Spain getting deeper involved in Arica

Spain wants to race in Africa on its own track

Victor Ângelo

 

The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, was recently in Luanda and, on his return, in Dakar. The trip marked the start of the action plan approved by his government under the title "Focus Africa 2023". The plan is a bet on African prosperity. Spain wants to be a major partner in the development of a set of countries designated as priorities. The list includes, in the North, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, leaving out Libya and Tunisia - a nation to which Europe should pay special attention. It also includes all West Africa (ECOWAS) and countries from other regions - Ethiopia, the triangle that Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania form, South Africa and, closer to Portuguese interests, Angola, and Mozambique. This dispersion of efforts seems to me to be a weak point.

The plan is based on reinforcing embassies and trade delegations and expanding bilateral cooperation, including in the areas of culture, security, and defence. Beyond the political intentions, it opens the door and protects Spanish private investments in the selected countries. It is an intervention with two complementary fronts, the political and the economic. Arancha González, who headed the International Trade Center, a UN body, and is now Minister of Foreign Affairs, had the opportunity to see what China, India and others are doing in Africa. This experience has allowed her to design a strategy that is current, attractive, and capable of responding to Spanish nationalism. It serves, on the other hand, the personal agenda of the minister, who dreams of great flights on the international scene.

The declared ambition is to turn Spain into an indispensable player in African matters, within the European Union. In this way it will increase its relative weight in the universe of Brussels. The document clearly states that Madrid wants to lead EU action in Africa. Spanish politicians and businessmen know that Europe's relationship with the African continent will be, for several reasons, a central theme of European foreign policy. They are positioning themselves to make the most of that future.

Spain does not have the sub-Saharan experience that other EU countries have accumulated throughout history. But it shows political determination. It will be able to develop more objective relations, without the shadows of the colonial past and the misunderstandings that arose post-independence. It would be a mistake, however, not to seek to take advantage of the connections and knowledge that France, Belgium and Portugal in particular have acquired. The challenge is too great for an incursion without partnerships. That is the second weak point of this move.

The visit to Angola made it clear that it is about occupying the largest economic space possible, from agriculture and fisheries to transport and energy. There are more than 80 Spanish investment projects already underway or in the start-up phase. There also seems to be the intention of counting on Luanda to help Madrid normalize relations with Equatorial Guinea, which was the only colony that Spain had south of the Sahara and is now part of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP). These moves appear to be in direct competition with Portugal's interests. However, knowledge of the complexities of Angola and Equatorial Guinea would rather recommend a joint effort on the part of the two Iberian states.  

In Senegal, the problem is different. It has to do with clandestine migration. The country is a hub for those who want to enter Europe via the Canary Islands. The Senegalese are in second place, after the Moroccans, when it comes to illegal arrivals in the Spanish archipelago. It is also through the Senegalese beaches that many others pass, coming from countries in the region. For this reason, Spain has deployed 57 police officers in Senegal to help dismantle the trafficking networks and prevent people from embarking on a very dangerous sea crossing. The other dimension of the visit to Dakar is that Senegal remains the political centre and an anchor of stability in West Africa.

From all of this, I must say that running on your own track in the vastness of Africa is a challenge that I would not even recommend to a giant.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

We cannot keep shooting ourselves in the foot

Tidying up the ghosts that haunt us

Victor Angelo

 

In the times of the Soviet Union, it was said in Moscow that the past was unpredictable. The history of communist governance changed every time a new clique took over the Kremlin. That joke reminds us that the narrative about history has colossal political importance. It is usually captured by the ruling class to justify its control of power. This is the case in dictatorships.

In a democratic framework, a version should prevail, especially in describing the most controversial eras, which is as close as possible to a broad consensus. States are built with ups and downs. They result from the various facets that peoples have experienced over time, in a connection of heroic and creative moments with others of retrogression and tragedy. The truth is that a modern country cannot live in continuous disquiet with its past. States that have experienced profound national crises and have finally managed to leave behind authoritarian regimes that abuse human rights must find ways to put that phase of their history in order and focus their energies on building a future that is free, prosperous, and more just. And at peace with itself.

