Showing posts with label Global South. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global South. Show all posts

Friday, 29 May 2026

The Pope and the new world order: "Magnifica Humanitas"

DN Opinion

Humanity and algorithms: Leo XIV’s warning to the world

Victor Ângelo
International Security Advisor. Former Under-Secretary-General/Special Representative of the United Nations

Published on: 29 May 2026

In publishing his first encyclical, Magnifica Humanitas, Pope Leo XIV has delivered far more than a mere pastoral document. He has provided a formidable diagnosis of the nature of power in the contemporary era. I view the text as a crucial geopolitical manifesto concerning what is arguably the greatest source of power and conflict in the 21st century: Artificial Intelligence (AI).

The encyclical moves well beyond the traditional critique of States, pointing the finger at tech conglomerates as bona fide political and military actors. Armed with vast financial resources, advanced research capabilities, and extraordinary political clout, these corporations now dictate strategic priorities that supersede the decision-making capacity of governments themselves. Furthermore, they do so entirely beyond the reach of democratic scrutiny.

The Pope is unequivocal in his warnings. AI is undermining public opinion through global-scale disinformation and hollowing out our humanity as we delegate moral decisions to machines. Worse still, with the proliferation of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), AI threatens the very logic of warfare—a concept that is already, in most instances, an ethical contradiction. One need only look to the tragedy of Minab, in southern Iran. On the 28th of February, an autonomous target-selection system "decided" to kill 156 people in a primary school. This serves as yet another proof of the peril and fallibility of these systems. The alibis for such errors? Outdated databases, models skewed by inherent biases, and a bizarre inability to read the context on the ground. There are numerous examples where alleged "surgical precision" has proven to be nothing more than indiscriminate carnage.

There is an operational detail that has not escaped the Vatican’s notice. These platforms operate at a velocity that simply deprives military personnel of the time required to evaluate targets. Operators risk becoming mere formal validators. In other words, the roles are reversed: machines become the decision-makers, and humans are reduced to mere automatons who click "yes" to approve a choice made by an algorithm. This dizzying speed effectively eradicates the moral responsibility of the commander. What International Law would classify as an undeniable war crime—in Minab, Beirut, Gaza, Kyiv, and beyond—is cynically filed away as a "programming error". The Pope asserts that, with the theory of the "just war" now obsolete, there remains only a highly restricted right to legitimate defence, governed by ethical proportionality and responsible human decision-making.

In light of this, and because the encyclical underscores the centrality of peace within the UN, I reiterate a proposal I make frequently: the urgent need for a profound revision of the Charter of the United Nations. The updated version must explicitly mention these new existential threats and adopt a new binding principle that makes international solidarity mandatory. To wit: technological advancement must serve human progress.

On the day following the publication of the encyclical, an interesting coincidence occurred: the UN Security Council convened to debate various topics, among them the governance of AI. In his address, António Guterres emphasized that new technologies are advancing more rapidly than our capacity to manage them, which creates additional and as yet unknown risks to international peace. However, the tone of the meeting—convened and chaired by Wang Yi, Xi Jinping’s right-hand man—was altogether different.

Wang announced the creation of the "World AI Cooperation Organization" (WAICO), to be headquartered in Shanghai. The official justification put forward by China appears attractive and is an easy sell: to strengthen multilateralism. The reality, however, is quite different. It is an attempt to create a direct counterweight to Western digital power. In truth, it is but another step in Beijing's strategy to dominate the new world order.

Thus, two diametrically opposed visions stand face to face. From Beijing's perspective, the future is built by relentlessly reinforcing the power of the State. For those who share Leo XIV’s thinking, the focus is the very survival of the human condition. For those who support the multilateral system, the issue is no longer debating which of these visions is correct. It is attempting to discern how our fragile global institutions will survive the head-on collision between the imperatives of power and the imperatives of humanity.

