The initial comments about the Hong Kong elections

Three points about today’s local elections in Hong Kong. One, it is about the very impressive voter turnout. People participated in the election in very large numbers. The turnout is 71.2 per cent of the registered voters. Much higher than the one in 2015, which reached 47 per cent. Two, it is about the tranquillity of the day. There was no unrest, no confusion either during the vote or in the evening, as the papers were counted, and the first results announced. Three, initial results show that the pro-democracy candidates are gaining most of the seats. That will be a major blow to the Hong Kong Chief Minister. But, above all, to the Communist leaders in Beijing.

Again, the events as they happen in Hong Kong raise major issues about what next in China.

A brief commentary on Hong Kong

Fourteen weeks after the beginning of the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong and notwithstanding the growing chaos, and violence, Beijing still looks at the situation as a local problem. The Communist leaders do not see any risk of contagion, either in Macau or in any Mainland big city. That explains why they have decided to let the Hong Kong authorities – and above all, the Police – deal with the crisis. It is true that the city authorities have not been very artful or politically astute. But for the time being, Beijing is convinced that the Chief Executive and her people should be the crisis managers. That’s a way of sending the message that this is not a wider problem.

Beijing has also been actively promoting its narrative of what is taking place in Hong Kong. They tell the Mainlanders that these are just some youngsters who are encouraged by outside powers to break the law and rebel against the established system of government. They show on the Chinese TV the scenes of violence and destruction, as a way of discrediting the protesters.

Beijing hopes the protest movement will die out, after a few more weeks or so. They are also betting on the impact that mass arrests might have in terms of discouraging the crowds.

I am not sure Beijing is getting the full understanding of what is taking place in Hong Kong. The protests are deeper than what the leaders think. One of the reasons for Police ineffectiveness in dealing with the demonstrations resides in the widespread support the demonstrators get from the general population of Hong Kong. The young people are on the streets but most of the older people are not against the street actions. This makes it a very distinctive case, when I compare it to other riots I have studied.

Hong Kong people send strong messages

A huge crowd rallied today in Hong Kong. Its size has sent a strong message to Mainland China. The pro-democracy movement is deeply rooted in the Hong Kong society. It can’t be addressed with militarised police coming from the other side of the border line. And there is a second message, as pressing as the first one: Carrie Lam, the Chief Minister, and her governing team must be replaced. They have no capacity to respond to the complex challenges the territory is facing, from democracy to housing, and beyond. Also, they have lost the confidence of large segments of the population.

Crossing the line in Hong Kong

The key messages the Chinese government wants to put across are very clear: the demonstrators are violent; they have disrupted the operations of a key international airport for two days in a row; and brought chaos to the territory. In the opinion of the leadership in Beijing, such messages are essential to justify an armed intervention of Mainland forces in Hong Kong. Their content is further reinforced by the image of a powerless Hong Kong Administration. It is true that Carrie Lam, the HK Chief Executive, seems to have lost the sense of direction. She now cuts a very sorry figure. But in the case of the HK Police, I see a deliberate Beijing move behind the erratic tactics the Police is following. The aim is to show that the territory’s Police are out of their depth. And that would be another strong justification for Mainland to cross the border line.

The odds of an intervention are now very high. Any further escalation of the crisis, and the Mainland boots will walk around the Victoria Harbour.