defines the country's current political
situation.
The Socialists, a centre-left party, would however be the
election winner, with 32.7% of the votes. But this result is not good enough
and would call for a coalition with a smaller party. The most likely candidate
would be the centre-right CDS, which represents 9.5% of the electorate.
Well, CDS is at present in government as a junior partner in
a conservative coalition. One can expect the Socialists to take all kinds of
initiatives to poison the existing coalition and provoke fresh elections as
soon as possible. If they do not manage to bring the existing government down
they will have to wait until 2015, when new elections are due. That’s a very
long period for those who think they can get to power right away.
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