Translation of today’s opinion piece I publish in Diário de Notícias
(Lisbon)
I
do not want to start this regular dialogue with the reader without having the
pandemic as the first topic. It is true that it is a beaten subject, with many
people reflecting on what the world could be like once the virus has been
defeated. A good part of these reflections is inspired by the principle of the
crystal ball, a technique that has been perfected over time by all sorts of
fortune-tellers. Other thinkers see in the unfolding of the pandemic the
confirmation of their ideological obsessions. They take the opportunity to
attack left and right. For them, the pandemic confirms the death of
neoliberalism or globalization, even of capitalism, they warm up by pointing
out the climatic causes, they greet in advance the end of American hegemony or
the failure of the European project and so on. For many of these intellectuals,
futurism seems to rhyme with unrealism.
It
is indeed fundamental to know how to look to the future. We are aware that the
great transformations came from those who could see beyond the horizon. One
hundred years after the misnamed "Spanish flu", the coronavirus
pandemic is the biggest shock after World War II. It is like a global tsunami.
The world is working in slow motion or even still, in some cases. What was
until March a global village has become an archipelago of isolated islands. The
drawbridges are all raised, in fear of the contagion that might come from the
neighbour. We live in a time of anxieties and fears. However, despite the
uncertainties, it is not unreasonable to predict that tomorrow's world order
will be vastly different from the one we have been building until the beginning
of this year. Without getting into the crystal ball game, I predict that the
issues of mass poverty, as it exists in certain parts of the globe, social
inequalities, in the most developed societies, the deterioration of the
environment and competition among superpowers will dominate the agenda of the
future.
Each
of these issues brings with it a web of other questions, which show the
complexity of what lies ahead. On the other hand, it is necessary to overcome
the social indifference that has taken hold of people. Presently, each one is
concerned only with dealing with himself. One closes oneself in one's shell to
the difficulties of others. Many political leaders then draw the conclusion
that what is important is what happens in the domestic space, as if it were possible
to stop the problems at the doorstep of the nation, with the lowering of a
border barrier. From there to the crisis of the multilateral system is a
dwarf's step, made easier the more timid or confused those at the head of the
international institutions are.
The
competition between the superpowers worries me. I see the United States and
China taking a dangerous route. The pandemic has accelerated the conflict,
particularly on the American side. New tensions and constant accusations
against the opponent could lead to a false step, which would have profoundly
serious consequences for all of us. Meanwhile, both sides are seeking to
increase the number of their supporters in the international arena. Allies is
not the exact word. What each of them wants is to create a circle of vassal
states, which follow the political line defined in Washington or Beijing and
limit the access given to the other side. This is the growing trend in the
American relationship with Europe. They are succeeding with Boris Johnson, who
has just made a political U-turn regarding Huawei. And they are continuing to
press other European governments in the same direction and on several other
issues as well. The only strategic response, however, is to maintain a certain
distance between the two opposing parties by strengthening European
sovereignty. The pandemic has taught us the term social distance'. Europe now
needs to learn the practice of political distance.
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