Brexit, stage two. Next, please!

Theresa May lost the vote again, for a second time. And I would add, we, the Europeans, have also been defeated. It is in our common interest, for the British side and our own, in the EU, to have a properly organised exit and a transition period that is as smooth as possible. Anything else, specially a no-deal situation, would be a major shock. It would have an extremely negative impact on both economies and would bring serious disruptions to a relationship that has many dimensions and is very deep.

I am sure that the message that will come out of tomorrow’s vote at Westminster will be very clear. No deal is not a solution, that will be the outcome of the vote. Brexit, yes, but with an agreement, that will certainly be the Parliamentarians decision.

It will become pressing clear in the next weeks that there is a possible deal on the table. That’s the one that failed to pass today and had already been voted against two months ago. My guess, as a possible way out, is that Theresa May and the Europeans leaders will massage the draft deal once more and add a few lines to an extra new document. Then, Theresa May will bring it back to Westminster for a third round of votes. And, to our surprise, the House will go for it. 

What I am suggesting is an adaptation of the rule of three, the famous belief that a trio of events is more humorous, satisfying, or effective than just two.

These are very new times, a unique moment in the European history, and we can expect the implausible. 

It's all Theresa May's fault!

In the UK, key Conservative opinion makers are now in a campaign to place all the blame on Prime Minister Theresa May.

Uncertainty, even confusion, and growing resentment define the current British political climate. Like the proverbial meteorology of those Isles, the climate around Brexit is foggy and unpleasant.

And they are openly saying, it is May’s fault! They add then: it comes from her lack of true enthusiasm for the exit ideals. Those Conservatives – and they are quite influential in the mainstream right-wing media, not just in the tabloid sheets – want to divert people’s attention from the inescapable issue, meaning, that the UK needs to agree on an exit deal with the EU. And that inevitable deal is the one that has been on the table since November 2018.

They also want to present some crazies – Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Ian Duncan Smith, among others – as true patriots, people that can take over from Theresa May and move the UK to the centre of the world.

Really? Well, with their Victorian way of looking at Britain and Europe, they might be able to bring the country back to the XIX Century. And make it imperial again!

Brexit: decision time

Theresa May’s leadership style can be criticised for many reasons. But it’s difficult to challenge her level of resolve, her determination.

The Prime Minister believes she must deliver the outcome of the 2016 referendum on Europe. Also, that the exit needs to be based on a deal between the UK and the EU.

There was a time when she repeatedly said that “no deal was better than a bad deal”. On that, she has changed her mind. Since last summer she has become fully convinced that an accord is necessary. And not just for the transition, not just for the short term. It’s critical for a mutually profitable relationship between her country and its major economic and security partner, the EU.

She is also sure that the draft deal she has negotiated with the Europeans is the best possible arrangement. Therefore, she will keep pressing on. Theresa May wants her proposal approved.

This week we will find out if she wins or loses. The coming days are crucial for the continuation of her leadership. 

This is now the time to go beyond the crossroads. I, like all of us here in Brussels, would prefer to see her determination rewarded.

Brexit time

We should remind ourselves that Brexit is not just a British issue. But, at this stage, the ball is in their court. And the most appropriate way forward would be to have the draft deal approved by the UK Parliament.

It seems difficult to achieve that. The No-deal camp is getting additional traction. Many see it as a possibility. It’s hard to understand such a position, but the fact of the matter is that the contingency planning for a No-deal is creating the impression, among some popular segments, that there will be a way out in case of no agreement. Also, that the related difficulties will be just temporary.

It’s strange as a reaction, certainly irrational, for many of us, but it’s also linked to the fact that a good number of British still believe in their superior approach to international relations. And the place of the UK in the world.

On the other hand, I think it’s too late for a second referendum. It takes time to go through the constitutional process that is required in the case of a referendum. Furthermore, I do not see enough political and media support for holding it. In the minds of many, such a consultation would open many wounds. The debate and the campaign would be deeply divisive. And nobody can be sure of its outcome. It could end up by giving more arguments and space to the populist politicians. These extremists have no bounds and would take advantage of this new referendum to challenge the established principles of representative democracy. They would try to confuse the voters as much as possible.

As such, this is no time to promote a new referendum. It’s Westminster and the May Cabinet that must take up their responsibilities and decide how they want to see the Brexit settled. And they will have to assume the political consequences as well.