Kim's vital agenda

You meet, negotiate and believe in Kim Jong-un at your own risk. And that’s a very high level of risk, I should add. Nevertheless, it must be done, and surely, with no illusion about the person who is sitting on the other side of the table.

Kim’s ultimate objective is to remain in power. He has no other option, if one considers the criminal and violent actions that he has behind him. Power means impunity. Absolute power means total impunity. In such circumstances, he is determined to decisively tackle anything that might challenge his goal.

I think he believes that the vital threat to his continued control of the North Korean system comes from the other side of the border, from South Korea. Not because of South Korea’s military might, no. It is because of the economic success and the type of society that South Korea represents. That, sooner or later, will end up by having a major impact on the attitude of the population in the North. It has the potential to be the key source of instability.  

Therefore, he wants to keep some kind of superiority vis-à-vis the South. And the only one he can bet on is on the military side. But for that, he must get the Americans out of South Korea. That’s what he is trying to achieve.

At the same time, he is also looking for an end to the economic sanctions. He knows that the sanctions bite. They make the comparison between the standards of living in the North and the South even more dangerous.

These are two elements that must remain at the centre of any future round of negotiations. And please, no illusions, no unnecessary warmth.