Sunday, 26 July 2020

The future of China's global influence


In the race for dominance, China believes they have time on their side. They know they have the population numbers and that their economy will become as powerful as the American in about twenty years or so. They also count of their centralised and therefore more coherent approach to foreign relations. They think that political changes, party hesitations and the plurality of interests play against the US and its influence in the world. All in all, the Chinese have a more optimistic view of their future influence in the world.

I would agree but for one thing. The Chinese leaders will have to keep an authoritarian control over their population. And that might not be possible in the future. They will insist on Chinese pride and nationalistic views as much as they will try to keep improving the living standards. Is that going to be enough? I am in two minds. I see it as possible, particularly with the generalised use of digital control systems and a strong emphasis on nationalistic propaganda. But I am also convinced that the new generations might be much keener on freedom of opinion and less inclined to accept the authority of the Communist Party than their parents or grandparents.

If one wants to challenge the global influence of the Chinese leaders one must invest in keeping the country’s youth informed about what is going on in those countries where democracy is a central value.

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