Take example from Asia

In the combat against the coronavirus, Europe should learn from the experiences of China, South Korea and Macau. They were confronted with huge challenges and have found the way to respond to them. They based their responses on massive lockdowns, extensive testing and social isolation for everyone. In the case of China, the approach was complemented by building new hospitals in incredibly short periods of time and the mobilisation of every possible resource to produce simple intensive care equipment, protection medical suits, and the appropriate masks. In all three cases, the success was a combination of extreme civic discipline with the right type of hospital treatment.

Europe is now at the door of major expansion of the disease. It should be ready to coordinate its response. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. But, at least, it should keep as many people out of the public space as possible, for a small number of weeks. It would see the difference.

Unfortunately, many people have not yet grasped the intensity of the menace. The leaders should be frank about it. They should use the right words to explain the possible impact of the disease. To say that they do not want to contribute to alarmism is not an acceptable response. Europeans can handle hard truths if they are told the full story. It is my conviction that the leaders need to agree on a common European-wide discourse about COVID-19 and talk to the citizens based on that agreed music sheet. A lot of the success has to do with people’s behaviour. They should be told what the consequences of good or bad behaviour are.

A brief commentary on Hong Kong

Fourteen weeks after the beginning of the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong and notwithstanding the growing chaos, and violence, Beijing still looks at the situation as a local problem. The Communist leaders do not see any risk of contagion, either in Macau or in any Mainland big city. That explains why they have decided to let the Hong Kong authorities – and above all, the Police – deal with the crisis. It is true that the city authorities have not been very artful or politically astute. But for the time being, Beijing is convinced that the Chief Executive and her people should be the crisis managers. That’s a way of sending the message that this is not a wider problem.

Beijing has also been actively promoting its narrative of what is taking place in Hong Kong. They tell the Mainlanders that these are just some youngsters who are encouraged by outside powers to break the law and rebel against the established system of government. They show on the Chinese TV the scenes of violence and destruction, as a way of discrediting the protesters.

Beijing hopes the protest movement will die out, after a few more weeks or so. They are also betting on the impact that mass arrests might have in terms of discouraging the crowds.

I am not sure Beijing is getting the full understanding of what is taking place in Hong Kong. The protests are deeper than what the leaders think. One of the reasons for Police ineffectiveness in dealing with the demonstrations resides in the widespread support the demonstrators get from the general population of Hong Kong. The young people are on the streets but most of the older people are not against the street actions. This makes it a very distinctive case, when I compare it to other riots I have studied.

Crossing the line in Hong Kong

The key messages the Chinese government wants to put across are very clear: the demonstrators are violent; they have disrupted the operations of a key international airport for two days in a row; and brought chaos to the territory. In the opinion of the leadership in Beijing, such messages are essential to justify an armed intervention of Mainland forces in Hong Kong. Their content is further reinforced by the image of a powerless Hong Kong Administration. It is true that Carrie Lam, the HK Chief Executive, seems to have lost the sense of direction. She now cuts a very sorry figure. But in the case of the HK Police, I see a deliberate Beijing move behind the erratic tactics the Police is following. The aim is to show that the territory’s Police are out of their depth. And that would be another strong justification for Mainland to cross the border line.

The odds of an intervention are now very high. Any further escalation of the crisis, and the Mainland boots will walk around the Victoria Harbour.

In Macau

I have been in Macau for a few days. And the more I know about this Special Administrative Region the more I appreciate its dynamism and charm.

Macau´s total area is certainly small but its business districts are pretty diverse and worth the walk. I also found a number of new “avant-garde” boutiques, including some with very creative pieces of art on display. They tell us that Macau is more than just a good number of extravagantly huge casinos.

Moreover, the University institutions are now very well established. They do attract quite a number of students from Mainland and beyond.