Lessons from Afghanistan

This last day of 2014 marks the end of ISAF, the international military mission in Afghanistan. The coalition of combat forces, the largest alliance of states for military purposes in recent history, has been on the ground for 13 years. Throughout this very long intervention, the human and financial costs were immense. Many raise questions. Was it worth the investment, the sacrifices of so many? Was it the best approach to bring together a deeply divided country which had become a breeding nest for violent extremism and negative model of retrograde approaches to life in society? Is the current situation that is left in the hands of the national authorities sustainable? Are we safer at present?

Many thesis will be written about the international assistance to Afghanistan. But beyond the academic papers, the model applied in Afghanistan will also challenge the way we see peace enforcement, international military assistance, and the relations between key international organisations, nation building and national leadership issues. The concept of comprehensive response will also have to be revised. It should include, a few other dimensions, the regional response. Afghanistan is just the inner circle of much larger storm that includes the neighbouring countries. Any military response within the smaller circle can only be effective and sustainable if it goes beyond that circle and brings together a much wider and multifaceted political response.

Beyond these substantive and wide-ranging issues, the points today, at the end of 2014, are to remember all those who have fallen during the many years past and to wish the people of that country and its region a more peaceful 2015. They dramatically need that type of hope.

Afghanistan beyond 2014

Still no agreement between the Afghan government and the coalition of countries that would be ready to provide security assistance to Afghanistan after ISAF´s closure at the end of this year.

This is a matter of concern. It is true that Afghan forces are today better prepared than before. But that might not be enough. Actually, the country continues to require international cooperation in matters of internal security. To believe otherwise would be a straight and short road to disaster.  

Afghan elections

The news coming from Afghanistan is good. After a relatively successful electoral day, the counting of votes is progressing well and the presidential candidates are taking it with the required composure.

It is too early, at this stage, to find out if there will a second round or not. But the top competitors seem to be prepared to accept the verdict of the polls. Let´s hope that will be the case. That will send a strong message to everyone, inside and outside the country, a message that things are more stable than many would have thought. 

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history. 

Karzai is making it impossible

Yesterday’s suicide attack against a well-known Kabul restaurant, which killed so many people and also destroyed the little flame of normalcy that the establishment symbolised, reminds all of us that President Karzai has yet to move on the security cooperation agreement with the US.

That agreement is the indispensable framework for any future assistance to Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, at the end of this year. It was approved by the Loya Jirga (great assembly of elders and local traditional chiefs) in November 2013. Hamid Karzai could have signed it soon after. He has not done it and the delay is making it almost impossible to ensure a proper transition to the period post-ISAF. This will have a major impact on the continuation of key development projects. International staff will be drastically reduced if the security conditions are not properly guaranteed.

What are Karzai´s motives?  

Afghanistan: more coherence within the international community

One of my friends called my attention to the recent attacks against international organisations in Afghanistan. In both cases –International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) – the Taliban targeted organisations that had signed a memorandum of understanding with the NATO-led force ISAF.

This coincidence sounds very much like a message being sent by the extremists. The message back should then be very clear: it should be about a greater degree of coherence and unity within the international community, around a shared political agenda. That’s actual the only way forward in Afghanistan. Now and after 2014. 

Good governance in Afghanistan

I spent part of the afternoon in a public discussion about the future of Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, the international military deployment. End 2014 is around the corner and security remains a major challenge. But some of the Afghan participants told us that more important than the security transition – the transfer of responsibilities from the NATO-led force to the national army – is the political transition that is scheduled for next year. In about 14 months there will be presidential elections and a new leader will take over from President Hamid Karzai. The credibility of those elections is still a matter to be addressed. And, more importantly, as the NATO representative in the discussion said: “we need a good, honest government in Kabul”.

Well, this is indeed a big challenge.