France´s complexities

I lost my bet. I told a couple of friends that François Fillon, the French conservative leader, would resign from the presidential race before the weekend. But he is still struggling on, apparently convinced that his best option lays in remaining in the contest. So I was wrong, the man is still kicking.

After all the revelations about his extraordinary and unjustified use of public monies to pay his wife and two children, for work that seemingly never happened, Fillon has lost a very good deal of credibility. He was, up to the disclosures, the candidate everybody thought would win the French presidency in May. Now, his chances have simply evaporated.

Fillon´s fall from grace can have a major negative impact on the conservative camp and also on the outcome of the elections. Some of his voters will move further right and might end up by supporting Marine Le Pen, the extreme-right flag bearer.

For the democratic camp, the challenge is to prevent such move. There is a real danger here. Le Pen can benefit from the deep discontent that was already present in the French society and that Fillon´s scandal has seriously contributed to exacerbate. In addition, it will be essential to attract many of those supporters to the centre field. That´s not very easy to achieve but it is possible. That´s where all the efforts should be focused.

French elections

The French Presidential election in May 2017 will be a defining moment for the future of the EU. It would be a major blow for those who believe in harmony in Europe to have the right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen, a xenophobic monster, to win that election. To defeat her is the chief task ahead for many of us in the EU, not just in France.

In some ways, the result of today´s race among the centre-right seven candidates is a step in the right direction. François Fillon, the front runner, is not a bad choice. He is certainly a much better option than the former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has now been eliminated from the competition. He has much less baggage and he can attract a significantly larger number of voters. He is also a relatively fresh face in the French politics. That matters. Change is now a powerful political argument.

We have now to wait until next Sunday to see if Fillon is confirmed as the centre-right candidate for the presidency. We have also to see what the centre-left is going to decide. At present, it is unclear who will be running for the Socialist Party.

Marine Le Pen tonight

The outcome of the French regional elections is now clear. I mean, it shows that the Front National (FN) of Marine Le Pen keeps attracting new supporters as time goes on. It will be, sooner or later, a major democratic challenge for France and a huge headache for Europe. We better be aware of that. And address, as we can, the issues that explain the FN´s political expansion. We should do it before it is too late. 

Our European problems and Cameron´s

There is very little time, these days, to think about David Cameron and his conditions for the UK to remain within the EU.

France and Marine Le Pen´s initial electoral victory are taking a lot of the attention span available. And there are good reasons for that. Le Pen´s race to power needs to be stopped. And the concerns of her voters must be responded to at the same time. These are two immense jobs. They concern not only the French but all those in the vicinity who believe in a united Europe.

Then, there is the fight against terrorism. The key issue is to devise approaches that could effectively prevent the radicalisation of some young Europeans. There is a lot of debate about the issue of radicalisation but not enough concrete ideas on how to tackle it. The competition for new ideas is open.

The immigration issue is still unresolved. That adds a very heavy burden to the European agenda. And the longer it takes the more complex it becomes. The first step here is to strengthen the Schengen external borders. But there are many other things that need to be dealt with, including the very serious challenge of integrating those who are already in. This task is now particularly complex in view of the current change of opinion about the massive presence of Muslim populations in the European space.

In the midst of these very critical issues the UK´s referendum looks very much like Cameron´s self-created problem. He will have to take the lead in sorting it out. He knows that his key financial masters want the UK to stay in the EU. He also understands he cannot deceive them. He has therefore to be smart and imaginative. What a challenge!

A day in life

I had planned that I would end today by saying thank you to a very good number of friends.

I still want to do it, as I am very touched by so many messages and calls I received throughout the day. It is a privilege to have some many friends in so many corners of the world. Well, after spending a full life on the road, what else could I expect?

But beyond the words of acknowledgment and gratitude, I have to place one or two of anxiety in view of the results in France.

The end of the day brought in the news about the National Front (FN) of Marine Le Pen and its big jump forward in the regional elections.

Radicalism is certainly not good for the future of France and also not good for the European common project. Le Pen´s electoral growth shows we have a real problem with a good number of citizens that feel discouraged and see the EU has a threat. This adds one more critical challenge to a list that has already some very dangerous lines on it. 

France is a pillar of the European project, it cannot fail

There has been, in the EU circles, serious concern about France´s political future and its impact on the European project. The rise of extremist parties, in particular the Front National, has left many people very worried. More so, in view of President Hollande´s poor leadership. He is definitely considered as too weak and incapable of fighting for a stronger Europe. Not even for a more proactive France within the European project.

But tonight, as the preliminary results of the French regional elections become known, there is a bit of hope. The Front National seems to be close to its electoral ceiling of 25%. And both Sarkozy´s party, on the right, and Hollande´s PS, are ahead of the Front. That´s good news.