I
lost my bet. I told a couple of friends that François Fillon, the French
conservative leader, would resign from the presidential race before the
weekend. But he is still struggling on, apparently convinced that his best
option lays in remaining in the contest. So I was wrong, the man is still
kicking.
After
all the revelations about his extraordinary and unjustified use of public
monies to pay his wife and two children, for work that seemingly never
happened, Fillon has lost a very good deal of credibility. He was, up to the
disclosures, the candidate everybody thought would win the French presidency in
May. Now, his chances have simply evaporated.
Fillon´s
fall from grace can have a major negative impact on the conservative camp and
also on the outcome of the elections. Some of his voters will move further
right and might end up by supporting Marine Le Pen, the extreme-right
flag bearer.
For
the democratic camp, the challenge is to prevent such move. There is a real
danger here. Le Pen can benefit from the deep discontent that was already
present in the French society and that Fillon´s scandal has seriously contributed
to exacerbate. In addition, it will be essential to attract many of those
supporters to the centre field. That´s not very easy to achieve but it is
possible. That´s where all the efforts should be focused.