It all comes down to how we define sovereignty. China maintains a strictly Westphalian view: the State as the ultimate sovereign authority. Yet, we must note that this is not exclusively Chinese. Beijing's geopolitical realism is the exact mirror image of current doctrine in the White House and the Kremlin. Whether it is Russia's "indivisible security", the hypernationalism of the Trump Administration, Xi Jinping's state control, or Netanyahu's securitized expansionism, the premise remains the same. All of them reduce AI to a mere tool for military purposes, espionage, counter-espionage, and control. They harbour the illusion that the advancement of algorithms generates equilibrium and security. History proves precisely the opposite. Realism stripped of values does not guarantee stability. It has invariably led to dictatorship, confrontation, and war.

Against this folly, Leo XIV counters with an unambiguous defence of humanism. This is not pacifist naivety or spiritual utopianism. It is the pragmatic conviction that the international architecture must be shaped to preserve life, rather than to feed a roboticized Darwinism among superpowers and other warmongering States.

This is why I believe the true impact of Magnifica Humanitas will be felt outside the traditional axis of international power. In the Global South, the text will serve as a valuable manifesto against digital colonialism. Even in non-Christian societies—in the Islamic world or across Asia—the universal focus on human dignity, devoid of theological dogma, provides a highly relevant platform for convergence. Leo XIV has issued a clear warning: global governance will only succeed if it is born of a dialogue that protects Humanity from its own technological dehumanization.

Sunday, 3 May 2026

Controlling the oceans: China's ambition

 

The Battle for the BBNJ Secretariat


Negotiations for the BBNJ Agreement (Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction) are intensifying ahead of the 2027 Conference of the Parties (COP1). A central conflict has emerged over which city will host the new Secretariat. The three contenders are Valparaíso (Chile), Brussels (Belgium), and Xiamen (China).

China’s Xiamen Bid:

  • The Offer: China has proposed a lavish "one-stop" package, including a 15-story office complex free of charge and significant financial aid to ensure Global South participation.

  • Strategic Motivation: China seeks to rectify a "geographical imbalance," noting that no major UN ocean governance body is currently headquartered in the Asia-Pacific.

  • The "Responsible Power" Narrative: By bidding just as the U.S. (under the Trump administration) withdraws from various international organizations, China is positioning itself as the new anchor of multilateralism and a leader of the Global South.

  • Institutional Expertise: Hosting would provide Beijing a "front-row seat" in shaping the rules for high-seas resources, a sector where it was historically a latecomer.

Decision Factors:

The choice depends on whether the Secretariat becomes a fully independent UN body or an "institutionally linked" agency (favouring Brussels), and how member states weigh China's generous funding against geopolitical concerns regarding its maritime disputes and growing influence.


Commentary: Beijing’s Maritime Manifest Destiny

China’s bid for the BBNJ Secretariat is far more than a bureaucratic application; it is a calculated move to secure normative power over the world’s final frontier: the high seas.

1. Filling the Vacuum of Leadership

Beijing’s timing is surgical. By stepping up exactly as the United States retreats into isolationism, China is performing a "prestige pivot." It is transitioning from a country that merely follows international maritime law to one that houses the house where those laws are managed. This "hosting diplomacy" allows China to frame itself as the adult in the room, contrasting its stability with American volatility.

2. Institutionalizing "Blue Territory" Ambitions

For decades, China has felt hamstrung by a UN ocean architecture (IMO, ITLOS, ISA) designed and dominated by Western powers. By pushing for Xiamen, Beijing is attempting to relocate the "gravitational centre" of ocean governance to its own shores. This isn't just about administrative jobs; it’s about institutional capture. Hosting the Secretariat provides unparalleled access to data, personnel, and the subtle "soft power" required to influence how the "common heritage of mankind" is defined—and exploited.

3. The Global South as a Geopolitical Shield

China’s emphasis on "representativeness" and "capacity building" for developing nations is a brilliant use of the Global South as a geopolitical shield. By tying the Secretariat's success to Chinese funding for poorer nations, Beijing makes it politically difficult for Western nations to oppose the bid without appearing "anti-development."

4. The Irony of the Host

The most significant tension remains China’s own maritime record. Beijing is asking the world to trust it as the custodian of high-seas biodiversity while it simultaneously maintains the world's largest distant-water fishing fleet and continues to assert expansive, contested claims in the South China Sea.

