President
Putin believes he will be in a stronger position after the Crimean referendum
on Sunday. He knows that the result will be favourable to those who advocate
the integration of the Peninsula in the Russian Federation. This is not a very
difficult guess as many of those who oppose it will be intimidated and will
stay away of the polling stations. But he is wrong to believe this will
strength his hand. This will give additional weight to all those in the West
that keep saying we shouldn´t cooperate and trust the current Kremlin
leadership. And these people will push for less dependency of Russia´s natural
resources and markets. For less economic links as well. They will stress that
alternatives do exist. And that will be a strong trend in the next few years.
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