The new EU Commission

The new European Commission top team, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been approved by the Members of the European Parliament. They are now ready to start their five-year mandate. I can only hope they will be able to respond to the challenges ahead and remain credible.

The challenges are many. For me, the most important one concerns the unity of Europe. This is an area that is under attack, both from inside and from some of our neighbours, allies or foes. Therefore, it must be protected and strengthened. The Commission must keep reminding all of us of our common destiny as Europeans. It’s about unity within diversity, as a German person is certainly different, in many aspects, from a Portuguese. But both and all share the same fundamental values of human rights, fairness and dignity. All want to see the European streets kept safe, the rural areas protected, the equality between boys and girls promoted, and ensure that the older citizens feel tranquil and enjoy a dignified end of life. It’s also about the beef, of course. By promoting the European unity, the Commission is supporting a balanced economic growth and job security. In a context of sustainability, which means a lot on terms of addressing the urgency of the climate crisis.

I wish the new team well.

The new European leadership team

On international affairs, the new European leadership team will have to deal with an interesting deck of cards. I mean the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the US Donald Trump, the very strategic Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, the unreliable Boris Johnson in the UK, just to mention some of them. I could add Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu in Israel, if he survives the next round of elections, Nicolás Maduro, and so on. That is a most unique scenario that is waiting for them. The international scene shows all the signs of a perfect storm. And I am not mentioning the tricky situation around Iran, a major epicentre of a potential catastrophe. 

On the domestic front, within the EU space, they will be confronting Matteo Salvini, the strong man in Italy, Viktor Orbán and his neighbours in the Czech Republic and Poland, political instability in Belgium, Spain and Romania, as well as lots of pressure to move faster in areas that divide the European nations, such as the common defence, the climate emergency, the Brexit negotiations, and the pivot to Africa.

This is a most challenging environment. It requires a very strong and united leadership team. Not easy, not easy at all for a team that comes to power almost by chance. Let’s keep watching how strong and determined the new team is.

Travelling and the EU game

I travelled quite a bit during the last four days or so. Travelling is essential to see the reality for ourselves. It’s the other side of reading. They complement each other. But more effectively than reading, travelling feeds the imagination, which is a major tool for transformation.

And talking about transformation, during these days four people were nominated to take over leadership positions at the European Union’s key institutions. There are a few comments that can be made about the choices made. I will share mine soonest.

But I would like to suggest that the decisions have shown the trend that has defined the EU during the last ten years or so. The Heads of State and Government are the real force, for good or for worse, behind the EU machinery. That basically means, among other things, that the decisions are taken mainly to respond to the overriding concern of keeping the balance between the interests of the major States or geopolitical blocks. It is the game of national agendas and petty powers that is played by the key actors, not the ambition to have a common future and build it together. That behaviour is certainly not very promising

I see the EU Council as positive

The European Council could not reach an agreement on nominations to the big positions. The decision is particularly difficult when it comes to agree on Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor.

The European political scene is divided, and no political group is strong enough to get its candidate through. Alliances and balancing acts are required. And those things take time to achieve.

I do not share the view of those who think the European Council meeting was a disaster. For me, it was an opportunity to clarify the different national interests and the personal dimensions of each possible candidate. They are now much clearer and that should allow Donald Tusk to come up with a combination of names that could meet the calls for fairness, geographical balance, experience, political diversity and gender equality.

The Heads of State and Government that made disparaging remarks after this Council meeting must be reminded that leadership requires maturity, capacity to negotiate in good faith and patience. European construction is not a straight line. And it is not about fulfilling the demands coming from the so-called big countries. It is a consensus project. That is the only source of its strength.

Brexit: time to move on

Brexit is taking too much of EU leaders’ attention and energy. It’s time to sort it out, to have enough clarity about the direction to follow and then move on. There are many other issues that require top attention. Including an assessment of what remains to be achieved as the current leadership ends their mandates and a definition of what should be the goals for the next cycle. Being clear about those goals could allow for a more substantive campaign for the European elections of May this year. It would bring the debate to a higher level. The candidates must be questioned about their responses to the key challenges. Beyond, well beyond, Brexit. 

The image issue

The EU Commission should demonstrate they are in charge, in those matters they have authority to take decisions. And it should also be able to show a couple of positive actions. Both are urgent. The image remains the main battle field and it is deteriorating. That calls for a major change.

