Post May's politics

Theresa May has announced her resignation. The extremists within her party did everything they could to get her out. For these hard Brexiteers, the Prime Minister was too close to the EU. They hated her – yes, hate is the right word – for that. They are convinced that the UK is much smarter than the EU altogether and that Queen Victoria will come back, certainly under a new shape, and make Britain imperial again.

There is no rational way of dealing with those hardliners. It is all about emotions, British grandeur, and delusion. When that is the case, the best approach is to let them take care of their own business.

And wish them well. Particularly to the new Prime Minister, whoever that might be. He or she will need the good wishes of all of us. Plenty of them.

For us, the point is to let them know we would prefer a negotiated departure, as proposed in the Withdrawal Agreement. That’s the wise way to move to the next stage, as good neighbours. If that is not possible, because of the British political divisions, they still need to honour the commitments made up to the day of departure. There is no way they can forgo that. It is a legal obligation that must be clear to them and fully respected. The opposite would make the future relationship much more tense.

It's all Theresa May's fault!

In the UK, key Conservative opinion makers are now in a campaign to place all the blame on Prime Minister Theresa May.

Uncertainty, even confusion, and growing resentment define the current British political climate. Like the proverbial meteorology of those Isles, the climate around Brexit is foggy and unpleasant.

And they are openly saying, it is May’s fault! They add then: it comes from her lack of true enthusiasm for the exit ideals. Those Conservatives – and they are quite influential in the mainstream right-wing media, not just in the tabloid sheets – want to divert people’s attention from the inescapable issue, meaning, that the UK needs to agree on an exit deal with the EU. And that inevitable deal is the one that has been on the table since November 2018.

They also want to present some crazies – Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Ian Duncan Smith, among others – as true patriots, people that can take over from Theresa May and move the UK to the centre of the world.

Really? Well, with their Victorian way of looking at Britain and Europe, they might be able to bring the country back to the XIX Century. And make it imperial again!

Brexit means transformation

The Brexit crisis is creating the conditions for a new partisan alignment in the UK. Brexit is a major political earthquake. Therefore, it can seriously transform the British party landscape, something that has not happened for generations.  

Brexit means confusion and lies

The British people are today more divided and confused than any time in the past 75 years. The Brexit process, as conducted by the British, is a total mess. It has brought out a very high degree of intellectual intolerance and social arrogance. But, above all, it has shown that many within the political class are just concerned with their personal career and well-being. They do not care about the broader issues that we used to call the common good. The ideals are dead. We grew up believing that politics were about public service and patriotism. Now, many of these fools teach us that current political fights are about positions, media exposure and crushing the other side. They are also about promoting delusion and outright lies.

Brexit time

We should remind ourselves that Brexit is not just a British issue. But, at this stage, the ball is in their court. And the most appropriate way forward would be to have the draft deal approved by the UK Parliament.

It seems difficult to achieve that. The No-deal camp is getting additional traction. Many see it as a possibility. It’s hard to understand such a position, but the fact of the matter is that the contingency planning for a No-deal is creating the impression, among some popular segments, that there will be a way out in case of no agreement. Also, that the related difficulties will be just temporary.

It’s strange as a reaction, certainly irrational, for many of us, but it’s also linked to the fact that a good number of British still believe in their superior approach to international relations. And the place of the UK in the world.

On the other hand, I think it’s too late for a second referendum. It takes time to go through the constitutional process that is required in the case of a referendum. Furthermore, I do not see enough political and media support for holding it. In the minds of many, such a consultation would open many wounds. The debate and the campaign would be deeply divisive. And nobody can be sure of its outcome. It could end up by giving more arguments and space to the populist politicians. These extremists have no bounds and would take advantage of this new referendum to challenge the established principles of representative democracy. They would try to confuse the voters as much as possible.

As such, this is no time to promote a new referendum. It’s Westminster and the May Cabinet that must take up their responsibilities and decide how they want to see the Brexit settled. And they will have to assume the political consequences as well.