Conclusion

China's ambition is to be simultaneously a maritime power and a maritime regulator. If Xiamen wins, it will signal a fundamental shift in the global order: one where the rules of the ocean are no longer written in the Atlantic, but in the Pacific, under the watchful eye of a resurgent Beijing.

Sunday, 18 January 2026

The role of the European Union as the creator of a new international paradigm

BRIEFING NOTE


DATE: 18 January 2026


SUBJECT: Strategic Diversification: Beyond Mercosur—A New Map for European Resilience


1. CONTEXT: THE "POST-ISOLATION" DOCTRINE

The formal signing of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement yesterday in Asunción (17 January 2026) marks the cornerstone of a broader strategic shift. Amidst increasing trade tensions and the suspension of the EU-US framework, the Union is successfully executing a "Post-Isolation" doctrine. This involves establishing a network of resilient supply chains that insulate the Single Market from geopolitical blackmail.

2. BEYOND MERCOSUR: THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL NETWORK

The Mercosur deal is the flagship, but it is supported by a rapid succession of high-value agreements concluded or modernized in the 2024–2026 cycle:

A. The Indo-Pacific Pivot (Security & Technology)

  • India (Finalization Stage): Negotiations are currently in their final week. The EU-India Trade and Investment Agreement is scheduled for signing on 27 January 2026 in New Delhi. This is the largest trade deal in India's history and secures European access to the world’s most populous market.

  • Indonesia (Ratification Phase): Following the conclusion of negotiations in late 2025, the EU-Indonesia CEPA is moving toward ratification. It provides near-total tariff liberalization and secures critical minerals for the European Green Deal.

  • Thailand (Active Relaunch): Following the January 2026 Civil Society Dialogue in Brussels, negotiations have accelerated to counter-balance regional dependencies.

B. The Southern Hemisphere & Africa (Sustainability & Raw Materials)

  • Chile (Advanced Framework Agreement): Having entered into force in 2025, the modernised agreement is now fully operational, securing 99.9% tariff-free trade and privileged access to the lithium and copper "Lithium Triangle."

  • Kenya (Economic Partnership): This agreement, now in the implementation phase, serves as our primary template for sustainable trade with Africa, focusing on green hydrogen and digital governance.

  • New Zealand (Implementation): Fully in force since May 2024, this remains our "Gold Standard" for enforceable sustainability and labor chapters.

C. The Trans-Pacific Dialogue

  • CPTPP Engagement: Commissioner Šefčovič recently launched the EU-CPTPP Trade and Investment Dialogue in Australia. This signals our intent to align with the 12-nation Trans-Pacific bloc, ensuring Europe is not sidelined by a "Pacific-centric" order.


3. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: THE "WEIGHT OF THE WORLD"

European current trade trajectory creates a Strategic Diversification Effect that directly counters Eurasian nihilism:

RegionStrategic FunctionStatus (Jan 2026)
MercosurAgriculture & Energy SecuritySigned (17 Jan 2026)
IndiaDigital Integration & Supply ChainSigning (27 Jan 2026)
IndonesiaCritical Raw Materials (Nickel/Copper)Finalized / Ratifying
ChileGreen Transition (Lithium)Fully Operational
US(Critical Warning)Suspended/Negotiation Pause

4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE COMMISSION PRESIDENT

  1. Weaponize Stability: At the upcoming Davos summit, frame these agreements as a "Coalition of the Reliable." Contrast the Union's consistency with the erratic, tariff-based behavior of other major powers.

  2. Institutionalize the South: Use the UN80 framework to invite our new trade partners (Brazil, India, Indonesia) into a "Council of Strategic Partners." This transforms trade leverage into permanent diplomatic support.

  3. Accelerate "Minilateralism": In sectors where WTO consensus remains paralyzed, utilize these bilateral agreements to set global standards on AI, Carbon Border Adjustments (CBAM), and labor rights.

5. FINAL ASSESSMENT

The Union is no longer a "civilian power" reacting to crises; it is an Architect of Alternatives. By diversifying away from volatile theaters and securing the "Global South" via Mercosur, India, and ASEAN, the Union has effectively nullified the threat of economic isolation.



Victor Ângelo