Post-Brexit optimism

I think it is too early to be worried about the future of the European Union’s relationship with the United Kingdom. We are now at the beginning of the transition period. Its duration is not long, I agree, but I also see that both sides will try to reach some sort of agreement before the end of it, before end of December. The posturing we are witnessing today is part of the negotiating tactics. But both sides will be under serious pressure from the respective business communities. They do not want to rock the boat. The economic and trade ties are strong. They should remain strong. Besides that, we share the same geopolitical space and that should be an encouragement for cooperation. Even a fool can understand that.  

Brexit means additional fragility for both sides

Competition between nations opens the door to conflict and even war. Cooperation leads the way to progress and peace. That should be the message on this Brexit day.

And we should also keep in mind that our adversaries and even some of Europe’s allies would prefer us to be fragmented and disunited.  

The new Boris Johnson

I do not see the world the way Boris Johnson does. But I accept he is a great political campaigner, someone who knows that in today’s complex world people want simple messages to be put across and a clear show of determination. He did both. And he won, a huge victory by all means. He has five years of power in front of him. Let’s see if he is as good at exercising it as he has been at canvassing for it.

He will govern a very divided country. His choices are clear: either he keeps deepening the sharp split or he opts for a moderate route that can make a good part of the opposition feel comfortable with his governance. I think he knows the latter is the only way forward. He cannot contribute to the augmentation of the political divide; he cannot ignore those who want to keep a close relationship with the European Union. That includes the Scottish people.

The United Kingdom must keep a strong link with the EU. Boris Johnson is smart enough to understand that and strong enough, within his party, to impose such a political line. The only question mark is about his balance: will he be wise enough to seek a compromise with the EU? I don’t know. And I am afraid he might not have that kind of wisdom. He might fall into the old trap that makes British people believe they are better than their neighbours. That would be a serious mistake. Let’s hope it will not happen.

British general elections

It is still to early to know the outcome of the British elections. It will be inappropriate to try to guess the results, a couple of hours before the closing of the polling stations. Better wait for the headlines and the details tomorrow morning. Whatever comes out of the voting, it will have a major impact on the UK and, in some ways, in the rest of Europe. These are no ordinary elections. And many, particularly the younger people, got to understand it.

If you fail, try blackmail

When political bullying fails, the fellows try blackmail. The French call it “chantage”. That’s what some Brexit hardliners have been suggesting this weekend. They recommend that the Boris Johnson government sabotages the work of the EU institutions, if his deal proposal is not accepted and he is forced to ask for an extension. In their lunacy, they have even advised Boris Johnson to appoint Nigel “Crackpot” Farage as the British Commissioner in Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission. They see Farage as the Chief Disruptor.

All this is childish. And it is also amazing to see some sectors of the British Conservative Party falling so low. Their anti-European fanaticism makes them politically blind. It blocks their minds and impedes them from understanding that cooperation and mutual benefit are the only winning cards. Radical Conservatives just keep moving away from the traditional British common sense.

Her Majesty's Opposition: some questions

Where is the UK Opposition? What is their counterplan? Why have they lost the political initiative?

These are my questions this morning.

Boris Johnson's weird proposal

The plan the British Prime Minister sent to Brussels today, regarding a withdrawal agreement with the EU, is a construction in the air. It’s not grounded on realistic operational premises, meaning, it is unclear in terms of its day-to-day implementation. And it plays with words and images, basically to show to the British voters this plan is different from the one Theresa May had agreed upon. It is not about substance and cooperation, it is about personal ambition and party politics in the UK. 

The EU leaders are not convinced. However, they played smart in their reactions to Boris Johnson’s proposal. They said they would look at it with the required attention. That’s a diplomatic way of saying we are not convinced but do not want to kill hope right away. Brussels does not want to give the British PM any chance that would allow him to blame the EU for a No Deal situation. It is true he will blame in any case, but without any definitive proof. 

Besides the confusing lines, the plan was presented almost like an ultimatum from the British side to the European one. That is not very smart. Key leaders in Europe will take such approach as an affront. Politically, Boris Johnson's tone calls for a response that might further complicate the Brexit issue. This is no time for “take it or leave it”, as the PM is saying. That is unwise, but not surprising as Boris Johnson is more interested in impressing the British nationalists than in finding a solution to his country’s future relationship with Europe. He is already campaigning. The bizarre Brexit plan he submitted today is part and parcel of his electoral strategy. Not much more than that.

The rule of law in the UK

Today’s ruling by the UK Supreme Court is about law and the respect by everyone, including the country’s Prime Minister, of the constitutional arrangements that define the exercise of executive power. It was a legal decision. And it must be seen as such. The Supreme Court unanimously decided that the Prime Minister’s prorogation of Parliament was unlawful and therefore void and of no effect.

