A complex strategic game between China and India

The recent brutal border clashes between China and India caused about 20 deaths on the Indian side and an unknown number of casualties on Chinese camp. People might not know, but no bullet was fired by the opposing armies. There is a compromise between the two countries not to shoot at the other side. The soldiers fought hand-to-hand, with clubs embedded with nails or barbed wire, and other blunt weapons and rocks. Some of the Indian men were pushed into the icy waters of the Galwan river or over the mountain ridges.

That was a vicious confrontation, that brings us back to ancient practices. But it is a good illustration of the strategic rivalry that is developing between these two giants, both armed with sophisticated weaponry and nuclear capabilities. At the local level, in their border disputes – there are at least three fronts where those disputes are continually active – they go for sticks and nails. At the diplomatic level, they play the complex game of subtle threats combined with frequent high-level meetings and, on the Indian side, a special relationship with the United States, a matter that is seen as a major issue by the Chinese.

It is fascinating geopolitics but not for those who fight in the cold of the Himalayas.

A new human tragedy is emerging

Another major humanitarian crisis is emerging fast. This time is in the Assam State, in India. There has been a population registration process there. It is now completed. It shows around 1.9 million people left out of citizenship rights. Prime Minister Modi’s officials say these people have no ground to call themselves Indians. No identification, no citizenship means, in Modi’s India, expulsion, deportation to Bangladesh, of all places. And Bangladesh, that is already coping with the Rohingyas from Myanmar, says they will not recognise these people as citizens.

A new mass tragedy in a world that likes to talk about human rights, democracy and social progress.

A deteriorating situation around Kashmir

One of the most militarised borders in the world is the one between India and Pakistan. Men and the most sophisticated means of control stand of both sides of the line. The tension level is always very high, close to open conflict. Unfortunately, these days it is even closer. We are witnessing an extreme delicate crisis between the two countries. The reason is once again the dispute and the unresolved situation around Kashmir. I do not think we, in Europe, should take sides. But we should advise both countries to lower the pressure. We should express our deep concern with the current escalation of the conflict. And appeal to China to remain out of the problem. By taking sides with Pakistan, the Chinese are not playing the constructive role they should be playing in the region. That is not the Chinese foreign policy President Xi Jinping has pledged he would follow.

Good governance in Afghanistan

I spent part of the afternoon in a public discussion about the future of Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, the international military deployment. End 2014 is around the corner and security remains a major challenge. But some of the Afghan participants told us that more important than the security transition – the transfer of responsibilities from the NATO-led force to the national army – is the political transition that is scheduled for next year. In about 14 months there will be presidential elections and a new leader will take over from President Hamid Karzai. The credibility of those elections is still a matter to be addressed. And, more importantly, as the NATO representative in the discussion said: “we need a good, honest government in Kabul”.

Well, this is indeed a big challenge.