Oettinger has lost his authority

Last week, the EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger made some racist and noticeably stupid remarks during a public formal address to German business people. This was not his first encounter with arrogant foolishness. But this time he had targeted an official Chinese delegation, the gay community as well as the political leadership of Wallonia, in Belgium. That makes too many important targets.

As his remarks became known, through the social media, the man himself became a major embarrassment to the EU Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker felt compelled to advise his Commissioner that an apology was needed. Oettinger finally came out with a statement that he sees as a regret.

That´s not enough. These are trying times for the EU institutions. We expect the people in charge of the institutions to respond to the highest standards required for public office. Oettinger should be told to go. Discreetly but firmly. That´s the only way to deal with the jokers. The only way to properly lead the EU and re-establish its authority. 

The 2016 G7 Summit is over

This year´s G7 Summit, just completed in Japan, made no history. It was hardly noticed by the European public opinion, just to mention those close to home. Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission President made some brief references to the steel dispute with China, on top of mentioning that the European economy is now much better than in 2008 and that it is moving in a healthy direction. Well, that´s good to know. Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, said a couple of things as well, but no one remembers a word of it. And that was basically the European side of the story, because Merkel, Hollande and Renzi were too concerned about their own domestic problems to be able to fly higher than their national contexts.

Moreover, there was a small number of heads of State from non-G7 countries at the tail end of the summit. They were certainly very happy to sit with the big people and be part of the group picture. But their contribution to the discussions remains unclear. Most likely, to them as well.

Poland is adding new challenges to the EU

Poland´s new political situation, with the Law and Justice Party (PiS) as the governing force, was the top headline in today´s Le Monde. The French newspaper, a reference daily for many in Europe, focussed its analysis and comments on the PiS-supported government´s efforts to take control of the Constitutional Court of Poland and on its very conservative, nationalistic and authoritarian political agenda. It also made reference to the new approach being followed in Warsaw towards the EU. That approach is certainly perceived as not very constructive and is clearly clashing with the policies adopted by the EU institutions and most of the member states.

Poland´s new leaders will bring additional challenges in 2016 to the European project. There was no need for that addition. But it has to be taken into account as the country is an important player within the Union.

Greece´s poker game

The Greek government is playing hard ball. They are convinced, I guess, that in the end the EU creditors will do whatever it takes to keep Greece within the Eurozone. And their poker hand is based on that assumption.

It´s a risky position. Athens might know more than we know about the concessions the other Europeans could possibly be ready to accept. But I am not sure they know. They just take the chance and hope to be right, that´s what I believe.

At this stage it is difficult to forecast the events of next week or so. We are certainly close to a clarification. And that moment of truth might be a difficult one for the Greek people. 

UK elections bring bad news to the EU

The initial exit polls show that David Cameron will continue to lead the UK as Prime Minister. If this is indeed confirmed, it will be challenging news for the EU project. Cameron will have to go ahead with the referendum on Europe, as promised. Such vote will not take place before the end of 2017. That would mean two years of uncertainty and serious British pressure on the EU institutions to try to force them to backpedal on a good number of decisions that have been adopted to promote greater coherence in Europe. These will certainly be two difficult years for those in Brussels and elsewhere who believe that Europe is by far the best option for a brighter future.

Juncker´s challenge

Jean-Claude Juncker has won the vote at the European Parliament. He managed to get the support of a very large grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left MEPs. The way he addressed them was consistent with the process he led up to this day: being smart, saying the things that are mainstream, and paying attention to those who matter. He lost little time on extremists, on anti-EU MEPs, on all those that would vote in any case against him. His vast European experience gave him a strong advantage as well. He knows the issues better than any of the deputies in the EU Parliament.

His mandate will start on November 1. The expectations of the EU citizens are pretty low at the moment. Therefore, Juncker starts from a favourable ground. He just needs to adopt, sooner after taking office, one or two actions that could be perceived by the Europeans as new, a change.

But his time in office will run through a difficult time for the EU. The challenges ahead are immense. Maybe the biggest one will be to keep the Union together. Today more than ever the future on the EU is at risk. His experience might be of great help in trying to achieve the required and missing cohesiveness.