The initial reaction of some of Boris Johnson’s unconditional supporters, including in the media – The Telegraph is just an example – was to say that the Court’s decision was political. That the eleven Supreme Judges were just taking the side of the Remainers. Later in the day that kind of incendiary opinion disappeared from the front pages and was also deftly abandoned by the extreme Brexiteers that were invited to comment. Someone had realised that to criticise the Supreme Court with political rhetoric would backfire. That was the second victory of the day for the rule of law.

Boris Johnson and his disastrous politics

A few brief comments on tonight's vote in the British Parliament.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a major humiliation. It was not just a defeat. It should be seen as the confirmation that his strategy – the one that is designed by his Special Advisor, Dominic Cummings, and the PM implements – is not keeping his own camp together. Twenty-one members of his Tory Party voted against him, notwithstanding all the promises he made and, above all, the political threats he mouthed against them. Twenty-one is a big number and most of them are very senior people with a long public career.  

The Prime Minister has shown that his understanding of the British system of democracy is not far from the one followed by Vladimir Putin and other birds of the same feather. He sees his fellow party parliamentarians as just yes-men. They are not allowed any freedom of choice. In his opinion, they are at Westminster to vote for the PM, and that’s all.

The opposition must ride on tonight’s vote and present Boris Johnson in negative colours: under the spell of mischievous Cummings; following a blind approach to a catastrophic Brexit, for ideological reasons, with no respect for facts and the civil service advice; undemocratic and deeply authoritarian; unprepared for the job of unifying the country; and a frenzied liar. Those should be the lines of attack during the coming days and weeks.

Boris and his master play hard ball

Dominic Cummings, who is Boris Johnson’s high priest for strategy – officially, his title is Senior Advisor to the PM – knows very well that in war it is vital to regain the initiative. To win one must master the plan and the action.

Yesterday, the opposition and all those who are against a No Deal Brexit had reached an accord that could threaten the PM’s political future. They got the ball and the agenda. That was a major menace to Boris’s power. Today, that same group lost it, thanks to Cummings and his pupil. The suspension of parliamentary work decided by Boris Johnson surprised his opponents and destabilised their game plan. That’s how strategy is played by the big people.

But the game is not over. Today’s move has infuriated many Tory MPs that were sitting on the fence. They might find the courage to pay back. That must happen in the next few days and before the end of coming week. If it does, Cummings’ canny advice to Boris might end up by backfiring. The stakes are higher than ever.

We will see.

No Deal, soon in a street near you

31 October is not too far away. But it is far enough for us to be able to say what is going to happen to the UK’s Brexit. However, it should be clear, at this stage, that the No Deal is very likely. If, in the end, we get to that point, it is obvious that the relations between the EU and the UK will reach a very low point. It will take a lot of time to recover from such a fall. And that will also have an impact on other forms of cooperation between the two sides. It will certainly be, if it happens, a most defining moment in the history of modern Europe.

Boris Johnson is in charge

From a diplomatic perspective, the European leaders can only wish every success to Boris Johnson. He won the leadership of his Conservative Party and the British political tradition makes him the next Prime Minister.

This is not a very easy time for the UK, as the country is more divided than ever and must make some very decisive choices. Johnson knows that. His initial steps are particularly important. Above all, the way he approaches the European Union. If he tries the impossible, and a different type of Withdrawal Agreement, based on fantasy, he might end up by stepping into the abyss. I am sure he is aware of that and does not want his premiership to be tainted by economic distress and domestic constitutional crisis. By failure, in a word.

We will see.

In the meantime, the Labour Party is also facing some serious difficulties. Jeremy Corbyn is less and less able to respond to the major challenges the UK is confronted with. Time is defeating him. Now, he must find a sharper way of defining his party’s position. During the next few weeks all the attentions will be focused on the way he responds to the Boris Johnson Cabinet’s initiatives. That’s not a very comfortable position. The one who takes the initiative, if he is smart, is always ahead of the game. To try to catch up – that will be Corbyn’s most likely approach – is not good enough. Corbyn and his party must go beyond responding and be prepared to come up with striking ideas. They must re-capture the people’s attention. That’s not easy when on the other side is standing someone like Johnson.  

Boris Johnson, you said?

Something must be dramatically wrong with the Conservative Party. Why do I say it? Because I see that its key members believe that the only way to beat an unsophisticated politician like Jeremy Corbyn is to elect as party leader Boris Johnson.

They know that Boris is an incurious, lazy, dilettante, person. His intellectual arrogance is also obvious. It is based on his shallow approach to politics, to the important issues, and on his narcissism.

To think that he might become the next UK Prime Minister, despite all those shortcomings, is startling. It indeed says a lot about the state of disarray within the Conservatives. And, in many ways, about the lack of realism in some segments of the British public opinion.

