No to Erdogan's resettlement plan

President Erdogan of Turkey wants to repatriate a large number of Syrian refugees. His plan is to create several resettlement camps on the Syrian side of the border, in the “safe zone” his troops control, between the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

He is putting a lot of pressure on the UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The President wants the Secretary-General to bless the plan and convene a donor meeting to raise money for its implementation. Erdogan met Guterres yesterday and the meeting was vintage Erdogan: either the UN does it, or I will.

Things do not work like that when it comes to repatriation of refugees and the role of the UN. The Secretary-General must make it clear. Repatriation must take place on a voluntary basis, with strong security guarantees, and it cannot disturb the very fragile ethnic balances that define Northern Syria. It is also true that traditional donors are not ready to finance any plan imposed by force. But that is not the key issue. The point is that people must be willing to go back. I am sure that point is not met today.

The threat inside our common home

President Erdogan is not only on the wrong side of today’s world. He is also a serious threat to stability in some parts of Europe. Not to see it would be a mistake with a very high price. 

Supporting the Kurdish people in Syria

Turkey’s military invasion of North-Eastern Syria is illegal, from the international law perspective. It is also a tremendous political mistake, with many possible consequences. I have not seen a single country, among those who matter in international affairs and in the region, that has supported President Erdogan’s decision.

In this kind of dangerous military interventions experience has taught us that we know when the operation starts but nobody can predict when it will end. Erdogan’s people can find themselves caught in a never-ending drama.

Moreover, the Kurds of Syria have been brave allies of the anti-terrorist forces that have fought the Islamic State criminals. They have generated a very important capital of sympathy in Europe and the US. It is not only that we are indebted to their courage and fighting spirit. It is also that we all recognise that they have created a space of tranquillity and some type of normalcy in a country that has been in chaos. It is that order that President Erdogan is now destroying with his heavy artillery and fighter planes.

It is unacceptable.

The situation in Northeastern Syria

At the end of the day, there is a lot of confusion regarding what could be next in Northern Syria, at the border with Turkey.

Over the weekend, the US President seems to have told his Turkish counterpart he would not oppose any military action Turkey might take against the Kurds that live on the Syrian side of the border. It was like giving a green light to President Erdogan to move in and attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-dominated group that was a major ally of the Western powers in the battle against ISIS.

Now, and in view of the outcry his decision has arisen, including within the leadership of his own Republican Party, President Trump appears to be backpedalling. He even tweeted that the Turkish economy would be brought to its knees if something very wrong – what that means is unclear – would happen in Northern Syria.

Well, if there is an invasion of the Syrian territory, many wrong things will happen. One of them is about the message the West will be sending across the globe that they do not protect those who fought along side them. The other one concerns the fate of the ISIS prisoners. Thousands of them are being kept by the Syrian Democratic Forces/YPG. They would run away if the Kurds are under attack. That would bring back a number of terrorist cells to the region. In addition, any new war front in the region would certainly generate more displacements and human suffering. The civilian populations in Northern Syria would pay a high price for the Turkish invasion.

Besides the confusion, EU leaders must be clear and state without hesitation that any Turkish offensive in Northern Syria would be unacceptable. It is time to be firm with Erdogan. And unequivocal as well.  

South of Europe

In the Southern flank of the EU, just next door to all of us, the instability and systematic violations of people’s rights are growing by the day.

The area is a combination of several active political volcanoes. It is the situation in Libya and in most of North Africa plus the Sahel, vast area of absence of government. The Sahel was a semi-desert, now is a full-fledged governance desert. It is the deepening of the conflict between Israel and her neighbours. It is the all-out conflict in Yemen and the war crimes in Syria. Add to that, Iran and its fast deteriorating economic circumstances plus the armed competition with the vicinity and beyond, the violence in Afghanistan, the mess in Pakistan. And, of course, the crazy political line President Erdogan is following in his country.

The different components of this Southern neighbourhood are all extreme violent and with far reaching consequences. Mass movements are one of them. The complexity calls for a much better-defined EU political approach. It also requires more public attention. Leaders in Brussels and the capitals should be speaking about these matters more often and with better words. The words must be explicit, comprehensive and coherent.

Our role is to put pressure on our leaders for lines of action to be defined and the narrative to become strategic. And we should act with a strong sense of urgency.

TV shows that create the conditions for demagogues to win

People who spend too much time watching soap TV programmes should not be allowed to vote in elections that go beyond the affairs of local administration. This is certainly a shocking statement and of course, I do not mean it. Everyone has and should keep the right to vote. That is what democracy is about. Every vote matter, be it the one coming from a high-level scientist or from a uneducated person.

My initial phrase aims just at opening the debate about the influence of superficial TV shows on people’s views of their country and the world. I am one of those who is convinced that the competition between TV channels is narrowing down people’s capacity to have a full and intelligent view of their surroundings and the world at large. TV shows are contributing to the development of a majority of voters that do not understand what is going on, do not care about the common good and, in the end, become vulnerable to the crude rhetoric of people such as Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jair Bolsonaro or Rodrigo Duterte, to cite just a few of them.  