Brexit game

The Brexit formal discussions have finally been launched. The first meeting between the EU and the UK negotiators took place today. It was, from the European perspective, a good beginning.

The UK position evolved a great deal as a result of the popular vote in their recent general election. Today´s meeting showed a conciliatory approach. The British policy line seems to be to keep the country out of the EU political decisions and banner, and, at the same time, to maintain it strongly connected to Europe, including when it comes some critical political matters.

This policy is very British. It´s the extraordinary art of playing with ambivalence. To be out and in, depending which mirror you may use to look at the reality.

May´s rhetoric

The rhetoric the new UK Prime Minister is practising deserves attention. It signals a policy change, not just a different style of oratory. It aims at projecting a tough, hard-nosed nationalistic approach combined with populist overtones. 

But I am not fully sure it works. 

First, it is becoming repetitive, which shows a bit of an imagination deficit. It´s not too far from the broken disk sloganeering. Then, second, it´s not direct enough. It might not be fully understood by the working class fellow. It has an intellectual pretentiousness that contradicts the ambition of being close to the people. Thirdly, it sends a message of arrogance that is irritating some of the key European leaders.

Three questions about the Brexit

Today´s summit meeting of the EU Council is publicised by some of the key leaders as a decisive one. Why? Well, because of the UK´s demands. The threat of Brexit, the exit of the UK from the EU. Mr Cameron is asking for a new deal between his country and the rest of the EU. He needs it as a major contribution to his political survival strategy. If he can convince the British voters he has managed to twist the European arm that will consolidate him as party leader and also as Prime Minister.

There are many questions that could be raised about all this. But I will save my readers´ sanity and will only mention three of them.

First, this is meeting number 25. I explain. In the last five years or so, twenty-four meetings of the top EU leaders have been presented as critical. Today we have one more. There is a problem here: the frequency of “decisive meetings” has been too high. Maybe Europe is just moving from crisis to crisis, like a dangerously sick person.

Second, Brexit is above all a British issue. They are the ones that should decide if they want to keep the membership or not. Europe will continue and its construction, at a slower or faster pace, depending of the policy areas, is on the way. The leaders and the people of the UK should make their minds. Either they are in and participate in the vast majority of the common projects or they are out and sign some kind of free trade agreement with the EU.

Third, it is almost certain Cameron will lose the support of the British voters. The chances of a Brexit are very high. The EU cannot fall on its knees to please the British. Short of that, they will opt for the exit door.

I am one of those who believe it is time to be clear. Clear vis-à-vis our own citizens and clear regarding David Cameron´s political games. 

Cameron might lose the referendum on the EU

My column of today in the Visão magazine on line is about the relations between the EU and the UK. The text is in Portuguese, of course. My point is that the proposals made by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, should be supported. Some EU leaders think that Tusk has gone too far in terms of concessions. It is not really the case. He has been able to put together some generic rules that can be used by Britain and by any other country. They are based on David Cameron´s demands but do not give him everything he had asked for. Now it is up to the British Prime Minister to be able to convince his party and the voters that there is enough “reform” to justify the continuation of the UK within the EU. And that´s a big challenge. At this stage, I am afraid the referendum will be lost. Brexit is today a possibility. Cameron has to fight very hard to prevent that.  

The leader´s image matters a lot

I have seen a few leaders in my life. And I have learned that a true political leader is someone who can combine calmness, with strength of opinion and clarity of speech. They go under terrible stress all the times but do not show it.

Tonight I observed David Cameron as he was about to enter the European Council and found him bitter, nervous and heavy of speech. I thought he looks very stressed. 

The baby and the UK economy

Looking at the TV pictures on the Royal Baby, and seeing the crowds and the fever in the national media, I can only say to myself that the British will never stop amazing me.  Then, I look at the Financial Times and find there a very serious assessment of the baby’s impact on the economy. Great Britain, indeed!