Brexit,
again! At this stage, I see no strong reason for the EU leaders to accept a
short time extension of Article 50. The legal exit date is 29 March. An
extension can only be granted if it is grounded on a well-defined reason. Seen
from Brussels, the best reason would be to give time to the British institutions
to approve the additional legislation that would regulate the different aspects
of an orderly exit. That would basically mean the exit deal should be passed by
the UK Parliament before 29 March. If that is not the case,
the Brexit matter should be put to a new popular vote. And then the choice
would be between the deal, as signed off by the Prime Minister, or no Brexit.
The No Deal option is too catastrophic. It should not be in the ballot paper.
The
scheduling of a new referendum – the popular vote mentioned above – would be
the only reasonable justification for the EU heads to accept an extension.
However,
I do not see much of a chance for a new people’s vote on Brexit. The political
conditions are not there. The new approach by the Labour party in favour of a
referendum comes too late to be of any value.
Thus,
the realistic option is to fight for a yes vote in Westminster. That would
approve the existing draft deal. With maybe one or two appended sentences, that
would give the tough MPs within Theresa May’s party an excuse to change their
opinion and vote for it. However, such approval must happen in the next two
weeks. It’s late in the day, but still within a manageable time frame. Beyond
that period, if there is no clarification, one can only expect a much higher
level of confusion, including within the Conservative party. And a serious
impact on the daily lives of many.
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