Greece´s
financial situation is now reaching a breaking point. We might have a surprise
in the coming week or so as it is abundantly clear that the public coffers are
more or less dry. The State´s engine is now running on fumes, no longer on real
fuel. The chances of agreement with its European creditors have become pretty
remote. They still exist, it is true. But they seem very unlikely.
If there is
an agreement it will be in response to the surprise I anticipate, to a major
default crisis, a precipitated reaction to tears and shouts. Drama first, spur-of-the-moment
repairs afterwards.
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