These politicians take advantage of such alienation. They are experts at proposing basic answers to complex issues. They know people can identify themselves with a simpler view of things.

The democratic combat is therefore about fighting banality and stupidity on TV. The younger generations are no longer as connected to traditional TV as the older ones. They prefer to make use of their cell phones and get their information through them. It is not always a good option, but in general is better than TV and their ridiculous treatment of the news and minor issues. But older age groups are still very dependent on what they get through the TV channels, in a classical way of accessing information and entertainment. They are the people that need to watch better TV programmes. They also deserve it, as an expression of respect. 

Big corporations should be under pressure to withdraw publicity that is linked to substandard TV shows. That is a way of approaching the matter.

On Bastille Day, defence matters

On this Bastille Day 2019, I think we can draw two very clear lines.

First, the European defence must be taken seriously. Our countries share a common set of values. Furthermore, they have pooled several political decisions that show the ambition to create a joint political space. This goes much deeper than any alliance with our non-European friends, including those who have historical ties with Europe. In view of that and because at a certain point our geostrategic interests might diverge from those defined by our non-European allies, it is much wise to build our own independent capacity to fight for our ideas and well-being.

This is a step-by-step endeavour. It might take a bit of time to be completed. But it is now time to initiate its construction.

That message came out clearly from Paris as the Bastille celebrations were taking place.

The second message is about Turkey. President Erdogan has now opted for the Russian S-400 missiles. That is a major challenge to NATO and a very serious breach of Turkey’s commitment to the organisation. He must be told we do not accept his decision. He might not listen to such advice, as he will state his country’s independence of choice. OK, that is fine. But we can no longer take Turkey as a full ally. We ought to make it clear to President Erdogan and limit Turkey’s access to key military and defence information systems available in the West.

It is true we should not mix this matter with Turkey’s ambition to become a EU country. This are two separate matters. However, on the EU issue I think it is also time to be clear.

The new European leadership team

On international affairs, the new European leadership team will have to deal with an interesting deck of cards. I mean the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the US Donald Trump, the very strategic Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, the unreliable Boris Johnson in the UK, just to mention some of them. I could add Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu in Israel, if he survives the next round of elections, Nicolás Maduro, and so on. That is a most unique scenario that is waiting for them. The international scene shows all the signs of a perfect storm. And I am not mentioning the tricky situation around Iran, a major epicentre of a potential catastrophe. 

On the domestic front, within the EU space, they will be confronting Matteo Salvini, the strong man in Italy, Viktor Orbán and his neighbours in the Czech Republic and Poland, political instability in Belgium, Spain and Romania, as well as lots of pressure to move faster in areas that divide the European nations, such as the common defence, the climate emergency, the Brexit negotiations, and the pivot to Africa.

This is a most challenging environment. It requires a very strong and united leadership team. Not easy, not easy at all for a team that comes to power almost by chance. Let’s keep watching how strong and determined the new team is.

Istanbul and Erdogan's nightmare

President Erdogan’s candidate has been plainly defeated today. This was a repeat of the Istanbul municipal elections. The first ones, in May, had been marginally won by the opposition candidate. But Erdogan could not accept such defeat. He managed to get that round of elections annulled. Today, the loss is much bigger. The people of Istanbul wanted to send a very clear message to Erdogan. They spoke loud and clear. We will see how the President will react in the near future. He is not a man to accept a defeat. He sees it as a major threat to his absolute authority. Therefore, we can expect he will make it very difficult for the winner, Ekrem İmamoğlu, as well as for all those he sees as supporting him.

Erdogan is not a democrat when he is not the winner.

Turkey´s path

It´s worrisome to see the Turkish society being pushed towards more political radicalisation and deeper national divisions. It´s also a matter of great concern to watch its leadership moving away from accepted democratic principles. And taking the country in a direction that is contrary to greater proximity with the EU. 

Syria´s broken deals

The rumours about the Syria´s talks sponsored by Russia are in the air. Turkey and Iran would also be god fathering the process.

One of questions – and there are many difficult ones – concerns the price Russia will have to pay to get Turkey on its side, in particular when it comes to accepting Assad´s continuation as head of State for a few more years.

My impression is that such price is related to the future of the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. To get Erdogan on its side, Putin might have agreed to start attacking the YPG forces one off these days. The pretext would be that the Kurds are not part of the peace deal and should therefore be considered as terrorists. That Russian move would respond to a major strategic goal for the Turks: to prevent the Kurds from establishing any stronghold in Syria.

But all this is heavy on wishful thinking. The complexity of the situation on the ground is such that a deal like the one being prepared by this trio is far from being done. Particularly because it is not an inclusive one as it excludes not only the Kurds but others. And also because Assad is now convinced he can achieve a military solution. 

Russia and Turkey: a relationship beyond death

The assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey should be condemned with very strong words. It is clearly an act that can have no justification. And it will not contribute a single inch to the solution of the tragic situation the Syrian population is going through.

It would also be a mistake to think that this vile act will have a major impact on the relations between Russia and Turkey. This is no time for exaggerations. And both countries seem to have find a common interest: to sort out the destiny of Syria without involving other major international players into the game.

