Afghanistan beyond 2014

Still no agreement between the Afghan government and the coalition of countries that would be ready to provide security assistance to Afghanistan after ISAF´s closure at the end of this year.

This is a matter of concern. It is true that Afghan forces are today better prepared than before. But that might not be enough. Actually, the country continues to require international cooperation in matters of internal security. To believe otherwise would be a straight and short road to disaster.  

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history. 

Karzai is making it impossible

Yesterday’s suicide attack against a well-known Kabul restaurant, which killed so many people and also destroyed the little flame of normalcy that the establishment symbolised, reminds all of us that President Karzai has yet to move on the security cooperation agreement with the US.

That agreement is the indispensable framework for any future assistance to Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, at the end of this year. It was approved by the Loya Jirga (great assembly of elders and local traditional chiefs) in November 2013. Hamid Karzai could have signed it soon after. He has not done it and the delay is making it almost impossible to ensure a proper transition to the period post-ISAF. This will have a major impact on the continuation of key development projects. International staff will be drastically reduced if the security conditions are not properly guaranteed.

What are Karzai´s motives?  

Afghan women and human rights

Afghan woman leaders are very worried about the country’s situation post-2014. They have very little or no information about the on-going secret dialogue that is gradually taking place between the Karzai people and the Taleban leaders and they fear that the priority that is given to peace at any cost will have a very heavy cost as far as women’s rights are concerned. They believe that there is a trade-off on the table that will buy the Taleban in and will place the women out…

The women are also very surprised that the big partners of Afghanistan seem more interested in “sustaining” peace – a way of showing that the many years of military intervention have achieved durable results and that the operational assistance was therefore worth the sacrifice and the money – than on protecting the human rights gains.

These are very legitimate concerns. They are even more justified when one looks at President Karzai’s increasing silence about women's issues. 

Good governance in Afghanistan

I spent part of the afternoon in a public discussion about the future of Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, the international military deployment. End 2014 is around the corner and security remains a major challenge. But some of the Afghan participants told us that more important than the security transition – the transfer of responsibilities from the NATO-led force to the national army – is the political transition that is scheduled for next year. In about 14 months there will be presidential elections and a new leader will take over from President Hamid Karzai. The credibility of those elections is still a matter to be addressed. And, more importantly, as the NATO representative in the discussion said: “we need a good, honest government in Kabul”.

Well, this is indeed a big challenge.