French elections

The French Presidential election in May 2017 will be a defining moment for the future of the EU. It would be a major blow for those who believe in harmony in Europe to have the right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen, a xenophobic monster, to win that election. To defeat her is the chief task ahead for many of us in the EU, not just in France.

In some ways, the result of today´s race among the centre-right seven candidates is a step in the right direction. François Fillon, the front runner, is not a bad choice. He is certainly a much better option than the former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has now been eliminated from the competition. He has much less baggage and he can attract a significantly larger number of voters. He is also a relatively fresh face in the French politics. That matters. Change is now a powerful political argument.

We have now to wait until next Sunday to see if Fillon is confirmed as the centre-right candidate for the presidency. We have also to see what the centre-left is going to decide. At present, it is unclear who will be running for the Socialist Party.

Happy New Year and bring confidence back

As we start the New Year, we also realise that one the great challenges ahead, as far as the European leaders are concerned, is to regain their credibility. They have to take into account that public opinion is a strategic variable in matters of politics. And they have to endeavour to get the voters ‘confidence back. That should be the main topic of discussion in the political circles as we get into the first working week of 2016.

In the meantime, and just as an example, let me refer that Le Figaro´s edition of today organised a poll on President Hollande´s New Year Message. The daily newspaper got close to 46 thousand responses to the question. 92% of the readers said the message was not convincing. That´s an incredible negative reaction. It´s true that most of those who read Le Figaro are rather on the opposite side of Hollande´s politics. But still, such a percentage is just too revealing: political confidence is one way avenue. Once lost, it is almost impossible to recover.

Just to complement, on this same day another survey has shown that 3 out of every 4 French citizens do not wish either Hollande or Sarkozy to run for the presidency in 2017.

2016 is indeed a very promising year on the leadership side of politics.

France is a pillar of the European project, it cannot fail

There has been, in the EU circles, serious concern about France´s political future and its impact on the European project. The rise of extremist parties, in particular the Front National, has left many people very worried. More so, in view of President Hollande´s poor leadership. He is definitely considered as too weak and incapable of fighting for a stronger Europe. Not even for a more proactive France within the European project.

But tonight, as the preliminary results of the French regional elections become known, there is a bit of hope. The Front National seems to be close to its electoral ceiling of 25%. And both Sarkozy´s party, on the right, and Hollande´s PS, are ahead of the Front. That´s good news. 

Barroso´s final months

Barroso has now said, in a TV interview, he is not seeking a new mandate as President of the European commission. His mandate ends in October 2014.

This is a smart move. He has been facing serious opposition from different quarters. Everything started with former French President Sarkozy, who towards the end of his presidency had come to dislike Barroso. People thought that would change with Hollande´s investiture. That has not been the case. Actually, Hollande became an open opponent of many of the EC President´s initiatives. And other EU leaders have also gained cold feet. So, as Barroso announces he will be out of the way in less of a year´s time he gets some free space to make a couple of bold proposals. During the next few months, he will keep an eye on history and will try to strike an initiative that will be for many years associated with his name.

This might also be a chance to see a stronger head of the EC. Europe needs to hear more than a few rumblings. 

Shut up, the big boys are cutting the EU budget!

The UK Prime Minister has drafted a letter to state his government's position regarding the EU budgets for the next years. Basically, David Cameron would see the budgetary appropriations that finance the functioning of the European institutions and the solidarity funds being capped at the level of the 2013 budget. Even the inflation figures would not be fully taken into account.

The PM has convinced France and Germany to support his demarche.

One understands budgets are being cut all over Europe, in each member state. Therefore, there is no political excuse to let the EU allocations, in the years to come, to follow a different course. That's the bright side of this initiative. The darker side is that the cuts will take place, if the will of these three governments prevails in Brussels, in the wrong accounts. The Common Agricultural Policy, for instance, which is an archaic compensatory system that benefits above all the French, German and British owners of very large farms,will remain untouched. No reduction, there. On the other side of this story, the cohesion funds, that are supposed to bring poorer European regions closer to the Union's wealth average, will see significant cuts.

Tant pis, as President Sarkozy would say. Only the weaker states need such cohesion mechanisms. Their voice can somehow be ignored.