Portuguese presidential elections

The Portuguese voted yesterday to elect a new Head of State. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a law professor and a TV personality – for many years he commented every Sunday on politics and general affairs on a national news channel and became a household name – was voted in as the next President.

For part of the public opinion he is seen as a moderate right-winger. In fact, he is an open-minded conservative, very liberal in many aspects. In other societies, he would be labelled as a man of the centre-left. Actually, many of those on the Portuguese right would be considered as pretty progressive by the standards of several rightist parties in other countries of Europe. And, in the US, Donald Trump would call them “dangerous leftists”…

An Indian face in Europe´s politics

The Portuguese Socialist Party has a new leader: António Costa, the current mayor of Lisbon. On Sunday he won the party´s nomination by an overwhelming majority of the votes. He was running against the outgoing Secretary-General of the party, António José Seguro, and received the support of more than two-thirds of the voters. The mandate is clear. And the level of hope invested on him as well.

On the father´s side, António Costa has his family roots in Goa, India. His election places him in a very good position to be the next Prime-minister of Portugal, by next year´s autumn. To have a Prime-minister that is of Indian origin shows how much Portugal and Europe´s ethnicity mix has changed and keeps changing. This is the new Europe, built on old nations and new immigrants. This is also a Europe that has to adjust to a more globalised world.

In my opinion it is good news to open up. We Europeans need to have a much broader view of ourselves and of our position in the affairs of the world. It is not just about being more tolerant. It is also about getting a better grasp about the world´s diversity and how to insert ourselves in an international reality that has changed and will continue to change at a very high speed. 

Portugal could have been brought down by a single man

Ricardo Salgado, the top man at the Portuguese bank Banco Espírito Santo (BES) had been called by his countrymen the “owner of everything”. He was indeed a very influential fellow. Now, it has been concluded that his bank was in shambles and that the gentleman, who had friends in almost every corner of the political, economic and academic elite chessboards, was about to bring the Portuguese economy down, not just his bank and business empire. His business interests were wide and covered several sectors. The misjudgments, the malpractices and the cover-ups have therefore a very wide impact. The true measure of this collapse is yet to be fully grasped. For the time being, only the bank side of the story has been safeguarded. But an initial lesson that can be learned from this saga is that when a banker is also a major business actor, in a relatively small economy, things can go very wrong. 

Pyromania

Former Portuguese President Mario Soares is now an old man. But he is still very much involved in his country´s politics. And at present he is in a crusade against the current President, Cavaco Silva, and the Prime Minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Soares is actively campaigning to get them to resign. He thinks that these two are the key culprits when it comes to the economic crisis Portugal is going through.

As he is a fighter, and remains so, notwithstanding old age, Soares does not give up. And sometimes, as he did a couple of days ago, he goes too far and gives the impression that he is inciting people to violently oppose the President and the Prime Minister. Even, to physically attack them.

He knows, of course, that advocating violence against the Head of State and the Prime Minister could be seen as a criminal initiative. Therefore, he gives the impression that he is advising both of them to quit before it is too late and violence erupts.

As they say, the old fox knows how to go about catching the chicken.

The only problem is that Soares is fuelling a situation that is already very tense. That is a bit of a worry for many of us who think that the country needs enlightenment, not fires. 

The weather is not good

Today we had municipal elections in Portugal. It is, at this time, a bit early to get to conclusions. But it is obvious that many will read the results as a defeat for the government. And this will bring additional political stress to a situation is far from being stable. The country will continue to be a poor lame duck in a European scene that is less and less prepared those that keep limping behind. 

Political clarity in Portugal

Portugal goes to bed tonight with a clear mind: the President has decided that the current Prime Minister and his coalition government will remain in power and will have a chance to complete their mandate.

My hope is that the PM and the leader of the junior party in the coalition have learned one or two governance lessons and become more responsive to political dialogue with others, including the key opposition party – the Socialists – and business and labour leaders. 

Portuguese challenges

The key Portuguese parties have been requested by the President to look for a broad political accord in order to guarantee enough stability during the last year of implementation of the current agreement with the international creditors.

This call is a surprise move by President Cavaco Silva. It reflects in many ways the huge economic and social challenges the country has to confront in the near future. It also reflects a very serious polarisation of the domestic political situation, not just between the government and the opposition, but also within the coalition parties themselves.  

It is a critical moment for the Portuguese. But in general, people have shown a tremendous amount of wisdom and have tried to navigate these difficult times. It is however very easy to give up hope and fall into sectarian partisan approaches. The President’s initiative should allow the political leaders to show that they place the national interest above personality clashes and power games. It is however a very complex call, very difficult to be successful. It can only be achieved if leading party people have the stature of statesmen. That’s, at the end of the day, what is on the table today in Portugal: an invitation to grow beyond one’s own limitations and to show commitment to a larger goal. 

Portugal loves political confusion

Yesterday, the Portuguese Finance Minister left the government. That was no big surprise, in the end, as many had expected that decision for quite a bit of time. 

But today we got the real surprise: the Foreign Minister, Paulo Portas, who is also the leader of the junior party in the coalition government, called it quits. The destabilising impact of his decision is enormous. I do not expect the current government to survive such blow. 

Actually, Portas seems to have the same opinion. By quitting now he is getting ready to come back in late September, in alliance with the Socialist Party. So, he is playing for his political continuity. 

The problem is that all this has a very deep impact on Portugal’s access to the international financial markets. Without proper access there will be no money to bridge the public finances gap. That means plenty of hard times ahead. But in party politics that’s not important. What is really critical is for the political leaders to have access to power and everything that comes with it. They are no statesmen. They are, like you and me, just trying to make a nice living out of bad politics and the country’s ruin. 

It’s a matter of choice. 

