Istanbul and Erdogan's nightmare

President Erdogan’s candidate has been plainly defeated today. This was a repeat of the Istanbul municipal elections. The first ones, in May, had been marginally won by the opposition candidate. But Erdogan could not accept such defeat. He managed to get that round of elections annulled. Today, the loss is much bigger. The people of Istanbul wanted to send a very clear message to Erdogan. They spoke loud and clear. We will see how the President will react in the near future. He is not a man to accept a defeat. He sees it as a major threat to his absolute authority. Therefore, we can expect he will make it very difficult for the winner, Ekrem İmamoğlu, as well as for all those he sees as supporting him.

Erdogan is not a democrat when he is not the winner.

Istanbul, Europe and Merkel

Today´s terrorist attack in Istanbul must be unequivocally condemned. The victims and their families as well as the people of the city and of Turkey deserve our deepest sympathies and the strongest expression of our solidarity.

We should also profoundly worry as this act shows a very high level of strategic planning.

First, it targeted the core of the tourism industry in the emblematic city of Istanbul. It aimed at attacking the city´s image, the efficiency of the security services, who were in high alert, and the economy of the country. It is also an act of revenge against the government´s recent crackdown on Islamic State activities.

Second, it was clearly directed against German tourists above all. I do not think this is a coincidence. It was certainly a deliberate choice. The ultimate objective was to contribute to undermine Angela Merkel´s authority. The German Chancellor has been very responsive to the plight of the Syrian refugees. Such an approach is contrary to the message the Islamic State terrorists would like to put across the Muslim world. They wanted to show that the key European leader – and Europe for that matter – had a hostile approach to Muslim people.

They would also want to see Europe in crisis as a result of the mass arrival of refugees. Merkel´s leadership has prevented the potential crisis from materialising. In their view, she has to be seriously destabilised for Europe to lose direction and balance. 

Erdogan's game

I do not think Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is not listening to the protesters in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country. In my opinion, he is very much aware of the reasons for the demonstrations. He knows that many people in the big cities are opposed to his politics of “cultural change”. But he is inspired by a very strict approach to religion and does not want to give up. He thinks he is in a mission, to bring Islam back to the centre of public life in Turkey. He knows that many traditional sectors of society welcome that kind of approach. Therefore, there is political mileage in pursuing it, he believes. As he also seems to believe that he can do with the opponents in the cities as he did with the top military officers: to intimidate them, to put the leaders in prison, under bizarre charges, to invent treason plots, to silence them. He might be convinced he will succeed. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

Turkey on the streets

It is too early to be able to read the sense of the mass protests that are taking place in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities of Turkey.

To call these demonstrations a “Turkish Spring” would be to ignore that the situation in Turkey is not comparable to those prevailing in North Africa and some parts of the Middle East. The country is a democracy. One might disagree with the political philosophy that inspires Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, but one has to recognise that he has won the vote and has, in many ways, changed the country for the better.

However, Erdogan has to listen to facts and to the people on the streets. Turkey is not prepared for a more religious kind of approach to political life. And the Prime Minister should also understand that an electoral victory is not a licence to brush aside the opposing views. He won his fight against the military establishment, in some cases through very unorthodox and questionable means. But he cannot win against the people.