And the prize goes to China
Victor Angelo
In
the big game of geopolitics, the 2020 world cup must be awarded to China. It
has been an exceedingly difficult year for all countries. But here I see that
the only one that really comes out stronger, after all the tests, is China.
Australia and New Zealand played well, but they are in another league. They do
not have by far the political weight of the champion.
The
year had started badly, with the city of Wuhan - 11 million inhabitants - at
the centre of the concerns. But a strong, extremely nationalistic response and
a population shaped by the modern version of ancient Confucianism - those in
power command, and the ones who walk the streets of life obey - has turned
control of the virus into a political victory for the ruling elite. Above all,
for President Xi Jinping.
And
the year ended with another goal, scored in the final minutes, with the
conclusion of negotiations on investment between China and the European Union.
This agreement, important for both sides, had been under discussion for seven
years. The drag on this was due to Chinese obstruction, who wanted to have
their hands free to invest in Europe while creating obstacles to European
ventures in China. Finally, and before Joe Biden took office, Beijing felt it
was important to close the pact with the Europeans, thus moving them away from
a more combative position that the new American administration might adopt. For
the Europeans, the agreement opens the door to investments in finance, health,
energy and information technology. If it is respected, it will represent a step
forward in rebalancing economic relations between the two sides. The treaty
also seeks to defend intellectual property rights and promote certain
international labour standards, but without conviction. The Chinese authorities
leave no room for manoeuvre in this area, notably in the abolition of forced
labour for prisoners or ethnic minorities.
Beyond
the economics, our problem with China is above all political. It concerns human
rights and democratic values. And there I see no agreement on the horizon, and
I guess, not in the distant future. The successes of 2020 and the accentuation
of nationalism and Chinese pride, easy to press in the face of confusion in our
part of the world, have strengthened the legitimacy and power of Xi Jinping.
This legitimacy rests on two main pillars - economic opportunities for most
citizens and the maintenance of internal order, including civic discipline.
Only this week, when I spoke, as I regularly do, with my correspondents in
China, I heard those two dimensions highlighted once more. In response to my
references to human rights and democracy, a young Chinese woman reminded me
that her generation, even those who have obtained academic degrees abroad and
observed how freedoms work in other lands, makes no waves. Young people with
higher education prefer to take advantage of the jobs and prosperity that remain
immense in a rapidly growing China with a huge internal market. I was told that
the number of applications for scholarships in the US and Europe for the next
school year has grown considerably. The ambition is to obtain diplomas in prestigious
institutions and then return to the market of opportunities that is China.
Here, too, the Xi Jinping regime has succeeded in instilling two beliefs. One,
that in the long run there will be no future for Chinese graduates who want to
settle in the West, because of the growing mistrust that is said to exist there
of anyone who might be seen as a surreptitious agent of the Beijing government.
Another is that the future belongs to China, which will be the world's largest
economy in the coming years, perhaps as early as 2028.
We
enter 2021 with a China that feels more powerful and bold, even invincible. But
history has long taught us that all giants have feet of clay. Xi Jinping's
China, if it does not introduce a certain amount of prudence into its international
relations, including moderation in the overmuch New Silk Road and acceptance of
fundamental human values, may end up stumbling over its own arrogance and
gigantism.
(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the
Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)
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