Portugal's Finance Minister has resigned

The Portuguese Finance Minister, Vítor Gaspar, resigned this afternoon. He had lost the public opinion battle long ago, as he was seen by the voters as the engine of the austerity programme Portugal has been implementing for two years. His name was, in the people’s minds, linked to taxes and economic recession. This was, of course, an unfair connection, as the economic situation of the country is much more complex than just the austerity measures he had to adopt. But politics are like that: you cannot find yourself without a popular power base.

For a long period, his power came from the confidence the Prime Minister had on his abilities to master the intricacies of the financial adjustment programme in addition to fact that Gaspar had a lot of support in Brussels, Berlin, Frankfurt and other EU capitals. But this was a time-bound power base, condemned to die. As the Prime Minister felt more and more isolated, including within his own party, his support to the man everyone identifies with the austerity could only come to an end. It has now happened. And Gaspar, who is an outsider in terms of the national politics, could read the writing on the wall. 

Portuguese politics

An opinion poll released this morning shows that 22% of the Portuguese voters would vote for the Communists and the leftist party called Boco de Esquerda. It is indeed the radical left that would take greater advantage of the social malaise that defines the country's current political situation.

The Socialists, a centre-left party, would however be the election winner, with 32.7% of the votes. But this result is not good enough and would call for a coalition with a smaller party. The most likely candidate would be the centre-right CDS, which represents 9.5% of the electorate.

Well, CDS is at present in government as a junior partner in a conservative coalition. One can expect the Socialists to take all kinds of initiatives to poison the existing coalition and provoke fresh elections as soon as possible. If they do not manage to bring the existing government down they will have to wait until 2015, when new elections are due. That’s a very long period for those who think they can get to power right away. 

Strong, capable and accepted leadership is critical

The Portuguese Constitutional Court has reviewed the 2013 national budget law and declared four revenue generating measures invalid because they violate the spirit of the country’s Constitution. The cancellation of these fiscal initiatives has an impact on the overall budget deficit, as they increase it by 0.8% to reach a deficit of around 6.3% of GDP this year. This is way above the amount agreed with Portugal’s external creditors. It projects a negative international image that contradicts the very serious stabilisation efforts the country has implemented so far.

The Court’s decision has created a major political crisis. The Prime-Minister met the President this evening to review possible options. But there aren't many, in the short term. The stabilisation process requires a long time horizon. The country has to be able to convince its external partners that as it pleads for more time and flexibility it also stays the reform course. It has also to show that it has a strong, capable and accepted leadership at the rudder…  

Portugal on the street

Large crowds marched today in the key cities and towns of Portugal against the austerity measures the government is implementing. The key feature of these manifestations was their peaceful nature. People have shown, once more, that they can be on the streets and behave responsibly.

Many of the protesters could be defined as middle class families that are going through a process of impoverishment. For many of them and for many years their living standards were based on a fiction: that the country could afford a level of public expenditures that was well beyond the means of the economy. With the international financial crisis this fiction could no longer be sustained. The state could no longer borrow in the international markets at low rates of interest. To be able to finance the public sector and adjust spending to the real possibilities of the economy over a short period of time, the state had to look for funds coming from the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission. These monies came with strings attached, as expected. And that hurts. It hurts even further because the government has realised – but cannot explain it properly and clearly, for reasons that are beyond my understanding – that the long term sustainability of public expenditures calls for further cuts, particularly if one takes into account the fragility of the economy and the very low rate of productive investment that has been recorded so far.

In a country where the state was the true engine of the economy – unfortunately the private sector had not been able during the last two decades to take off and expand; it remained too dependent of state projects and orders and largely linked to political patronage – if public expenditure goes significantly down most of the economy tends to collapse.

The point is to get as many investments from outside as possible. My hope is that today’s popular civism be perceived by those potentially interested in investing in Portugal as an encouragement to do so. 

The Portuguese kindergarten

The IMF has just published a review of Portugal’s public expenditures. The report came as a bomb at a time when the public debate about 2013 State budget had already generated an avalanche of political fights and great instability, including within the governing parties. Now, with the IMF’s recommendations on the table, the country looks like a big fire being dealt with gasoline. There is widespread cacophony, exaltation and very little self-examination and reflection. It is like a kindergarten without any adult in charge. 

Barroso spends time in Portugal

Barroso delivered a very interesting speech yesterday in Lisbon. The link to the Portuguese language version of it is the folloowing:

http://ec.europa.eu/portugal/comissao/destaques/20130104_discurso_presidente_fund_champalimaud_pt.htm

Addressing the annual "Diplomatic Seminar", the EU Commission President discussed a number of "erroneous" myths about Europe. In his opinion, the truth is: 1-The current crisis did not start in Europe; 2- Europe is not the sick region of the world; 3- The Euro (currency) is not the cause of the crisis; 4- The EU institutions did provide proposals and ideas to overcome the crisis; 5- There has been solidarity among the European states; 6- Austerity is needed where there is a serious deficit of public accounts.

His participation in the seminar carried a lot of political meaning in a highly politicized environment such as the one prevailing now in Portugal. It shows he is particularly interested in being perceived as a critical national political actor at a time of uncertainty about the future of the current government. He would like to be seen as   a potential "saviour"...Furthermore, his presence side by side with the Foreign Minister, who is not fully aligned with the policies of Prime Minister Passos Coelho, has been considered as giving leverage to minority voices within the government. Particularly if one takes into account that he said that adjustment programmes should be implemented with common sense, not just with determination, and be accompanied by dialogue among all the social actors and good communication packages...These are things that the government has been accused of not paying enough attention to. Now, Barroso seems to have joined the band wagon...

Passos Coelho would certainly have preferred to see the EU President in Brussels. Or the man is back in Lisbon next week again. For another keynote speech.victorangeloblogs.sapo.pt