Post May's politics

Theresa May has announced her resignation. The extremists within her party did everything they could to get her out. For these hard Brexiteers, the Prime Minister was too close to the EU. They hated her – yes, hate is the right word – for that. They are convinced that the UK is much smarter than the EU altogether and that Queen Victoria will come back, certainly under a new shape, and make Britain imperial again.

There is no rational way of dealing with those hardliners. It is all about emotions, British grandeur, and delusion. When that is the case, the best approach is to let them take care of their own business.

And wish them well. Particularly to the new Prime Minister, whoever that might be. He or she will need the good wishes of all of us. Plenty of them.

For us, the point is to let them know we would prefer a negotiated departure, as proposed in the Withdrawal Agreement. That’s the wise way to move to the next stage, as good neighbours. If that is not possible, because of the British political divisions, they still need to honour the commitments made up to the day of departure. There is no way they can forgo that. It is a legal obligation that must be clear to them and fully respected. The opposite would make the future relationship much more tense.

Brexit, May and Corbyn

Theresa May’s Brexit agreement is still the second-best option for both the UK and the EU. The Prime Minister knows it and I admire her persistence and political courage. Contrary to what many might say, this is not about stubbornness. It is about conviction and wisdom. 

The first-best option would have been a new referendum on the relationship with Europe. But that is now out of the equation, unless there is a political miracle.

The Labour Party’s leader carries a good deal of the responsibility for the missed opportunity of a people’s vote. He has not been clear. Some politicians believe they know how to swim in muddy waters. 

I guess historians will be much nicer to Theresa May than the current conservative media is.

As far as Jeremy Corbyn is concerned, he might become Prime Minister in the foreseeable future. That will be the lucky turn of the irony dice. Not surprising in an extremely confused political landscape.

Politics has a good lot of ironic turns these days.  

Full respect for the British people

In the UK, those Conservative opinion-makers who are unconditionally for Brexit want their readers to believe the EU leaders do not respect the British democratic system and, above all, most of the British people.

That message is false. It is just biased propaganda to justify their own personal frenzy for Brexit.

Brexit might be a major mistake, in terms of its negative consequences for both the UK and the EU. Those fellows know it. But they have a very strong ideological position about it. The extreme Conservatives believe they can gain lots of political leverage if they mine the nationalist feelings that led many citizens to vote for the exit.

That’s what makes such opinion writers tick.

The truth is however very different. In the rest of the EU, the leaders and intellectuals that really matter respect whatever in the end the British will decide about their future links with the European space. We recognise the UK’s right to decide. And there are two more political dimensions we should keep repeating. First, the EU does not want to humiliate the people of the UK and their political establishment. Second, we recognise the evidence that shows that Brexit weakens the UK and the EU. It is bad for both sides.  

Brexit is in town

Brexit night, again, here in Brussels. Theresa May wants a short postponement of her country’s Brexit date. That is certainly something that would make sense, now that her government and the Labour Party are engaged in talks. EU leaders could wait for those talks to conclude, be it that in the end there is no agreement between the two sides. The position could stand as a recognition of the merit of such talks, an invitation for a national decision on a matter that is of crucial importance to the British nation.

That would be my position in today’s summit meeting. Such position would give the UK Prime Minister some political strength, at a time when she is very weak, it would show respect to her and it could be supported by the European public opinion.

Wishing the British good fortune

The key European leaders and all those who have a balanced approach to opinion-making here in Brussels and other capitals have no intention of humiliating the British politicians. Moreover, as neighbours and because we share the same values and so many aspects of our European history, we also have a great respect for the British people.

Nobody wants to see a weaker, divided UK in the future. Such view would be an absolute foolishness.

I am sure Theresa May understands all that.

Brexit's new cards

Some people are saying that PM Theresa May’s statement, made this evening, is more of the same. I disagree. It is not. Cabinet did not spend seven hours discussing the matter for nothing.

The Prime Minister´s words are very clear.

First, there is no way she will preside over a No Deal Brexit. That is a key message. She understands the immense negative impact of such an avenue and might have been able to convince enough people in her Cabinet that such an option cannot be seriously considered. She might be very stubborn, but she is no fool. And she is determined in her opposition to a No Deal. I appreciate that.

Second, she has finally accepted she needs to reach an agreement with the Labour Party. That is also an important step forward. And she seems ready to give it a try. I appreciate the move.

Third, the most plausible option could now be the approval of her Withdrawal Agreement (WA) followed by a confirmatory referendum. Or, just the taking of the WA to the voters. That would also be the best option. The second best would be the approval of the WA in Westminster coupled with the endorsement by Parliament of a revised Political Declaration that would point in the direction of a customs union.

Things could be moving fast in the next few days.

#Brexit, what a crazy idea

Brexit. Leave. Leave might be a question of opinion. Fine! But it has become obvious it is a sinister, and above all, stupid opinion.