Erdogan's game

I do not think Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is not listening to the protesters in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country. In my opinion, he is very much aware of the reasons for the demonstrations. He knows that many people in the big cities are opposed to his politics of “cultural change”. But he is inspired by a very strict approach to religion and does not want to give up. He thinks he is in a mission, to bring Islam back to the centre of public life in Turkey. He knows that many traditional sectors of society welcome that kind of approach. Therefore, there is political mileage in pursuing it, he believes. As he also seems to believe that he can do with the opponents in the cities as he did with the top military officers: to intimidate them, to put the leaders in prison, under bizarre charges, to invent treason plots, to silence them. He might be convinced he will succeed. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

Turkey on the streets

It is too early to be able to read the sense of the mass protests that are taking place in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities of Turkey.

To call these demonstrations a “Turkish Spring” would be to ignore that the situation in Turkey is not comparable to those prevailing in North Africa and some parts of the Middle East. The country is a democracy. One might disagree with the political philosophy that inspires Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, but one has to recognise that he has won the vote and has, in many ways, changed the country for the better.

However, Erdogan has to listen to facts and to the people on the streets. Turkey is not prepared for a more religious kind of approach to political life. And the Prime Minister should also understand that an electoral victory is not a licence to brush aside the opposing views. He won his fight against the military establishment, in some cases through very unorthodox and questionable means. But he cannot win against the people.