This is what happened in the 1990s in South Africa or, later already in our century, in Sierra Leone after the atrocities committed during the civil war (1991-2002). In both cases, the new political authorities established Truth and Reconciliation Commissions. In addition to holding accountable those who had played a key role during the dark period and acknowledging the crimes committed by individuals who acted as excessive enforcers of orders received, the commissions allowed for the building of an acceptable memory about those painful times, provided a platform for victims to make their voices heard and addressed common anxieties.

Over the past three decades more than forty countries have seen the need to make a collective introspection of their past. They have used tools for the administration of justice and reconciliation close to those piloted by the South Africans and Sierra Leoneans, with the necessary adaptations for each context. In general, these efforts have led to the strengthening of national cohesion. A summary of their conclusions shows that the focus was always placed on four pillars: explaining what happened, amnesty, reparations and resolving discrimination. The aim is to acknowledge mistakes, prevent their repetition, erase hatred and create the conditions to face the future in a constructive manner.

One of the most recent commissions was the Canadian one (2015). The core of its mission was to analyse the injustices perpetrated against indigenous communities and to propose measures of reparation and equalisation of opportunities. The issue was important as it fed a social fracture line and gave space to racist discourses on white superiority. Looking at the United States, Canadians understand the importance of combating racism and radicalism based on skin colour. 

A people cannot spend their days discussing the ghosts of old. Nor imitate the Stalinists who erased characters from official photographs according to the political convenience of the hour. The ghosts that each people have - some will have more than others - should be catalogued with common sense and stored in the museum of historical facts.

Recent noises have led me to write this text. I am referring to the controversy about the coats of arms in Praça do Império opposite the Jerónimos Monastery in Lisbon, the demolishing idea that brought the Monument to the Discoveries to the social networks or even the passing of a former soldier who won his medals in the colonial war. The extreme passion of the positions taken by many shows, once again, that we still cannot talk calmly about the Portugal that turned the page almost fifty years ago. Now, without forgetting what happened, the many problems we face require us to move on to the next chapter. Otherwise, we will be in conflict with ourselves, absorbed in shooting ourselves in the foot, for the profit and pleasure of those who want to keep us distracted.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

 

 

Marine Le Pen and her little brothers elsewhere

Le Pen and our pains

Victor Angelo

 

Marine Le Pen came to Portugal to support his ideological relative. In France, she is the most visible and fierce face of right-wing extremism. Her party, the Rassemblement National (RN), is a collection of backwards, neo-fascists, racists, ruffians, antiglobalists, as well as several political orphans and other resentful people. The mixture includes part of the new poor, a proletariat which the modernisation and internationalisation of the economy have pushed to the suburbs of politics and life. The RN represents a little over 20% of the electorate, a revealing percentage of a France full of contradictions, frustrations, inequalities, and hatreds. On the party scene in the country, Le Pen and his people are regarded, including by the conservative right, as not at all recommendable, people one should not be associated with.

In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round of the presidential elections against Emmanuel Macron. She emerged unequivocally defeated and with an image of incompetence. In the television debate against her opponent, she got lost when discussing issues of substance. She could not go beyond the stereotypical plates. This confirmed that her ideology was hollow, lined with primary ultranationalism, nostalgy of the past, xenophobia and unbridled personal ambition.

She is now preparing for the presidential elections of 2022. A part of the conservative right knows that a new clash between Macron and Le Pen will bring a new defeat. Therefore they have tried to find a more credible alternative, but without achieving it. Marine Le Pen and the local deployment of RN leave no room for such manoeuvres. The face of right-wing extremism remains hers. But after the failure of 2017, she has learned that power is not won in a politically mature society with mere slogans and banalities. In the interview with the Diário de Notícias (10/1/2021), she made it clear that her campaign will focus on four themes - security, immigration, traditional family values and employment. This means that in order to win votes, she will seek to exploit fears and weaknesses, especially the fear of what is foreign, feelings of precariousness and social injustice, as well as prejudices stemming from an old-fashioned view of relations between people.

