Showing posts with label Global South. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global South. Show all posts

Sunday, 3 May 2026

Controlling the oceans: China's ambition

 

The Battle for the BBNJ Secretariat


Negotiations for the BBNJ Agreement (Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction) are intensifying ahead of the 2027 Conference of the Parties (COP1). A central conflict has emerged over which city will host the new Secretariat. The three contenders are Valparaíso (Chile), Brussels (Belgium), and Xiamen (China).

China’s Xiamen Bid:

  • The Offer: China has proposed a lavish "one-stop" package, including a 15-story office complex free of charge and significant financial aid to ensure Global South participation.

  • Strategic Motivation: China seeks to rectify a "geographical imbalance," noting that no major UN ocean governance body is currently headquartered in the Asia-Pacific.

  • The "Responsible Power" Narrative: By bidding just as the U.S. (under the Trump administration) withdraws from various international organizations, China is positioning itself as the new anchor of multilateralism and a leader of the Global South.

  • Institutional Expertise: Hosting would provide Beijing a "front-row seat" in shaping the rules for high-seas resources, a sector where it was historically a latecomer.

Decision Factors:

The choice depends on whether the Secretariat becomes a fully independent UN body or an "institutionally linked" agency (favouring Brussels), and how member states weigh China's generous funding against geopolitical concerns regarding its maritime disputes and growing influence.


Commentary: Beijing’s Maritime Manifest Destiny

China’s bid for the BBNJ Secretariat is far more than a bureaucratic application; it is a calculated move to secure normative power over the world’s final frontier: the high seas.

1. Filling the Vacuum of Leadership

Beijing’s timing is surgical. By stepping up exactly as the United States retreats into isolationism, China is performing a "prestige pivot." It is transitioning from a country that merely follows international maritime law to one that houses the house where those laws are managed. This "hosting diplomacy" allows China to frame itself as the adult in the room, contrasting its stability with American volatility.

2. Institutionalizing "Blue Territory" Ambitions

For decades, China has felt hamstrung by a UN ocean architecture (IMO, ITLOS, ISA) designed and dominated by Western powers. By pushing for Xiamen, Beijing is attempting to relocate the "gravitational centre" of ocean governance to its own shores. This isn't just about administrative jobs; it’s about institutional capture. Hosting the Secretariat provides unparalleled access to data, personnel, and the subtle "soft power" required to influence how the "common heritage of mankind" is defined—and exploited.

3. The Global South as a Geopolitical Shield

China’s emphasis on "representativeness" and "capacity building" for developing nations is a brilliant use of the Global South as a geopolitical shield. By tying the Secretariat's success to Chinese funding for poorer nations, Beijing makes it politically difficult for Western nations to oppose the bid without appearing "anti-development."

4. The Irony of the Host

The most significant tension remains China’s own maritime record. Beijing is asking the world to trust it as the custodian of high-seas biodiversity while it simultaneously maintains the world's largest distant-water fishing fleet and continues to assert expansive, contested claims in the South China Sea.

Conclusion

China's ambition is to be simultaneously a maritime power and a maritime regulator. If Xiamen wins, it will signal a fundamental shift in the global order: one where the rules of the ocean are no longer written in the Atlantic, but in the Pacific, under the watchful eye of a resurgent Beijing.

Sunday, 18 January 2026

The role of the European Union as the creator of a new international paradigm

BRIEFING NOTE


DATE: 18 January 2026


SUBJECT: Strategic Diversification: Beyond Mercosur—A New Map for European Resilience


1. CONTEXT: THE "POST-ISOLATION" DOCTRINE

The formal signing of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement yesterday in Asunción (17 January 2026) marks the cornerstone of a broader strategic shift. Amidst increasing trade tensions and the suspension of the EU-US framework, the Union is successfully executing a "Post-Isolation" doctrine. This involves establishing a network of resilient supply chains that insulate the Single Market from geopolitical blackmail.

2. BEYOND MERCOSUR: THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL NETWORK

The Mercosur deal is the flagship, but it is supported by a rapid succession of high-value agreements concluded or modernized in the 2024–2026 cycle:

A. The Indo-Pacific Pivot (Security & Technology)

  • India (Finalization Stage): Negotiations are currently in their final week. The EU-India Trade and Investment Agreement is scheduled for signing on 27 January 2026 in New Delhi. This is the largest trade deal in India's history and secures European access to the world’s most populous market.

  • Indonesia (Ratification Phase): Following the conclusion of negotiations in late 2025, the EU-Indonesia CEPA is moving toward ratification. It provides near-total tariff liberalization and secures critical minerals for the European Green Deal.

  • Thailand (Active Relaunch): Following the January 2026 Civil Society Dialogue in Brussels, negotiations have accelerated to counter-balance regional dependencies.

B. The Southern Hemisphere & Africa (Sustainability & Raw Materials)

  • Chile (Advanced Framework Agreement): Having entered into force in 2025, the modernised agreement is now fully operational, securing 99.9% tariff-free trade and privileged access to the lithium and copper "Lithium Triangle."

  • Kenya (Economic Partnership): This agreement, now in the implementation phase, serves as our primary template for sustainable trade with Africa, focusing on green hydrogen and digital governance.

  • New Zealand (Implementation): Fully in force since May 2024, this remains our "Gold Standard" for enforceable sustainability and labor chapters.

C. The Trans-Pacific Dialogue

  • CPTPP Engagement: Commissioner Šefčovič recently launched the EU-CPTPP Trade and Investment Dialogue in Australia. This signals our intent to align with the 12-nation Trans-Pacific bloc, ensuring Europe is not sidelined by a "Pacific-centric" order.


3. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: THE "WEIGHT OF THE WORLD"

European current trade trajectory creates a Strategic Diversification Effect that directly counters Eurasian nihilism:

RegionStrategic FunctionStatus (Jan 2026)
MercosurAgriculture & Energy SecuritySigned (17 Jan 2026)
IndiaDigital Integration & Supply ChainSigning (27 Jan 2026)
IndonesiaCritical Raw Materials (Nickel/Copper)Finalized / Ratifying
ChileGreen Transition (Lithium)Fully Operational
US(Critical Warning)Suspended/Negotiation Pause

4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE COMMISSION PRESIDENT

  1. Weaponize Stability: At the upcoming Davos summit, frame these agreements as a "Coalition of the Reliable." Contrast the Union's consistency with the erratic, tariff-based behavior of other major powers.

  2. Institutionalize the South: Use the UN80 framework to invite our new trade partners (Brazil, India, Indonesia) into a "Council of Strategic Partners." This transforms trade leverage into permanent diplomatic support.

  3. Accelerate "Minilateralism": In sectors where WTO consensus remains paralyzed, utilize these bilateral agreements to set global standards on AI, Carbon Border Adjustments (CBAM), and labor rights.

5. FINAL ASSESSMENT

The Union is no longer a "civilian power" reacting to crises; it is an Architect of Alternatives. By diversifying away from volatile theaters and securing the "Global South" via Mercosur, India, and ASEAN, the Union has effectively nullified the threat of economic isolation.



Victor Ângelo