I am afraid however that this sad incident of today might give the Turkish authorities an additional excuse to intensify the ongoing climate of repression. The Police could be the main target. But it will also spill over into other sectors of the nation. And it will be a harsh response. One reason could be to show to the Russians that the Turkish government is not taking this murder lightly. The other one would certainly be related to the continuing plan to silence any opposition to Erdogan´s authoritarian rule.

In support of democracy in Turkey

I have a lot of admiration for the Turkish people that dare to come to the public squares and streets to demonstrate for human rights and democracy. Besides this appreciation, there isn´t much we can do, here in Europe, to support their risky struggle. To recognise their courage is just a small gesture. It is however important. It is a way of saying that the current actions by the Turkish government do not respect the accepted democratic standards. And to that, we can add, with great concern, a very clear statement: if the authorities continue the current policy of mass repression that will generate, sooner or later, a major civil crisis. Too bad, as it will happen in a region that is already experiencing major disruptions and unacceptable levels of violence.

On Turkey and Iraq

At the same time the offensive against the Islamic State terrorists moves on towards Mosul city, we have seen a very serious Turkish military build-up on the border areas with Iraq. Apparently the leadership in Ankara has decided to launch a major armed operation inside Iraq, as a means of stopping the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

This Kurdish group is seen as major threat by the Turkish government.

But one should be aware that any major military incursion into Iraq would further complicate a very delicate and dangerous situation. The Turkish authorities have the right to defend their borders. There is no ambiguity about that. However, they should refrain from getting deeply involved in the internal affairs of Iraq. That would add fire to the region. 

Turkey: a major shock

The fast moving circumstances in Turkey are now a major headache for that country´s Western allies. Actually, it is more accurate to say that today´s situation is causing a massive shock in our leading circles. Our leaders cannot believe their eyes. They see a level of revenge that is just unacceptable. And they also see that the key institutions of Turkey are under a very serious attack. That starts with the Armed Forces, which are now extremely fragile, confused, frightened and humiliated. That´s certainly not good at all for a country that is located in an extremely complex and dangerous region of the world. And we can expect more complications in the days to come.

The Turkish dilemmas

One should be very worried by the developing situation in Turkey. From a domestic point of view, it is essential to be guided by democratic values and full respect of the rule of law. From a European point of view, the situation brings a great deal of additional complexity to a relationship that was already very challenging. 

Erdogan and Putin

The tensions between Turkey and Russia are peaking. And this is an extremely worrisome development. In the case of Turkey, the Russian support to the Assad regime in Syria and the recent progression of Syrian Kurdish fighters, who are getting closer to the border are North of Aleppo are both seen as a matter of acute national interest. Regarding Russia, the destabilising of President Erdogan´s political power is a matter of retaliation – and revenge is deeply important in the political traits that define the Russian nationalistic soul – as well as a major chance to undermine the NATO alliance. In such circumstances, the stakes are very high for both sides. And the escalation seems unavoidable, with an incredible array of dramatic consequences. More so because the leaders of each side have an immense political ego. They are more inclined to fall whilst fighting than to accept compromise. And that´s the best recipe for a greater tragedy in the region and beyond.   

Russia should follow a diplomatic approach

It would be a serious misjudgment to ignore the gravity of today´s incident between Turkey and Russia. Both countries are led by hawks and when that type of birds clash one gets hurt. It is therefore in our interest, as NATO allies, and in the interest of a political solution to the conflict in Syria to help both sides to de-escalate the confrontation.

One can expect a political response from the Russian side. And that´s acceptable. But it should remain a diplomatic move. Everything beyond that could easily get out of control. 

President Erdogan ´s victory should be an opportunity for moderation

President Erdogan´s party has won today´s general elections in Turkey. As the victory is not a political tsunami, but enough to give him a solid majority in the national Parliament, one could hope for a certain degree of moderation to be restored to Turkish politics.

This is however very unlikely. I am afraid Erdogan will continue to press for a domestic agenda that combines religious conservatism with a strong shade of despotism. But he can count with very serious civil society demonstrations. People in the big cities are not really prepared for additional limitations to their freedoms. In addition, the Kurdish question will not fade away. It is actually calling for a renewed approach to dialogue and reconciliation. Erdogan cannot respond to such a call with weapons, arrests and brute force.

On the external front, Erdogan will have to play a constructive role in Syria. That´s his most important contribution to peace and stability in the region. He will be also under some kind of European pressure to bring under control the human trafficking that is taking place on the Turkish shores of the Mediterranean Sea. To claim he is in charge and at the same time allow free space for traffickers and other criminal elements to take advantage of the human misery is a major contradiction that needs to be exposed.

The leaders within the EU have also to be better at defining a common approach to Ankara. Such an approach cannot be dictated by despair, by the leaders´ incapacity to deal with the refugee flows that have their assembly points in Turkey.

Fighting for democracy in Turkey

It requires a lot of courage to be an active democratic opponent of President Erdogan of Turkey. I certainly admire those who in Parliament, in the media and on the streets, through their participation in rallies for democratic rule, dare to express their views. The risks are high. They call for a lot of bravery.