In essence, the main strategy of Le Pen and all the extremists is to demonise a category of citizens, to create an internal enemy, which becomes the visible and repeated focus of all attacks. In the French case, it is easy to identify this target - the Muslims. They are euphemistically referred to as "immigrants" and concentrate all the fire that the RN brings into combat. To this is added a rhetoric of economic nationalism, which swears to defend the jobs of the French. This is how the slogans against Islam, immigration, globalisation, and strongly anti-EU appear, as well as the flags of patriotism and Western civilisation as understood by the RN. 

It was this dreadful character who came to support the Portuguese "cousin". During her stay, she may have noticed that the Portuguese extremists’ opportunities for growth are practically non-existent. Our nervous extremists lack a social group that can be effectively referred to as a threat to the security of society and the preservation of national culture. Without a target that can generate fear, radical movements do not gain strength. In the absence of serious national fractures, the "Portuguese cousin" had no choice but to focus on the only social group that presents some differences from the generality of citizens. But this group - the Roma community - is not seen by the rest of the Portuguese, despite the existence of images and prejudices that come from far away, as an existential national threat. On the contrary, they are people considered vulnerable and powerless. The truth is that the extremists of the Portuguese right, unlike in other European countries, have little political space, because there is no identity that can be exploited and defined as an enemy.

This does not mean that one should not be attentive. On the contrary. Here, as in the rest of Europe, there will be major social crises in the coming years following the pandemic. And major crises often open the door to the emergence of so-called saviours of the homeland, who, history teaches us, have always sunk it.

 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

Mass immigration as a negotiating tool

Earlier in the day, I was explaining to a local group of futurists that I see Morocco playing little Turkey, on their side of the Mediterranean Sea. They have learned from the Turkish how masses of migrants can be manipulated to put pressure on the European countries. It is happening on the Greek borders, it will be repeated in Libya, now that Erdogan’s troops and armed men are getting stronger in Tripoli and its surroundings. These are the two main migratory routes, and both are now under Turkish control. Is there a better way to be in a robust position when negotiating with the European Union?

The Moroccan are beginning to do the same with Spain and even with Portugal, I guess. In the last couple of months, groups of young men coming from Morocco have arrived by sea at the Southern Portuguese region of Algarve. It is a long sea crossing for their small boats. It is an impossible journey with such fragile vessels. My suspicion is that they get some help from powerful syndicates on the Moroccan shores and that is done under the blind eye of the authorities. Their sponsors might bring them closer to the Portuguese coastline and then let them complete the trip and be perceived as desperate migrants.

This flow has the potential to get bigger. To become route number three for the migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and even from elsewhere.

On the European side, it is about time to start looking at it with greater attention. And, at the same time, to initiate a serious talk with the government in Rabat.

We have a crisis in our hands

In some European countries, today we have reached a turning point. They have adopted very stringent measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic. 

The decisions have nothing to do with President Trump’s harsh words about us, words that were pronounced yesterday, when he was announcing the entry ban on European visitors. 

Today’s measures, adopted in France, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and elsewhere, are just an indication of the level of risk we are confronted with. The pandemic is a major menace, that was the message coming from the different governments. It is huge because nobody knows the dimension it might get, nobody is in a position to guess a timeframe but everyone sees it will have a major impact on human lives, on public resources, on living standards, on lots of economic, financial and social aspects.

In view of that, the preventive measures can only be of an extraordinary nature. Some might seem disproportionate, but who knows what is reasonable or excessive, in a crisis of this dimension?

Mario Soares: a great European

Today, at the age of 92, Mario Soares, the former President and also Prime Minister of Portugal, passed away. He had been a symbol of freedom and democratic values during his days in politics. Furthermore, he was a firm believer in the unity of the European nations. Soares was convinced that Europe can only move into the future if it remains in peace with itself, mutually supportive and united. He was also an excellent example of leadership: unusual, not afraid of speaking his mind, and always connected with the feelings of the majority of the citizens. It is time to honour his memory and exalt his example. 

Portuguese presidential elections

The Portuguese voted yesterday to elect a new Head of State. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a law professor and a TV personality – for many years he commented every Sunday on politics and general affairs on a national news channel and became a household name – was voted in as the next President.

