The incoming President of the EU Commission

Regarding the choice of Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor, the informal consultations between the leaders have yet to point towards a consensus.

There was a dinner last Friday, here in Brussels, that brought together six Prime Ministers, representing the three main European political families: the centre-right, the liberals and the social-democrats. It did not go very far, except for showing that Manfred Weber, the centre-right candidate, has very little chances of getting the European Commission Presidency. He is perceived as not belonging to the circle of top leaders, Prime Ministers or former Presidents.

Today we learned that President Macron is pushing for Chancellor Angela Merkel as the best choice. But the Chancellor is not ready to move to Brussels. Her party is losing ground in Germany and she wants to remain focused on recovering the support of the German voters.

We never know, of course.

But we know that the European Commission needs a strong and clear-minded leader. One that can be respected by the heads of State and Government and projects an image that inspires trust and hope among the citizens of Europe. Also, that can talk to Presidents Trump, Putin, or Xi, with the necessary standing. He or she must be a heavyweight. Therefore, the choice is a very delicate matter.

Some people might think that in the end what matters is Emmanuel Macron’s or Angela Merkel’s opinion. That’s certainly not the case this time. Every national leader’s opinion matter. The current climate must recognise that fact. The selection must convince everyone.

Estonia's turn to the far-right

We do not pay too much attention to politics in Estonia. The received wisdom, in Brussels and in the Western part of the EU, is that the country is doing well and springs as an example of e-government and the connected society.

But these days, there are some less tranquilising news coming from Tallinn. The Prime Minister’s Centre Party, a member of the centre-right European family, has now decided, against all pledges, to establish a governing alliance with the extremists on the far-right and offer them five Cabinet positions.

EKRE, that’s the name of the extremist party, is not good political company. Some of its banners are inspired by white supremacist ideas and old-time national-socialist nightmares. 

Estonia is following the same path Austria has already taken. And others. That is certainly not an encouraging development for the rest of the EU. It shows the populists keep gaining access to power in different corners of the Union. European leaders cannot remain silent when these types of coalitions are put in place.  

Liberalism is not a useful banner

In today’s Europe, the banner around “liberal values” does not attract enough support. Everything that is associated with “liberalism” is seen as elitist and globalist. At least, it is perceived as unclear, a concept difficult to grasp and distant from the daily concerns people are confronted with. It cannot be used to win votes during the forthcoming European elections.  

Macron and the Germans

The CDU Leader’s response to Emmanuel Macron shows there is a big gap between the German right-wing vision of Europe’s future and the more centrist proposals made by the French President. And, in many ways, the CDU’s views, as expressed by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, reflect the opinion we can find in the German streets.

They also send a clear message to Macron. We can cooperate but we do not belong to the same political family. And we, Germans, we lead our grouping of parties in the European institutions.

Macron must feel a bit alone tonight.  

Kicking Orbán out

The European People’s Party (EPP, centre-right grouping of EU political parties) would make a serious mistake if its leaders decide against the expulsion from the group of Viktor Orbán’s party, Fidesz.

Recently, Fidesz and above all, its leader, the Prime Minister of Hungary, have launched a vicious campaign against Jean-Claude Juncker, who is a prominent member of the EPP family. That’s not only incomprehensible but is also totally unacceptable, as the campaign is tainted by lies and inspired by anti-Semitic sentiments. Basically, Orbán tries to draw dividends from his fabrications against George Soros. He wants to extend the negative image he has managed to build of Soros to the President of the European Commission. Orbán’s tactics consist in inventing an enemy and then concentrate the voters’ attention on destroying such person.

It is politics without any type of scruples. The man is very dangerous.

That comes in addition to Orbán’s domestic crusades against the freedom of the press, the autonomy of the academic institutions and his repeated attacks against the independence of the NGOs.

He does not belong to the centre-right politics. He is an extremist. Therefore, he should join the extreme right circles. The sooner that message is sent to him, and all, the better.

France´s complexities

I lost my bet. I told a couple of friends that François Fillon, the French conservative leader, would resign from the presidential race before the weekend. But he is still struggling on, apparently convinced that his best option lays in remaining in the contest. So I was wrong, the man is still kicking.

After all the revelations about his extraordinary and unjustified use of public monies to pay his wife and two children, for work that seemingly never happened, Fillon has lost a very good deal of credibility. He was, up to the disclosures, the candidate everybody thought would win the French presidency in May. Now, his chances have simply evaporated.

Fillon´s fall from grace can have a major negative impact on the conservative camp and also on the outcome of the elections. Some of his voters will move further right and might end up by supporting Marine Le Pen, the extreme-right flag bearer.

For the democratic camp, the challenge is to prevent such move. There is a real danger here. Le Pen can benefit from the deep discontent that was already present in the French society and that Fillon´s scandal has seriously contributed to exacerbate. In addition, it will be essential to attract many of those supporters to the centre field. That´s not very easy to achieve but it is possible. That´s where all the efforts should be focused.