   

Juncker, yes, for the EU Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker might not be a new face in the EU block. But he is an experienced and safe pair of hands. And a serious man. As leader of the most voted EU political family he should be the next President of the European Commission. He needs the support of the heads of State and government, as he also requires the votes of the socialist group. That should be possible. The Socialists could see their leader, Martin Schulz, also a very able man even if not as experience as Juncker, take a key position in the Commission as compensation. Or reward him by keeping him as President of the European Parliament, a job he has done well.

Not to appoint Juncker would give the EU voters another reason to lose faith in the European elections.

There is, of course, the problem called David Cameron. He seems to have said that Juncker´s appointment would force him to move the date of the British referendum on Europe forward, to an earlier date. And he added that the British would vote then against the EU. Maybe. But in any case, the risk is high. Sooner or later, if there is a vote in the UK and in view of the current atmosphere, the chances of a negative vote are pretty high. That would be above all a British problem.  Europe would suffer a blow but the UK would receive the full impact of the wave.

UK´s position is important but it is not a reason to stop the process of appointing the EU head forward. 

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.

EU and the Ebola fever

On the same day leaders of the EU and Africa were meeting in Brussels, the people of Guinea, in West Africa, continued to dread the Ebola fever that has now killed close to a hundred people and is still out of control. The government in Conakry has not enough capacity to stop this epidemic. The health services, with the help of some international NGOs, are just overwhelmed. And the risks of contagion across the border into Sierra Leone and Liberia are very real.

But there has been no voice in the leading circles of Europe to raise the issue and call for an urgent, large scale and highly specialised assistance to be sent to Guinea and the neighbours, to help them to effectively respond to a disease that kills close to 95 people on every 100 that can infected. 

Post-elections period in Zimbabwe

It would be wise for the EU to accept the assessment made by the African Union regarding the Zimbabwe elections of 31 July. That assessment can also be combined with the findings of the Zimbabwean Electoral Support Network, a consortium of NGOs that deployed 7,000 observers throughout the country. We have then a more balanced opinion. EU can then state that it follows that balance, based on the judgement made by credible Africans, and express its willingness to constructively engage with the new government in Harare. Constructive engagement with anyone that matters is better than negative criticism. 

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

The art of compromise

At 13:45 hours the European Commission made public their proposal regarding the establishment of a mechanism that would have the authority to deal with banking crisis. The proposed institution would oversee each one of the 6,000 banks –that many, indeed, I agree there are too many banks in Europe –that operate in the Eurozone.

A bit over an hour later, around 15:00 hours, Germany said no to the proposal.

In both cases, the positions were extreme, like two enemies in a war. It's a pity, at a time when the banking union should be moving faster. 

The art of balance, common sense and compromise is being lost in today’s Europe. 

Our friends the spies from the other side of the table...

I do not understand why some EU leaders, in the Parliament and the Commission, are so surprised by the news that the Americans have been spying on them. You have to be very naïve or have no experience of international affairs to believe that “friendly nations” are just that, friends…Friends have interests and they try to protect them. That means, among other things, that they want to know, well in advance, what you are cooking, to be able to reach the dinner table prepared for event…

The US has a special interest in EU affairs. They are particularly interested in trade intelligence, but also on the European positions regarding key international matters, such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Security Council resolutions and so on. Furthermore, they hope to get some additional information about other players by plugging in to the intelligence systems of the European nations.  

They have also a special sharing system with like-minded nations such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and… the UK. Therefore, the British are very much aware of the US is doing regarding the gathering of clandestine information in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, or elsewhere. This also raises a very simple issue: many of the things that are said within the EU are certainly shared by London with their Washington mates. So what? Just make your position clear and transparent and be also sure that when you negotiate with the US you are negotiating with a very well informed – and therefore prepared – interlocutor.

The "reactionary French"

The comments made by the EU Commission President about the “reactionary” French protectionism” are very brave but extremely undiplomatic. Barroso in his interview to the International Herald Tribune said: “Some say they belong to the left, but in fact they are culturally extremely reactionary”. This is a very direct reference to the French President and his position that the trade agreement discussions between the EU and the US should not include “cultural goods”.  France wants to protect its film and music industries from the American might.

Why did Barroso, who is generally very prudent, go that far? He might know something about his future as head of the Commission that we do not know yet.