For part of the public opinion he is seen as a moderate right-winger. In fact, he is an open-minded conservative, very liberal in many aspects. In other societies, he would be labelled as a man of the centre-left. Actually, many of those on the Portuguese right would be considered as pretty progressive by the standards of several rightist parties in other countries of Europe. And, in the US, Donald Trump would call them “dangerous leftists”…

Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

The current Portuguese political bet

The leader of the Portuguese Socialist Party, Antonio Costa, lost the general elections on 4 October. After four years of austerity, and conservative arrogance, to lose the elections says a lot about Costa´s political credibility within the general population. But the interesting thing is that Costa has managed, at least for the time-being, to regain the initiative after the elections. I admire that ability.

He has looked to his left and tried to reach an alliance with the far-left, basically a group of urban-based idealists mixed up with modern-day Trotskyists, and also with the Communists. The Communist Party is the last large old-school communist grouping in Western Europe.

It is not yet clear whether Costa will manage to sign an agreement with those two. He believes he will. Basically, he bets on the fact that such triad would be ready to pull together to keep the right wingers out of government.

But a legislative term is a long period of time. Costa knows, I believe, that such an alliance is fragile and will not be able to win the test of time. Sooner or later, and in particular as the economy gets the costly impact of a good set of social measures that are the conditions for the far left to be on board, the agreement might unravel. Costa might think that by that time he will be popular enough to gain the votes he could not get on 4 October. Maybe. Or maybe not.

It is quite a bet and the risks for his party and the country are certainly a matter of concern.

In the circumstances, I can only wish well to the vast majority of the Portuguese.

Portugal: are we moving to the far left?

The Portuguese voted on 4 October for a new parliament. No party got a majority vote. There is a need for a coalition government to ensure stability. And the movement seems to be in the direction of a left of the left alliance, under the leadership of the Socialist Party. If it happens, it will be the first of its kind since 1975. And it would be a major shift in the national politics of the country. 

End of summer break

I am back from my summer break. Back from 15 days in a village in Southern Portugal. Two weeks spent among elder people as old folks make now most of the residents in rural areas. And a period to learn again the virtues of simplicity, frugality and the ability to make do with whatever is available

Diversity is a new feature within the EU

Immigration keeps changing the face of Europe. Even in this corner of the EU called Portugal. We have now people that have come from other countries within the EU as well as people that travelled to us from afar. Every day I discover, in the vicinity of my residence, someone that came from a foreign land to work in Portugal.

This is a new reality and people have adjusted to it, in some countries better than in others. But there are serious risks of violent rejection as well.

In the end, the bottom line is about respect and tolerance. Mutual tolerance, of course, from both sides. And also about making sure that opportunistic politicians do not take advantage of immigration issues to create societal divisions and conflicts. They are actually the greatest danger in societies that have a good number of immigrants. 

EU is meeting the Latin American States

As I am about to witness another summit meeting in Brussels, this time with Latin American leaders, I also realise that Latin America does not feature high in terms of the EU priorities. As such, I wonder what will come out of such meeting. Is it more than a mere diplomatic move?

In the meantime, I take note that the EU-Latin America consultation will be immediately followed by a summit with Mexico. And again, I am curious about the possible outcome of that conference.

In any case, enhanced relations with Latin America will give leverage to Spain´s position with the EU. Somehow, Portugal will gain a bit as well. That’s not a bad thing as it contributes to a greater balance between the different nations in Europe. 

Near Lisbon there is plenty to visit

As I drove around the greater Lisbon area I came to the conclusion that there are still many places near the Portuguese capital that are of great interest for a visitor. They should be better talked about. Sintra and Cascais are well known. They attract a good number of foreign visitors.  But there are other places, such as Ericeira by the sea or Mafra and its convent and rural landscapes that good be better publicised. Including for their cuisine and the variety of the landscapes.

Tourism is very much about the way you talk about your region. It is also about making sure you offer quality at a reasonable price. And it is nowadays, during the off-season, about being able to catch the attention of the retirees from elsewhere. They are a very important segment of the market during the low season. Things need to be organised to cater for their interests. 

An Indian face in Europe´s politics

The Portuguese Socialist Party has a new leader: António Costa, the current mayor of Lisbon. On Sunday he won the party´s nomination by an overwhelming majority of the votes. He was running against the outgoing Secretary-General of the party, António José Seguro, and received the support of more than two-thirds of the voters. The mandate is clear. And the level of hope invested on him as well.

On the father´s side, António Costa has his family roots in Goa, India. His election places him in a very good position to be the next Prime-minister of Portugal, by next year´s autumn. To have a Prime-minister that is of Indian origin shows how much Portugal and Europe´s ethnicity mix has changed and keeps changing. This is the new Europe, built on old nations and new immigrants. This is also a Europe that has to adjust to a more globalised world.

In my opinion it is good news to open up. We Europeans need to have a much broader view of ourselves and of our position in the affairs of the world. It is not just about being more tolerant. It is also about getting a better grasp about the world´s diversity and how to insert ourselves in an international reality that has changed and will continue to change at a very high speed. 

Portugal could have been brought down by a single man

Ricardo Salgado, the top man at the Portuguese bank Banco Espírito Santo (BES) had been called by his countrymen the “owner of everything”. He was indeed a very influential fellow. Now, it has been concluded that his bank was in shambles and that the gentleman, who had friends in almost every corner of the political, economic and academic elite chessboards, was about to bring the Portuguese economy down, not just his bank and business empire. His business interests were wide and covered several sectors. The misjudgments, the malpractices and the cover-ups have therefore a very wide impact. The true measure of this collapse is yet to be fully grasped. For the time being, only the bank side of the story has been safeguarded. But an initial lesson that can be learned from this saga is that when a banker is also a major business actor, in a relatively small economy, things can go very wrong. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future. 

The waters of West Africa

The security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea are a new opportunity to promote cooperation between the key African States of the region, including Nigeria and Angola. They are also being used to enhance the political relations between those countries and States from outside the region. Brazil is one of those States. The US, of course, is particularly interested. And within the EU, Portugal has been a front player in terms of advancing the partnership agenda between Europe and West Africa.

My advice is that the partnership has to deal with fisheries protection – which key for the economy of the coastal populations of the region – as much as it deals with piracy and freedom of navigation. This dual approach is the only sustainable way forward. Without fishing the livelihood possibilities in the region will shrink further. And the illegal activities will be seen by many young people as one of the very few doors to remain open. 

Portuguese Socialist Party is like wildfire

Politics is not for the faint of heart. You cannot be afraid of fire. And you have to be in the kitchen all the time but also keep an eye on the outside yard. Nobody is going to give you an easy time, if you are a personality in politics.

In Portugal, the leader of the Socialist Party is getting that message. His party was the number one on Sunday European elections. But with less than 32% of the votes the Socialists were not far ahead from the governing coalition, with their 28% share. It was a tiny victory.

The party´s internal opposition to the current leader moved fast. On Tuesday their main figurehead, the mayor of Lisbon, was out in the media, to announce he was ready to fight for the party´s leadership and take over from the current secretary-general. The latter was not specially amused by such a move. In particular because he had signed, last year, a peace agreement with the Lisbon mayor, the same fellow that has now decided to challenge him. Furthermore, he learned about the challenge through the media.

The mayor is playing some big cards within the party, including Mario Soares, the party´s founder and godfather. The current Secretary-general, on his side, is playing the rules. His point is that is mandate is not over, that the statutes do not foresee a change at this time. The rules are indeed clear.

But in party politics the rules book changes pretty often. Like wildfires. They go with the direction of the wind. 

Lisbon and the cruise ships

Lisbon is now a major stop in the itinerary of the cruise ships that navigate this corner of Europe. At this time of the year, it is usual to see two or three big vessels by the tourist harbour. Today they were six, all very large.

This daily influx of visitors is bringing some much need vitality to the centre of the city, lots of people with some euros to spend. It also gives the key monumental areas a strong sense of economic dynamism. And that is deeply appreciated, particularly at a time when many Portuguese try to move out of a morose approach to the crisis and be able to access new sources of income.